Lindquist circled Addison Barger for a two-plus total bases ticket once markets open. The rookie has completely retooled his swing—posting a 51.7% hard-hit rate, .286 xBA and .518 xSLG, with his barrel rate jumping from 8.7% to 13.2% year-over-year—while settling into the No. 2 spot versus lefties and likely the No. 3 spot against right-hander Ryne Nelson. Nelson carries a 279 xBA, 91 mph average EV allowed, and a 4.14 ERA that sits three runs lower than his xERA, signaling looming regression. Arizona’s bullpen owns a 4.80 xFIP over the past month, giving Barger extra cracks at shaky relief arms. Lindquist expects plus money on the prop and plans to make it a card staple once the number is posted.

Bill Harrelson went back to the well with Addison Barger OVER 0.5 total bases. Despite burning bettors two nights ago, Barger has cleared this low bar in seven of his last ten and 14 of his last twenty games. Across his last sixteen contests he is averaging a robust 2.5 total bases per game. Season-long, he has reached at least one total base in 27 of 49 appearances (55%) while seeing his plate appearances tick up to roughly four per game in recent weeks. Books are leaning over; DraftKings and ESPN Bet list the over at –125 with consensus agreement across the rest of the market. Harrelson called the single-base threshold “insanity” given Barger's recent power surge and extra plate appearances, making him a high-percentage play to record a hit against the Diamondbacks.

Harrelson played Addison Barger over 0.5 total bases. Barger has turned a slow start into a hot streak, eclipsing the mark in 12 of his last 14 and 8 of his past 10 overall. He has done so in 4 of 5 meetings with Philadelphia and owns a .333 average in three career plate appearances off left-hander Christopher Sanchez. DraftKings is shaded to the over at ‑125, and Barger’s splits are better versus southpaws (.273) than his season average (.265). With a 55 % season hit rate (26 of 47 games) and upward momentum since May 7, Harrelson expects at least one knock from the Toronto rookie.

Invoking his proprietary fade system, Bettor Mark is betting Addison Barger UNDER 0.5 total bases at +140 on Bet365. The rookie has cleared this number in only 30 percent of his last 10 games, and Mark believes the books have mis-priced his matchup in a game likely to feature runs elsewhere. He’s staking one unit on Barger failing to record a hit or walk that counts toward total bases.