Bill Harrelson recommended taking Alejandro Kirk for less than 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs on Underdog, noting that no other book is even hanging such an aggressive number. Kirk has stayed under this threshold in eight of his last ten and 15 of his last twenty games (75%), a run that includes five straight unders. He is under in 65 of 89 games this season (73%) and 140 of roughly 190 games dating back to 2024 (74%). Harrelson pointed out that the catcher averages just 3.8 plate appearances, so he likely needs two hits plus a run or RBI to beat the line—something he has failed to do in five of his last six road starts. Even though he has previously cashed the under in both meetings with Colorado, the market is still pricing him as if three combined stats are likely. Harrelson called the probability far below the implied odds and expects Kirk to stay under.

Bamford threw a dart at Alejandro Kirk at 100-to-1, calling the Blue Jays backstop a "little fat catcher who can hit one over the fence." Kirk’s contact skills and sneaky pop make him the kind of reserve who could enter late, park a homer, and steal voter headlines—exactly how several longshot MVPs have cashed this past decade.

BetMGM Betting suggested continuing to play Alejandro Kirk under 0.5 runs (priced around –125 to –135). The catcher has failed to score in 14 of his last 15 contests, banking +11.95 units (36% ROI). Sunday’s matchup is even tougher: Max Fried induces a league-high 59% ground-ball rate overall, and Yankee pitchers own the best ground-ball batting average with runners on (.174). Toronto’s lineup has also chased 38% of pitches out of the zone with RISP (highest in MLB) and slugged just .349 versus lefties last season. All signs point to limited table-setting opportunities for Kirk, making the run-scored under a strong bet.

Just A Bet Outside detailed how Alejandro Kirk, combined with teammate George Springer, is having severe historical struggles against Tanner Houck, with the duo collectively 0-for-23 with seven strikeouts. Kirk personally contributes significantly to this poor record, suggesting bettors and DFS players strongly consider fading him against Houck.