William Boor warned listeners that Atlanta no longer deserves World Series-favorite pricing and should be treated as an average club until proven otherwise. The Braves opened 0-6 on their California road swing and—even discounting those games—are just 2-5 on the road against sub-.500 opponents. Boor pointed to a bullpen that owns a 4.57 ERA (20th) and is missing its usual high-leverage depth, plus an offense still waiting on Ronald Acuna Jr. and ranking 25th in isolated power. With Atlanta already 7.5 games behind in the NL East and approaching a brutal May schedule that includes the Orioles, Astros and a Coors Field trip, Boor recommended fading the Braves in nightly money-line markets and reconsidering any preseason division or pennant tickets before Memorial Day line movement hits.

Boor labeled New York an early value in the NL East futures market, noting the club’s 7-game win streak and surprising pitching depth. The Mets rotation owns a league-best 2.87 ERA despite missing its top two arms; Griffin Canning and depth starter Clay Holmes have combined for a 2.12 FIP over 28 innings. Offensively, the team is merely league-average in OPS but should spike once warmer weather aids Citi Field’s carry; Boor cited Jeff McNeil’s .245 BABIP (career .330) and Francisco Lindor’s 7% HR/FB rate (career 13%) as prime positive-regression candidates. Most importantly, Boor emphasized ownership’s willingness to buy aggressively at the deadline—projected additions that current futures prices (as high as +450 to win the division) are not fully baking in. He advised locking in Mets tickets before that number shortens and continuing to back them in plus-money matchups while their pitching edge remains mispriced.

William Boor said he is firing on the Phillies behind Jesus Luzardo despite Chicago’s torrid start at the plate. Boor pulled up Luzardo’s Baseball Savant page, noting an ERA of 2.08 with an expected ERA of 2.63, a strike-out rate north of 30 percent and elite chase metrics that paint the screen red. He acknowledged Chicago has been hanging crooked numbers "like 40 runs every night" but expects that to cool with Saturday’s wind projected to blow straight in at Wrigley, historically worth roughly a run and a half to the total. Boor thinks the suppressed run environment neutralizes the Cubs’ power and plays perfectly into Luzardo’s swing-and-miss profile, giving Philadelphia a clear edge at the current plus-money prices being dealt in the market.

Looking at the Orioles-Tigers double-header, Boor singled out Game 2 — likely Charlie Morton for Baltimore against a still-TBD Detroit starter — as an immediate over spot. Morton’s velo is down almost two mph from last season, his curveball whiff rate has dipped to 23 % (career 35 %), and he is allowing 1.8 HR/9. Detroit’s mystery arm figures to be a low-leverage call-up, meaning both clubs could be deep into the bullpen by the fifth inning of a second game. Boor wants any total at 9 or lower and will still consider 9.5 if Comerica’s wind is blowing out. He added that the Orioles’ lineup is too deep to stay quiet forever, while Casey Mize and company will force Detroit to hit to keep pace, creating a classic double-header shootout scenario.

Boor was already on Cleveland before Friday’s rainout and will roll that ticket into Saturday’s Game 1 of the double-header. He prefers Ben Lively over Tanner Houck, noting Lively’s 2.11 FIP through three starts and a ground-ball rate north of 50 % that plays well in Progressive Field. Houck, meanwhile, has struggled with command (10.6 % walk rate) and owns a .292 expected batting average against. Cleveland’s bullpen is rested thanks to the postponement, and Boor pointed out that the Guardians are historically stronger at home, where they were 52-29 last season. Until Houck shows he can locate the slider again, Boor is happy to lay a short price on the Guardians or play them in the first five innings.

William Boor called the Angels a live money-line dog Saturday in Minnesota. His stance is more a fade of the Twins than a love letter to Anaheim: Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner are back on the IL, Byron Buxton is one bad step from joining them, and the offense has under-performed preseason projections across the board. Boor also flagged the Twins’ brutal travel week — a red-eye flight after a West Coast night game — as a hidden fatigue spot. As long as LA does not look completely dead in Friday’s opener, he plans to grab plus-money behind Yusei Kikuchi and a lineup that has shown surprising pop from youngsters like Kyren Paris. In short: healthy bats, fresher legs, and a disappointing host make the Angels the value side.