Kyle Purviance highlighted taking AJ Smith-Shawver's strikeout total under, pointing to the Rays' batters' notable consistency at putting the ball in play and avoiding strikeouts altogether. He advises that, due to these matchup dynamics, Smith-Shawver should struggle to generate strikeouts at his usual rate.

Dan Palyo highly recommends betting AJ Smith-Shawver over 4.5 strikeouts (-138 FanDuel). Miami's lineup just allowed Spencer Schwellenbach 10 strikeouts in the previous game, underscoring their significant issues with strikeouts. Smith-Shawver's first appearance showed encouraging indicators—a 16.9% SwStr%, impressive 32.5% CSW%, and although some walk concerns (14% BB%), Miami's paltry 7% walk rate eases that concern. Palyo identifies this prop as one of today's best bets, perceiving excellent potential for a strong performance against Miami's strikeout-heavy lineup.

Greg Peterson spots value betting the Braves moneyline (+114) versus the Padres. AJ Smith-Shawver, despite limited MLB exposure (only seven appearances), dazzled with 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings in Spring Training and remains a promising 22-year-old talent. Opposing pitcher Nick Pivetta has always struggled with hard contact, consistently allowing at least 1.3 home runs per nine innings throughout his eight-season MLB career. The Braves near-elite bullpen (second in ERA and Fielding Independent last year) further supports Smith-Shawver, contributing to Peterson’s confidence that the Braves are undervalued (handicapped Braves line at -107).