Calling it his best bet, Martin grabbed the White Sox at +127. He highlighted Taijuan Walker’s 5.00 FIP, three homers allowed in his last start, and the fact he has yet to pitch beyond the fifth inning all season—putting extra strain on a Phillies bullpen that travels poorly. Conversely, Adrian Houser has won four consecutive decisions and owns a 2.10 ERA in five starts on the South Side, posting a perfect 5-0 home record. Since the All-Star break Chicago’s overall play has improved, and Martin thinks the starting-pitching gulf plus home-field value make the Sox a live underdog.

Drew Martin recommended taking the White Sox at +165 in the Crosstown Series opener thanks to Adrian Houser’s breakout and several situational edges. Houser is 5-2 with a 1.89 ERA, allowing one earned run or fewer in three of his last four appearances—all while touching 96 mph more frequently as the season progresses. Chicago’s South Side offense is the second-hottest in MLB by wRC+ over the past week and profiles better versus lefties like Cubs starter Shota Imanaga (7-3, 2.50 ERA but just 2-2 in his last four decisions). Martin also highlighted a potential look-ahead for the Cubs, who trail Milwaukee by one game and face the Brewers next. With the White Sox bullpen showing recent improvement, he believes the fat plus money is worth the swing.

B Wade backed Adrian Houser to eclipse 3.5 strikeouts. Houser owns a 1.56 ERA over 57 innings and has cleared this number in 6 of 9 starts. He rarely strings poor K games together; each sub-4 performance has been followed by a bounce-back over. His last miss came versus Toronto, the club with the fewest strikeouts per game in MLB. Now he faces Pittsburgh, who owns the fifth-highest K-rate. Wade added that Houser fanned five Pirates in his lone meeting last season—his single-game high for 2024—underscoring the matchup edge. He called the 3.5 line “a gift.”

Kenny G recommended backing the White Sox at –120 in Colorado because Adrian Houser has quietly been a "monster": 1.90 ERA and five straight strong outings, including seven shutout innings against San Francisco. He contrasted Houser with Antonio Senzatela’s 6.69 ERA and a Rockies bullpen that owns the fifth-worst ERA in MLB (4.61). While Chicago’s lineup is dead last in most categories, Kenny noted Colorado’s offense is only marginally better and benefits from the Coors Field bump half the time. With both clubs sitting at historically bad records (White Sox 9-34 on the road, Rockies 8-34 at home), Kenny trusts the clearly superior starter and less awful bullpen, calling Chicago the only side worth playing despite their overall ineptitude.

Just A Bet Outside is eyeing Michael Soroka over 17.5 outs or over 5.5 strikeouts—both currently at plus money—for Friday’s matinee in Boston. Soroka sits in the 75th percentile for strikeout and walk rates, enabling inning-eating efficiency, and the Nationals have historically allowed starters to work deep when effective. Since the Rafael Devers trade, seven of the 12 right-handers Boston has faced cleared the 17.5-out mark. The Red Sox also own the 7th-highest K-rate versus righties over the past three weeks (23.7%), aligning with Soroka’s recent strikeout logs of 7-5-9-10-5. The host has not finalized the pick but leans to both overs, especially the outs prop given the plus-price and a taxed Washington bullpen that needs length.

Drew Martin is willing to grab a plus-money ticket on the White Sox because he believes Adrian Houser gives Chicago the better arm. Houser boasts a 2.10 ERA and has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start. Eric Fedde, meanwhile, has dropped three straight decisions with an 8-walk, 12-strikeout ratio over that span. Martin also called out the Cardinals’ bullpen for recent struggles, giving the White Sox a rare late-inning advantage. With the market likely to price St. Louis as a road favorite based on brand name alone, Martin sees Chicago as a live dog on Thursday’s slate.