Eric Lindquist said Alec Burleson over 1.5 total bases is his favorite prop in the Cardinals-Padres matchup. Lindquist pointed to Nick Pavetta’s 11.4 % barrel rate and long-running tendency to cough up loud contact once the weather turns hot. Pavetta’s four-seam/curveball mix has allowed a .500-plus expected slugging to left-handers since June, and Friday’s muggy St. Louis forecast should help the ball carry. Burleson owns a .481 expected slugging percentage and a 17.6-degree average launch angle—highest among Cardinal lefties—so Lindquist expects at least a double or a pair of singles to clear the 1.5-base line.

Eric Lindquist advised betting Alec Burleson over 1.5 total bases Friday against Nick Pivetta. St. Louis finally has mid-summer weather – high 90s, humid, with a light breeze out – which historically turns Busch into a sneaky hitter’s park. Pivetta’s early-season whiff surge has evaporated; his barrel rate is up to 11.4% and his average exit velo allowed sits at 91 mph. Lefties in particular have mauled him for a .520 xSLG. Burleson leads all Cardinal lefties with a 17.6° average launch angle and a .481 expected slug, giving him the ideal batted-ball profile to punish Pivetta’s four-seam/curve mix. Lindquist trusts Burleson “more than anyone at these prices” and expects at least a double or multiple singles, making the 1.5 total-base prop plus-EV at anything better than +110.

Lindquist called Alec Burleson a "sneaky, sneaky saucy" prop target Monday against Cubs rookie Ben Brown. Burleson owns just a 13.5% strikeout rate with a 16-degree launch angle and .444 xSLG, an ideal profile against the swing-and-miss stuff Brown leans on (29% K rate). With heat and humidity soaring in St. Louis, ball-flight conditions will mimic last weekend’s Wrigley "nuclear" series that produced multiple double-digit totals. Lindquist is waiting for markets to post but plans to hit Burleson 1.5 total bases or even HR (+600 or longer), emphasizing that his contact skill should negate Brown’s biggest weapon.