Reynolds also tacked on Sam Burns at 30-1. Burns rode a hot short game to a T4 last week, ranking second in both Strokes Gained: Putting and Scrambling, and Reynolds thinks that touch will translate to the Tour Championship’s Bermuda greens where Burns historically excels. A strong week would bolster Burns’ case for a Ryder Cup captain’s pick, giving added motivation. In a soft, rain-affected East Lake setup where avoiding bogeys is critical, Reynolds prefers Burns’ elite short-game ceiling and believes the price is too long for a proven Bermuda specialist in a 30-player shoot-out.

Reynolds grabbed Viktor Hovland at 30-1, citing a combination of course history and elite iron play. Hovland captured the FedEx Cup two years ago with the low 72-hole score, finished 4th in 2021, and 8th last year, so he clearly likes East Lake. Statistically he ranks second on the PGA TOUR this season in Strokes Gained: Approach, trailing only Scottie Scheffler, and he was third in that same category at the BMW. Reynolds views East Lake as an approach-scoring venue and thinks Hovland’s lifetime form plus the generous price in a 30-man field make him one of the few with realistic win equity if Scheffler slips.

Wes Reynolds fired another bullet at 14-1 on Tommy Fleetwood to win the Tour Championship. Reynolds acknowledged the emotional scars of past Fleetwood tickets but thinks the form is too good to ignore: Fleetwood was one of only three players in last week’s BMW field who gained strokes in every category (off-the-tee, approach, around-the-green, and putting), joining Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland. Southwind, where that event was played, has long been a strong corollary course to East Lake, and Reynolds noted Fleetwood was the best player on the course for most of the week before fading. With just 30 players in the field and fairway-first rough similar to what he just conquered, Reynolds believes the Englishman’s balanced game and elite par-4 scoring give him real win equity despite his limited East Lake history.

Wes Reynolds bet Daniel Berger at 50-1 mainly on unrivaled course pedigree: victories here in 2016 and 2017 and four top-five finishes in five career Memphis starts. Statistically Berger is a dream fit, ranking second in Total Driving, ninth in SG: Approach (+0.612), 10th in Fairways Hit (65.49%), sixth in Good Drive Percentage (84.28%) and ninth in Scrambling (62.56%). Although his hot early-season form has cooled, Reynolds thinks the no-cut setup and Ryder Cup motivation could reignite Berger’s spike-week potential on his favorite track.

Wes Reynolds grabbed Sepp Straka at 45-1, citing the Austrian’s fourth-place ranking in SG: Approach (+0.864) and elite wedge proximity—second from 125-150 yards and fourth from 150-175. Straka owns 12 top-15s this season with wins at the American Express and Truist Championship and was a playoff runner-up at Southwind in 2022. He also sits 13th in Good Drive Percentage (83.33%) and fifth in Fairways Hit (66.75%), traits Reynolds sees as crucial with water lurking on 11 holes. Given quadruple FedExCup points and Straka’s proven ability to close at 60-1 earlier this year, Reynolds views 45-1 as mispriced.

Wes Reynolds played Viktor Hovland at 35-1 because only Scottie Scheffler has gained more strokes on approach in 2025. Hovland finished runner-up at Southwind a year ago and already proved his mettle on similar strategic, tree-lined layouts with a victory at the Valspar Championship earlier this season. He leads the field in proximity from 175-200 yards (16.17 feet gained) and ranks 16th in Total Driving, a vital combo on a course featuring the sixth-narrowest fairways and 11 water-hazard holes. Reynolds argues those ball-striking numbers give Hovland an outsized win equity relative to his price.

Wes Reynolds advised grabbing Collin Morikawa at 34-1, noting this is the first time all season the two-time major winner has drifted into the mid-30s despite Scottie Scheffler anchoring the field. Morikawa is second in Opportunities Gained over his last 50 rounds (46.7) and tops the PGA Tour in Fairways Hit (71.33%) behind only Aaron Rai. Although he missed the cut at both the Scottish and British Opens, Morikawa was eighth at the Rocket Mortgage Classic immediately beforehand and features fifth-place proximity numbers across key 125-200-yard ranges. With Mark Urbanek on the bag this week and Ryder Cup positioning still on the line, Reynolds believes Southwind’s approach-heavy test is the perfect spot to “buy the dip” on an elite iron player.

Wes Reynolds backed Russell Henley at 30-1, pointing to a razor-sharp tee-to-green game tailor-made for TPC Southwind’s narrow Zoysiagrass corridors. Henley ranks third in Good Drive Percentage (85.79%), sixth in Fairways Hit (66.48%) and shares 13th in SG: Approach (+0.573). He is historically strongest on Bermuda greens and arrives red-hot with top-10s at both the U.S. Open and British Open plus a runner-up at the Travelers and a fifth at the Memorial in his last five starts. Past Memphis form—T7 in 2016 and 2023—reinforces Reynolds’ view that Henley’s accuracy and reliable Bermuda putting give him a high ceiling in this first FedExCup playoff event.

Wes Reynolds said Tommy Fleetwood is worth an outright ticket at 25-1 because TPC Southwind accentuates every strength in Fleetwood’s profile. Fleetwood ranks eighth on the PGA Tour this season in Strokes Gained: Approach (+0.628 per round), sits 14th in Good Drive Percentage (83.26%) and top-10 in Scrambling (62.56%). He also gains 6.33 feet per round on approach shots from 150-175 yards, a key bucket for two-thirds of iron shots here. Course history is another arrow in the quiver: a third-place finish in 2023 and a fourth in 2019 prove he can navigate Southwind’s dog-legs and ever-present water. With Cameron Young breaking through last week, Reynolds believes Fleetwood—already a seven-time winner on the DP World Tour—“is owed one” on U.S. soil and is positioned to convert in a no-cut playoff setting.

At 80-1, Reynolds went back to Bud Cauley, citing both course history and skill-set fit. Cauley finished 3rd at the 2012 Wyndham and owns two additional top-15s on the layout, a record Reynolds finds notable given Cauley’s injury-interrupted career. The Alabama product thrives on fairway-centric tracks, evidenced by four top-six finishes this spring—including a 3rd at Colonial, another venue Reynolds uses as a Sedgefield comp. Still hunting his first PGA TOUR victory and safely inside the FedEx Cup playoffs, Cauley should be fully motivated and sets up as a prime top-10 and outright sprinkle.

Reynolds took a stab at Andrew Novak at 66-1 after spotting strong crossover form between the RBC Heritage and Wyndham. Novak lost a playoff at this year’s RBC—another tight, positional Donald Ross design—and Reynolds noted multiple players have won both events over the past two decades. The Zurich team-event winner also sits 13th in the Ryder Cup standings, giving him a real incentive to impress U.S. captain Keegan Bradley this week. Reynolds believes Novak’s combination of accurate driving and above-average wedges makes him live in a field lacking star power.

Wes Reynolds grabbed Lucas Glover at 35-1, leaning on Glover’s elite fairway-finding and approach play that powered his 2023 Wyndham victory. Glover ranks inside the field’s top-10 for good-drive percentage and strokes-gained approach over the past 24 rounds, trends Reynolds sees as critical on Sedgefield’s narrow, Donald Ross corridors. The former U.S. Open champ already owns five top-10s this season, highlighted by a 5th at John Deere, 9th at Travelers, and 3rd at THE PLAYERS—all courses where hitting fairways is mandatory. Sitting comfortably inside the FedEx Cup top-30, Glover can secure a TOUR Championship berth with another big week, giving Reynolds confidence to invest in the outright and matchup markets.

Reynolds took a swing on Tom Hoge at triple-digits, calling the 3M a ‘class drop’ after months of majors and signature events. Hoge finished 4th here in 2022 and still ranks top-20 in SG: Approach despite a slight dip this season. Reynolds thinks freed from elite-field pressure, Hoge’s iron game can dominate a layout with giant greens and plentiful birdie chances, turning 100-to-1 into serious value for outrights and top-20 tickets.

Reynolds added Andrew Putnam at 70-to-1, noting Putnam has finished inside the top-20 in his last two trips to the 3M Open and enters off an 11th at Barracuda, 8th in Detroit, and 6th in Canada. While not a bomber, Putnam’s tidy fairway-first game and red-hot wedges neutralize the course’s length when scores get super low. Reynolds will back him in outright and placement markets, leaning on consistent summer form and proven comfort at TPC Twin Cities.

Wes Reynolds fired on Rico Hoey at 60-to-1 after noticing Hoey now ranks No. 1 on tour in the PGA’s ball-striking composite (total driving + GIR), even ahead of Scottie Scheffler. Hoey is fresh off an 8th at Barracuda and 11th at John Deere, signaling the form is converging with the metrics. Reynolds believes that combination of statistical ceiling and triple-digit power off the tee is tailor-made for a 20-under birdie fest, making the price far too long.

Reynolds took Kurt Kitayama at 40-to-1, highlighting a potent mix of course fit and motivation. Kitayama finished 6th here on debut and currently sits 110th in the FedEx Cup standings, forcing him to chase points in the season’s final sprint. Recent results—5th at John Deere and 14th at Barracuda—show the all-world ball-striker rounding into form. Reynolds thinks urgency plus a track that rewards distance will coax kitayama’s Sunday A-game and make 40-1 a bargain.

Reynolds bet Michael Thorbjornsen at 35-to-1, citing a string of near-misses in similar low-scoring Midwest setups: runner-up at Corrales, second at last year’s John Deere, and one shot short of a playoff three weeks ago in Detroit. The amateur-turned-pro thrives when scores push into the –20s, and his consistent tee-to-green game yields boatloads of birdie looks. Reynolds is unconcerned about popularity in the betting market, arguing that Thorbjornsen’s proven ceiling outweighs any odds drift caused by public interest.

Wes Reynolds grabbed Kevin Yu at 50-to-1 outright and will tack on placements. Yu owns four top-25s in his last eight starts and, most importantly, has gained strokes putting in seven of his past eight—an uncharacteristic spike for a player whose flatstick is usually the drag on his profile. Reynolds pointed to Yu’s near-miss in Canada and top-15 average ranking across three separate models as proof that the ball-striking baseline remains elite. With the putter finally cooperating, Reynolds believes Yu’s win equity far exceeds a 2% implied probability in this field.

Wes Reynolds admitted he has to change his approach and start using markets that exclude Scottie Scheffler after repeatedly getting burned. Reynolds noted Scheffler has now made outright betting almost Tiger-like, winning majors even when bookmakers post him at just 4-to-1. Because Scheffler led the last major in approach, putting and posted another wire-to-wire top-10, Reynolds believes clinging to traditional outright habits is simply stubborn. Going forward he plans to math out the value of ‘without Scheffler’ markets or heavier placement exposure rather than trying to fade the world No. 1 directly.

Wes Reynolds highlighted Tom McKibbin at 150-1 (Circa Sports) as the ultimate home-course dart. The 22-year-old Northern Irishman is a member at Royal Portrush and knows Dunluce Links better than anyone in the field. McKibbin brings form too: he’s logged top-5 finishes in his last two LIV events, including 4th at Valderrama, and owns six worldwide top-7s this season. With intimate course knowledge and confidence surging, Reynolds argued the local kid has genuine top-10 and even upset potential at massive odds.

Wes Reynolds pointed to Keegan Bradley at 100-1 (Bet365) as a speculative but intriguing play. The newly minted U.S. Ryder Cup captain has kept his foot on the gas, winning the Travelers Championship and posting five other top-10s this year, including a strong PGA Championship showing. While Bradley has never truly contended in an Open, Reynolds argued that consistent contention and added Ryder Cup motivation could translate into a surprise run on a course that rewards iron play—one of Bradley’s strengths.

Wes Reynolds called Russell Henley a mis-priced contender at 65-1 (FanDuel). Henley ranks 5th on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Total, 6th Around-the-Green, and 15th in Approach. He’s riding elite recent form—5th at the Memorial, 10th at the U.S. Open, and 2nd at the Travelers—on top of a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational earlier this season. Henley also finished 5th at last year’s Open at Royal Troon, reinforcing his growing links pedigree. Reynolds believes the statistical profile and hot form justify an outright sprinkle.

Wes Reynolds suggested Matt Fitzpatrick at 55-1 (DraftKings) as a timely buy-low. After a forgettable 2024 campaign, Fitzpatrick has rediscovered form with consecutive top-10s, including a T-4 at the Genesis Scottish Open. Reynolds noted the 2022 U.S. Open champion appears rejuvenated since switching caddies from Billy Foster to Daniel Parratt. With his precise driving and underrated short game, Fitzpatrick could capitalize on Royal Portrush’s demand for accuracy and scrambling, making the price attractive.

Wes Reynolds advised jumping on Tyrrell Hatton at 33-1 (FanDuel). Hatton is fresh off a career-best T-4 at the U.S. Open, has already won the 2025 Dubai Desert Classic, and owns four additional worldwide top-5 finishes this season. Reynolds highlighted Hatton’s links pedigree: the Englishman is a three-time Alfred Dunhill Links champion on Open-rota courses St. Andrews and Carnoustie. With current form and course-type history both pointing up, Reynolds sees Hatton as overdue for a major breakthrough.

Wes Reynolds recommended Viktor Hovland at 30-1 (DraftKings). Hovland has finished no worse than 13th in three of his four Open starts and was T-5 at Wentworth—another Harry Colt design—each of the past two years, suggesting Royal Portrush should suit him. Reynolds emphasized Hovland’s rapidly improving short game: he ranked 2nd Around-the-Green at the U.S. Open and 9th in Scrambling at last week’s Scottish Open. With ball-striking still elite and the traditional weakness turning into a strength, Reynolds believes Hovland is live to contend.

Wes Reynolds said Jon Rahm is worth a bet at 16-1 (Bet365) because, while the Spaniard has yet to win in 2025, his major-championship form has quietly returned. Rahm logged top-10 finishes in both the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open, and he owns three top-7 finishes in his last four Open Championships. Reynolds added that Rahm’s LIV results—nine top-10s in 10 starts—confirm the baseline form is still there even if he has been "out of sight, out of mind" for many golf bettors. The consistent major résumé plus proven links success make Rahm a core outright play.

Reynolds could not resist a triple-digit stab on Laurie Canter at 175-1. Since rejoining the DP World Tour last summer, Canter has wins in Germany and Bahrain, ranks No. 1 in strokes-gained off-the-tee and 7th in approach among Tour regulars, and just finished 7th at the BMW International. Those metrics perfectly match Reynolds’ model weighting on distance plus irons at a calm Renaissance Club. With the Open berth carrot dangling—and very few elite drivers priced beyond 100-1—Reynolds believes Canter is the kind of volatility-friendly bomber who can spike a win when the putter cooperates.

Reynolds added Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen at 90-1, noting the rookie has already posted runner-up finishes in Qatar and Puerto Rico plus three additional top-10s this year. On the DP World Tour he sits 6th in strokes-gained off-the-tee and 11th on approach among full-time regulars, numbers that mirror last year’s Scottish Open leaderboards. Neergaard-Petersen was 4th at the Dunhill Links, proving comfort on fescue greens, and his elite driving sets up birdie looks on Renaissance’s three-shot holes. Reynolds sees him as a perfect long-odds bullet for outright and each-way tickets.

Reynolds fired on Rasmus Hojgaard at 80-1, citing a profile tailor-made for a calm, score-fest week. Hojgaard ranks eighth in driving distance on the PGA side, was runner-up (with twin brother Nicolai) at the Zurich Classic, and finished 10th at Renaissance in 2022. The trio of reachable par-5s plus generous fescue run-outs plays directly into his bomb-and-wedge skill-set. Reynolds acknowledged the Dane’s frustrating PGA Tour season but pointed out that motivation spikes here with three Open spots on the line. If his streaky putter shows up, Reynolds believes Hojgaard’s ceiling is equal to players half his price.

Wes Reynolds grabbed Adam Scott at 55-1 because the Aussie checks every box for the Genesis Scottish Open. Scott owns a win at the Dunhill Links, finished runner-up here the year Robert MacIntyre swiped the trophy with an eagle from a fortuitous free drop, and has quietly posted top-20s in three of his last four majors (T12 U.S. Open despite brutal Sunday weather, T10 at last year’s Open). Reynolds believes the Renaissance Club’s calm forecast removes Scott’s only weakness—sheer length—while his classic swing, elite long-iron play and years of links reps give him an edge in a mid-range that lacks proven major winners. With the 43-year-old still chasing “one more big one,” Reynolds called 55-1 a clear mis-price worth adding to outright cards.

Reynolds added Matt Fitzpatrick at 45-1 for the Scottish Open, pointing to a resurgence in both power and putting. Fitz has two top-10s in his last eight starts, gaining 0.9 strokes per round off-the-tee in Detroit (5th) and finishing 1st in putting at the U.S. Open. He was runner-up on debut here in 2021 and owns a Dunhill Links win, confirming his comfort on slow fescue greens. With Ryder Cup qualification still in doubt, Reynolds expects maximum motivation. The separation from longtime caddie Billy Foster looks positive so far, as Fitz has gained approach strokes in three straight events. Reynolds believes that combo of trending ball-striking, rekindled flat-stick, and links pedigree makes 45-1 "flat out wrong".

Reynolds grabbed Collin Morikawa at 25-1 for the Scottish Open, arguing that a fresh partnership with veteran looper Billy Foster (Sebi Ballesteros, Darren Clarke, Matt Fitzpatrick) is the perfect spark. Morikawa climbed to 8th in strokes-gained total his last start in Detroit and has already shown he can make a rapid links adjustment—he missed the cut at the 2021 Scottish Open, swapped out his blades, then won the Claret Jug seven days later. He missed the cut here on debut but rebounded to 4th last year, validating the learning curve. Foster’s encyclopedic knowledge of U.K. winds and green complexes plus Morikawa’s top-five irons (field-adjusted) convinced Reynolds the two-time major winner is undervalued in the mid-20s.

Wes Reynolds punched a 22-1 outright on Tommy Fleetwood because the Englishman checks every Scottish-Open box despite mediocre raw distance. Fleetwood has finished runner-up, 4th, and 6th the last three years at Renaissance and owns a second-place finish at Royal Portrush, next week’s Open venue. Reynolds noted Fleetwood’s proven comfort on firm fescue layouts and the psychological edge of playing outside the U.S., where most of his near-misses occur. With calm weather turning the event into a mini birdie-fest, Reynolds expects Fleetwood’s elite long-iron play and seasoned links shot-making to keep him in the hunt and finally cash a trophy across the pond.

Wes Reynolds recommended a flyer on Tom Hoge at 125/1 (BetMGM). Hoge missed the cut at Oakmont by one but still gained 4.5 strokes with his ball-striking—a number that would have placed top-five for the week. He finished third at last year’s Travelers and historically thrives on short, second-shot tracks like Pebble Beach, where he owns his lone TOUR win. Hoge leads the PGA TOUR in proximity from 100-125 yards over his last 24 rounds, the exact distance bucket most common at River Highlands. Reynolds suggests using him in outright markets and derivative placements given the upside at triple-digit odds.

Reynolds took Daniel Berger at 50/1 on FanDuel, leaning on his stellar history at River Highlands and overall Pete Dye form. Berger lost a playoff here to peak Jordan Spieth in 2017 and finished fifth the year prior. Although he has not teed it up at the Travelers since 2019, he reminded bettors of his Dye pedigree with a solo third at Harbour Town’s RBC Heritage in April. Berger ranks eighth in Strokes Gained Total on Pete Dye courses over the last 36 rounds and sits top-15 in Off-the-Tee this season, giving him an ideal profile for a course that rewards positional driving and wedge proximity.

Wes Reynolds fired on Cameron Young at 50/1 (Circa Sports). Young is fresh off a T-4 at Oakmont—his best major showing in three years—and has placed inside the top seven in three of his last five starts overall. Ranked seventh in Strokes Gained: Par 4s over his past 24 rounds, Young tackles a layout featuring twelve Par 4s and plenty of club-down driver holes he can still attack with his high-launch fairway wood. He finished ninth at last year’s Travelers, proving River Highlands does not neuter his power advantage. Reynolds believes the combination of trending form and prior course success makes this the spot where Young finally breaks through.

Reynolds invested in Russell Henley at 40/1 (DraftKings). Henley ground out a T-10 at the U.S. Open—his third top-10 finish in the past five majors—and already owns a 2025 win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He ranks third on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and top-15 in Bent/Poa putting, skills crucial at a venue that punishes sloppy short-game work. Reynolds added that Henley entered the final round in the top three here three different times, indicating comfort with River Highlands’ tricky closing stretch. With J.J. Spaun bumping him from an automatic Ryder Cup berth, Henley has added incentive to chase the W this week.

Wes Reynolds grabbed Keegan Bradley at 35/1 on DraftKings, citing a blend of course history, trending form and Ryder Cup motivation. The Vermont native won here in 2023 and lost a playoff in 2019, and he just finished 4th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green at Oakmont (T-33 overall). Before the U.S. Open he logged back-to-back top-10s: seventh at the Memorial and eighth at the PGA Championship. Reynolds notes that Bradley’s driving accuracy and reliable mid-iron game fit the club-down requirements of River Highlands, and the captain’s need to bank a win for Ryder Cup qualification should sharpen his edge.

Wes Reynolds backed Collin Morikawa at 18/1 on FanDuel, pointing to a ridiculous tee-to-green profile that screams win equity at TPC River Highlands. Morikawa led last week’s U.S. Open field in Strokes Gained: Approach, Tee-to-Green and overall Ball Striking while ranking second in Greens in Regulation, yet he finished only T-23 because he hemorrhaged nearly nine strokes with the putter—his worst putting week in almost five years. Reynolds expects immediate positive regression on the greens after Morikawa had gained strokes putting in three consecutive starts prior to Oakmont. With River Highlands rewarding precise irons more than length and presenting Poa-bent surfaces Morikawa has handled in the past, Reynolds thinks the two-time major champ converts elite ball-striking into a Sunday trophy.

Reynolds grabbed Tom Hoge at a juicy 125/1 on BetMGM, viewing him as a high-ceiling placement prop. Hoge missed the cut at Oakmont but still gained 4.5 strokes with his ball-striking, a number that would have ranked top-5 had he played the weekend. He finished 3rd at last year’s Travelers and owns the TOUR’s #1 proximity numbers from 100-125 yards over the last 24 rounds, a key range at TPC River Highlands. The short par-70 mimics Pebble Beach, the site of his lone TOUR win, making Hoge a value target for top-5/10 tickets and outright sprinkles.

At 50/1 on FanDuel, Daniel Berger made Reynolds’ card thanks to historical and course-type fits. Though absent from the Travelers since 2019, Berger owns a playoff loss to Jordan Spieth here in 2017 and a 5th-place finish in 2016. He recently finished 3rd at Harbour Town—another Pete Dye track—showing his game still meshes with Dye’s sightlines. Berger ranks 8th in SG: Off-the-Tee this season and 5th in total strokes gained on Dye layouts over the last 36 rounds, giving Reynolds confidence the Florida State product can contend immediately.

Reynolds bet Cameron Young 50/1 at Circa, citing a clear upward trajectory. Young’s T-4 at Oakmont was his best major finish in three years and marked his third top-7 in the last five starts. He ranked top-10 in SG: Par-4s over the last 24 rounds and posted a 9th-place finish at TPC River Highlands last year. Reynolds believes the short par-70 that forces lay-ups neutralizes Young’s occasional driver volatility while letting his elite long-iron game shine, creating a realistic path to his first PGA TOUR victory.

Russell Henley was penciled in at 40/1 on DraftKings after a T-10 at the U.S. Open, his third top-10 in the last five majors. Reynolds highlighted Henley’s victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March and his consistent iron play (Top-15 SG: Approach this season). Henley has twice been inside the top-3 entering Sunday at the Travelers and, now sitting just outside automatic Ryder Cup qualification after Spaun’s Oakmont win, has extra motivation on a layout that rewards his fairway-first style.

Reynolds grabbed Keegan Bradley 35/1 at DraftKings, leaning on elite course history and short-game form. Bradley won here in 2023 and was runner-up in 2019. Even in a middling T-33 at Oakmont he ranked 4th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, reinforcing his touch on TPC River Highlands’ tricky complexes. With two recent top-10 finishes (7th at the Memorial, 8th at the PGA) and an urgent need for a win to bolster his Ryder Cup captain’s resume, Reynolds thinks Bradley is live to repeat in Connecticut.

Wes Reynolds bet Collin Morikawa 18/1 on FanDuel, arguing the U.S. Open stat profile screams buy-low. Morikawa actually led the field at Oakmont in Strokes Gained: Approach, Tee-to-Green and Ball Striking while ranking second in Greens in Regulation, yet he stumbled to a T-23 because he hemorrhaged almost nine strokes with the putter—his worst putting week in nearly five years. Reynolds noted Morikawa had gained strokes putting in three straight starts prior to Oakmont, so positive regression on the greens paired with his intact iron play makes him a prime contender at the shortest course on TOUR.

Reynolds grabbed Viktor Hovland at 35-1 (28-1 without Scheffler) and reminded listeners he cashed Hovland’s Memorial win two years ago. Hovland was 8th in strokes-gained approach and 5th in total driving at the PGA Championship, and Wes believes the thicker rough around Muirfield’s greens masks Hovland’s usual chipping weaknesses. Bent-grass complexes and penal fairway rough let Viktor lean on his elite ball-striking while eliminating the tight-lie chips that give him nightmares. The putter has quietly improved in recent starts, and Reynolds thinks anything near field average putting puts him firmly in Sunday contention again.

Wes Reynolds bet Xander Schauffele outright at 18-1 (14-1 in the Scheffler-out market) because the numbers finally show the rib injury is behind him. Schauffele ranked 3rd in strokes-gained off-the-tee at the PGA Championship and sits 9th on TOUR in strokes-gained approach for the season, giving Reynolds confidence the elite tee-to-green form is back. Wes also pointed out that Schauffele actually led the entire Memorial field in putting last year, so the bent-grass greens at Muirfield Village clearly suit his eye. With the course demanding accuracy and distance off the tee plus immaculate second-shot play, Reynolds sees a complete profile and thinks Xander’s win equity is higher than the price suggests now that the short game is tightening up.