Kenny G is fading Aaron Nola and backing the Giants at +120 on the road against Philadelphia. Nola (0-3, 5.51 ERA) has had notable issues thus far, including subpar performances against both strong (Dodgers) and weak (Nationals) lineups. Kenny contrasts Nola's struggles against Robbie Ray's excellent form (3-0, 2.93 ERA) for the Giants. He trusts San Francisco's hotter offense (4th in runs scored, 9th in slugging) and superior pitching staff to outperform a Phillies team dealing with an erratic Nola and a problematic bullpen (4.50 bullpen ERA).

Michael Savio expects a strong outing from Aaron Nola despite a tough early-season stretch. While Nola has struggled initially, his performance has steadily improved with each start. He now faces a Giants team whose offense has significantly cooled, driven by slumps from their key hitters, Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames, and Matt Chapman—a trio that produced just one hit in their last combined 29 at-bats. Savio sees this as an opportune moment for Nola to continue improving against San Francisco's struggling batters.

Guy Boston is strongly favoring the Phillies money line, priced around -125, against the Cardinals. He cites significant matchup advantages for Aaron Nola, who has dominated this current Cardinals lineup (89 plate appearances, .207 batting average, .291 expected slugging, .253 wOBA allowed). On the other hand, Andre Pallante, the Cardinals starter, shows concerning splits against Phillies hitters (40 plate appearances, .417 average, 7.5% strikeout rate, .545 expected slugging). Despite Philadelphia having slight travel concerns coming off a late delayed game against Atlanta, Guy Boston confidently backs what he sees as the better pitcher and superior offense in the Phillies. He's also open to betting Phillies team total over, noting Philadelphia's hitters perform well against right-handed pitching.

Guy Boston expects Aaron Nola to allow over 1.5 earned runs against St. Louis. Nola has conceded 3 and 5 runs in his two starts this year and allowed two earned runs each time he faced the Cardinals last season. The Cardinals offense ranks top-3 this season, scoring over 6 runs per game on average. Nola also struggles historically on the road, allowing over 1.5 earned runs in 12 of his last 15 outings away from home (3.2 runs/game average). Guy Boston considers the strong Cardinals lineup against right-handers—being among MLB's best—to be a particularly challenging matchup for Nola's struggles on the mound to continue.

Dylan Rockford sees clear value betting the Cardinals at plus odds (+125), finding Aaron Nola unjustifiably priced as a big favorite given his shaky 6.35 ERA thus far. While Andre Pallante has performed much better, especially at home, Rockford particularly emphasizes the Cardinals hitting prowess at Busch Stadium (.298 team average at home, .286 against right-handers), believing they'll handle Nola comfortably. Despite concerns about St. Louis' bullpen, Dylan suggests hedging by playing Cardinals first five innings, making sure to exploit the juicy home dog price in this matchup.

Eric Lindquist highlighted Aaron Nola as a likely target for home run props against the Cardinals based on early-season concerns. Lindquist noted Nola is showing worrying regression trends, including a 16.7% barrel rate, 3.04 expected batting average allowed, and just a 20.8% strikeout rate. These metrics suggest Nola will be much more susceptible to hard-hitting left-handed bats like Lars Nootbaar, who is currently sporting excellent contact metrics and a favorable launch angle. Lindquist sees potential for shortened home run odds on hitters when facing Nola moving forward due to these developing vulnerabilities.

Bettor Mark chose Phillies +1 at -148 on DraftKings against the Dodgers, emphasizing that Philadelphia's strong 6-1 start has gone underappreciated next to LA's 8-1 record. He expects Aaron Nola, despite his poor season debut (8.44 ERA), to rebound closer to career norms. Mark feels the Phillies will compete intensely, motivated more than the Dodgers, with the +1 run granting bet security in a tight contest and possibly high-scoring game compared to their previous 3-2 victory.

Cash Out Sports Picks suggests betting on the Phillies money line against the Dodgers, highlighting Philadelphia's strong pitching advantage with veteran Aaron Nola against Dodgers rookie Roki Sasaki. Sasaki has struggled early in the season, never making it beyond three innings and lasting only 1.2 innings in his debut. Nola comes into this matchup with a deep track record of reliability, though he opened the season with a rocky start against Washington. The Phillies have a fully healthy lineup of offensive threats playing at home, whereas Los Angeles is without key hitter Freddie Freeman, sidelined with an ankle injury. Given Nola's pedigree, Sasaki's struggles, and Philadelphia's home advantage, the Phillies provide excellent value against the powerful Dodgers.

Greg Peterson recommends betting against Aaron Nola and the Phillies, siding instead with the Dodgers (+102). Nola has consistently underperformed expectations since 2021, posting a 3.98 ERA with poor home-run control (1.3 HR/9) and allowing five runs in his recent debut. Dodgers starter Roki Sasaki also faces command concerns (nine walks in just 4.2 innings), but he benefits from one of baseball's strongest lineups, averaging over 5.6 runs per game so far. Additionally, LA's bullpen boasts a sparkling 1.83 ERA, providing further backing for a Dodgers victory.