Wes Renoylds advised skipping Patrick Cantlay in the outright market, even though the California native has never finished worse than 15th in eight consecutive Travelers starts and posted 5th and 4th the last two years. Renoylds thinks Cantlay’s current form is merely "all right"—solid but nowhere near elite—and the market is still pricing him as if a win is imminent. Renoylds expects Cantlay to flash later in the summer, possibly during the FedEx Cup Playoffs, but is content to let the iron-clad course history beat him this week. He may use Cantlay in conservative placement bets but refuses to pay a sub-20-1 number for a player whose ball-striking has slipped outside the top-25 over the past two months.

Renoylds fired on Tom Hoge at 125-1, pointing out that Hoge gained 4.5 strokes ball-striking in just two rounds at the U.S. Open before missing the cut on the number. That two-round SG figure would have been top-5 in the entire field, underscoring how dialed-in the irons are. Hoge finished 3rd here last year and is arguably a top-10 wedge player on Tour. If the putter merely breaks even, Renoylds thinks Hoge can ride elite proximity numbers to a leaderboard spike at monster odds.

Renoylds took Daniel Berger at 50-1 despite a five-year Travelers absence. Berger was runner-up here in 2017, fifth in 2016, and finished 3rd on another Pete Dye track (Harbour Town) earlier this season. His shot-shaping off the tee and elite mid-iron control fit River Highlands’ club-down template, and Renoylds highlighted Berger’s top-5 Pete Dye strokes-gained profile over the last 36 rounds. The books have not adjusted for that specialist angle, making 50-1 a buy signal.

Renoylds bought back into Cameron Young at 50-1 after the New Yorker’s T4 at Oakmont gave him three top-7 finishes in his last five starts. Stat sheets from RickRunGood show nothing but green—Young is gaining across every strokes-gained category. He finished 9th at River Highlands last year and grew up on Northeast Bent/Poa greens, making this the closest thing to a home game. Renoylds believes the combination of current form, course history and regional comfort makes Young a high-ceiling outright ticket.

Renoylds grabbed Russell Henley at 40-1 (lamenting missed 50s) because Henley keeps thriving in big spots—top-10 at the U.S. Open and three of the last five majors—and already owns a signature-event win this season at Bay Hill. Henley currently occupies the sixth and final automatic Ryder Cup slot, so he has massive incentive to lock things up. He has been inside the top three entering Sunday in three of seven Travelers appearances, and Renoylds believes the shorter, precision-based layout now meshes even better with Henley’s elite fairway-and-wedges profile.

Wes Renoylds bet Keegan Bradley outright at 35-1, citing a perfect storm of form and motivation. Bradley won this event in 2023, was runner-up in 2019, and ranked 4th in Strokes-Gained: Around-the-Green at Oakmont last week. He logged top-10 finishes at both the PGA Championship (8th) and the Memorial (7th) and now carries added incentive as U.S. Ryder Cup captain—he needs a win to justify picking himself if he doesn’t qualify on points. Renoylds thinks River Highlands is Bradley’s best chance to punch that ticket.

Wes Renoylds said Collin Morikawa is a buy-low option for the Travelers after turning in one of the most lopsided stat lines of his career at the U.S. Open. Morikawa ranked 1st in the field in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Tee-to-Green, 18th Around-the-Green and 29th Off-the-Tee among players who made the cut, but finished dead last in putting, surrendering almost nine strokes on the greens – the worst PGA-Tour putting performance of his career. Renoylds argued that small, pure Bent/Poa greens at TPC River Highlands should mute Morikawa’s weakness, and any neutral week with the flat stick immediately puts him in contention on a 6,844-yard layout that de-emphasizes driving distance. With winning scores pushing 22-under the last two seasons, Renoylds expects a birdie fest in which Morikawa’s elite wedge game can finally translate into scoring if he merely gains a stroke or two with the putter. He recommended outrights and DFS exposure before markets price in obvious putting-regression upside.