Hill bet RJ Harvey Over 34.5 rushing yards. While Sean Payton traditionally rotates backs, Harvey was drafted early to be the lead option. Denver is a sizeable favorite, and Hill expects a run-heavy second half that lets the rookie cruise past the low threshold.

Hill snagged Saints +6.5, arguing the line treats Arizona like a proven juggernaut when the young Cardinals have yet to earn that status. Even if New Orleans struggles this season, Hill cannot justify laying nearly a touchdown with a road team still finding its identity.

Hill played Ashton Jeanty Over 16.5 rushing attempts. The sixth overall pick now works for new Raiders coach Pete Carroll, a noted run-first disciple. Hill believes Carroll will lean heavily on his prized back right out of the gate, especially in a matchup where Las Vegas projects to control neutral-situation snaps. That volume should clear the modest attempts prop.

Hill took Browns +5.5, citing Cincinnati’s chronic slow starts. The Bengals have dropped four of their last five openers and were blown out 24-3 in Cleveland two years ago. Historical data shows home divisional dogs in Week 1 hit at a healthy clip, and Hill is happy to fade a rusty Joe Burrow while banking on the Dawg Pound energy to keep this within the number.

Hill grabbed Giants +6.5, pointing out that Washington swept the series in 2024 but did so by only eight combined points. He called the Commanders’ 12-win campaign smoke-and-mirrors, boosted by good fortune in one-score games and a soft slate of opposing quarterbacks. Hill expects a tighter affair and believes the generous spread overstates the gap between NFC East rivals.

Will Hill backed George Pickens to clear 55.5 receiving yards in the opener at Philadelphia. Hill noted Pickens finally escapes the erratic quarterback play he endured in Pittsburgh and lands in a more pass-centric attack with Dak Prescott. Because CeeDee Lamb commands extra coverage, Hill expects Pickens to see softer matchups on the perimeter. With Dallas listed as an 8.5-point underdog, Hill anticipates a catch-up game script that forces Prescott north of 35 attempts, giving Pickens enough volume to sail past the posted total.