B Wade recommended betting Andrew Abbott to allow fewer than 2.5 earned runs at a surprising –120 price. Abbott owns a 2.09 ERA and has topped this number only three times all season; at Great American Ball Park he has surrendered more than one run just once. He blanked Atlanta earlier this year in a 2-1 Reds win. Wade added that the Braves lineup is ‘sputtering’ with Ronald Acuna sidelined and the front office standing pat at the deadline, suggesting diminished offensive ceiling. Given Abbott’s consistency (sub-1.00 home ERA in July) and Atlanta’s current funk, Wade expects one run or fewer over six innings.

Martin advised laying the –155 with Cincinnati because All-Star southpaw Andrew Abbott “hasn’t lost since early June” and sports a sparkling 2.00 ERA. Atlanta counters with newly acquired Carlos Carrasco, elevated from Triple-A after four minor-league wins, a spot Drew labeled a “tricky handicap” given the jump in competition. The Braves are 19-35 on the road, while the Reds are 31-24 at Great American Ball Park. Abbott already stifled Atlanta once (8 K, 0 BB, 4 H), mixing speeds to keep them off balance. A sunny 80-degree evening with an 8 mph breeze out to center could send the combined score past 9.5, but Martin’s core play is Reds moneyline, citing both the starting-pitching edge and Cincinnati’s superior home splits.

For his dog, Rockford took Cincinnati at +130, noting that left-hander Andrew Abbott has been “a beast at home” while Atlanta’s lineup has shown little life. He added that Atlanta is acting like a seller and “waving the white flag,” so he doubts where the Braves’ offense will come from. The combination of home dominance from Abbott and a shaky Braves attack made the Reds his favorite underdog.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking Andrew Abbott under 2.5 earned runs allowed when the left-hander faces Atlanta. Abbott has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last ten starts and 16 of his last 20 (80 %). Earlier this season he blanked the Braves entirely, giving up zero earned runs over six frames. For 2025 he has cleared this prop in 15 of 18 outings (83 %), and combining this year with last season yields 32 hits in 43 starts—roughly a 75 % success rate. Other books such as Fliff and Sleeper have juiced the under, reflecting market support. Abbott averages 5.2 innings per start but has been even better in Great American Ball Park, finishing under in nine of his last ten home appearances while surrendering just 1.2 earned runs per game there. Harrelson views the plus matchup, track record, and market alignment as enough to fade Atlanta’s bats at the current 2.5 line.

Chris Welsh called Andrew Abbott a must-start in all matchups after another strong outing versus Miami. Abbott owns a 2.00 ERA and an 8-1 record, driven by a hammer curve that opponents are hitting under .150 and a 32% CSW rate. Welsh pointed out the rookie has also trimmed his walk rate to 6% over his last five turns and now has seven quality starts in his past eight appearances. Asked whether to sit him against the Marlins, Welsh said you "start him against everybody right now," staking Abbott as a top-30 fantasy SP moving forward.

Dylan Rockford fired on the Reds moneyline at –120, projecting Cincinnati as a –180 favorite with Andrew Abbott on the hill. Abbott owns a 2.73 ERA and 27% K-rate at Great American Ball Park, while Miami ranks bottom-5 in wRC+ versus lefties. Sandy Alcantara’s road ERA has ballooned to 9.95 after surrendering 12 runs on 15 hits in his last two starts, and his four-seam is being torched for a .618 SLG away from LoanDepot Park. Rockford noted that Cincinnati’s three-game skid came against top-10 offenses and views this as a "get-right" spot, especially with the Fish posting a .283 OBP on the road. He recommends laying up to –140 before the market corrects.

B Wade took Andrew Abbott under 5.5 hits allowed. Abbott has eclipsed that mark only four times in 14 starts, and every over came at Great American Ball Park. On the road he’s 6-for-6 to the under, surrendering just 3.0 hits per outing. Versus the Phillies specifically he’s given up a combined five hits across two career starts, both last season when Philadelphia’s lineup looked almost identical. Wade added that the Phillies’ offense has been "hit or miss" lately, reinforcing his expectation that Abbott keeps them to five or fewer knocks Friday.

Reichel leaned to the under 9.5/10 despite the hitter-friendly park. Andrew Abbott is 7-1 with a 1.79 ERA and has allowed only two earned runs in his last three starts. Padres starter Adrian Vasquez has a 3.60 ERA and just six earned runs over his last four starts. With neutral wind conditions, Reichel believes both lineups are too inconsistent to justify a double-digit total and sees a tight, lower-scoring game as the value side.

Kenny G said the best angle on Padres-Reds is the under 9.5, even in Great American Ball Park. He raved about Andrew Abbott’s year—1.98 ERA over his last four outings and fresh off seven innings of one-run ball versus St. Louis—and noted that Padres rookie Randy Vasquez has quietly logged a 3.56 xERA while holding opponents to a .289 wOBA outside of Petco. Both clubs trend to the under in these splits (San Diego 22-18-1 under on the road, Cincinnati 23-15-2 under at home). The Reds’ bullpen ERA sits at 3.98 but has flashed top-10 form for long stretches, and the Padres’ offense has cooled to 3.5 runs per game over its last six. With both starters in form and two pens that can protect a lead, Kenny expects offense to be at a premium and locked in the under. He also sprinkled Reds –155, citing Cincinnati’s top-10 rankings in runs and slugging and the leap Elly De La Cruz has taken in June.

Mark took Padres team total Under 4.5 (-130) against rookie ace Andrew Abbott. Abbott is 7-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 29% K-rate, and opponents have not exceeded four runs in eight of his nine starts. San Diego has failed to eclipse 4.5 runs in three straight and ranks 24th in wRC+ versus lefties this month. While Great American Ball Park inflates home-run potential, Abbott’s 53% ground-ball rate helps mitigate the park factor.

Bettor Mark said Cincinnati is the only side he wants in Sunday’s Abbott-Mikolas matchup, laying the modest –110. He called Andrew Abbott one of his "darling" prop targets all season and trusts the rookie’s 27% strike-out rate and 1.10 WHIP to neutralize a Cardinals lineup that owns just a .295 wOBA against lefties. Mark sees Miles Mikolas’ 4.73 xERA and plummeting ground-ball rate (down nine points from last year) giving Reds bats the spark they need to "come alive" after two quiet nights. With Great American Ball Park’s homer-friendly backdrop and Cincinnati’s superior bullpen FIP (3.61 vs STL’s 4.19) he expects the Reds to take the late-inning coin-flip spots and cash the money line.

Romanelli took Cincinnati outright, noting that the Reds have cashed four of Andrew Abbott’s last five starts and he’s become one of the most profitable southpaws in baseball. Although St. Louis owns decent recent splits versus lefties, Abbott limited damage his last time out despite allowing eight hits—only one of the five runs charged was earned. Meanwhile, Ron remains skeptical of Miles Mikolas, labeling him one of his least-trusted Cardinal starters. Cincinnati’s bats are crushing right-handed pitching, a matchup he expects to decide the game.

Kenny G recommended laying the modest –110 price with the Cincinnati Reds behind left-hander Andrew Abbott. Abbott is 6-1 with a 1.84 ERA and already blanked St. Louis for four innings in a weather-shortened May 1 meeting. Kenny dismissed Abbott’s most recent line (5 R, only 1 ER) as a fluke and expects a bounce-back. He called Miles Mikolas "due for an implosion," pointing to the veteran’s 4.35 ERA and swing-start volatility despite a decent six-inning outing against Milwaukee last time out. Cincinnati’s offense, still 10th in runs and 12th in slugging, features breakout star Elly De La Cruz and should thrive in Sunday’s heat. While the Reds bullpen has wobbled, Kenny trusts it more than recent surface stats and noted St. Louis’ relief unit has only just steadied at 3.97 ERA. Both teams trend under in these venues (Reds 20-18-1 under on the road; Cards 20-15-2 under at home), but he projects Cincinnati’s bats to wake up and provide Abbott with enough cushion. Kenny expects line movement toward the Reds before first pitch and is comfortable making them a primary play.

Drew Martin wants to back the Reds even if he has to lay a moderate road price because Andrew Abbott has fixed his early-season walk issues and is dealing. The 26-year-old southpaw carries a 6-1 record and sparkling 1.80 ERA into St. Louis. On the other side, 36-year-old Miles Mikolas is leaking oil – two straight losses and 32 hits allowed over his last 20 innings – making him an inviting fade. Martin expects Cincinnati’s lineup to pounce and Abbott to keep rolling, making the Big Red Machine his preferred side in this NL Central clash.

Calling it his favorite wager on Tuesday’s board, The Bettor Mark pounded Andrew Abbott under 2.5 earned runs at –135. Abbott is fresh off a complete-game gem against Cleveland and has held opponents to one or zero earned in four of his five May starts. The 26-year-old southpaw enters with a 2.71 season ERA, while the visiting Twins have failed to score more than three runs in any of their last four contests. With Minnesota’s bats reeling and Abbott working efficiently deep into games, Mark does not see a realistic path for the Twins to push across three earned, making the prop a core straight bet or parlay anchor.

Razzle positioned Andrew Abbott as a core GPP arm. Abbott is coming off a 108-pitch complete-game shutout and gets two extra days’ rest, alleviating workload concerns after back-to-back 100-plus pitch outings. He has logged 34+ DraftKings points in two of his last three starts and carries a 28% strike-out rate at home. The 5.5 K-prop sits near the slate’s top tier, while Minnesota’s projected lineup strikes out 25.5% versus southpaws. Although Great American Ball Park inflates power, the Twins rank just 18th in isolated power against lefties (.145). Abbott is a –123 favorite with an 8.5 total, giving him win equity and path to 25 DK points at only mid-range salary.

Steven highlighted Andrew Abbott as the second-best strikeout target on Tuesday. The Twins have been brutal against southpaws lately, striking out at a 27.9% clip (4th-highest over the past three weeks). Abbott owns 64 Ks through 62.2 innings and has reached 5-plus strikeouts in five of his last six outings. While Great American Ball Park suppresses his K-rate (21.5% at home vs 31.3% on the road), the matchup’s whiff upside plus Abbott’s slight bump against left-handed bats (27.4% K-rate) led Steven to suggest playing the over on his strikeout prop, especially for bettors comfortable with some park-based volatility.

Just A Bet Outside bet the Reds’ first-five-innings moneyline at –115, citing an overwhelming mound mismatch. Cincinnati is 6-2-2 on F5 moneylines with Andrew Abbott starting, and the left-hander has limited opponents to one run or fewer in eight of his last ten outings. On the road he’s been even stingier (2.05 ERA, .156 BAA, .273 SLG) thanks to being a fly-ball pitcher away from Great American Ball Park. Cleveland is disastrous against southpaws: 4-12 against left-handed starters overall and, in their last ten such matchups, opposing lefties have surrendered just five earned runs over 60 innings. Meanwhile Slade Cecconi brings a 6+ expected ERA, bottom-20th-percentile batted-ball profile and seven walks over his last three turns. With Cincinnati’s offense seventh in wRC+ and sixth in batting average versus righties the past three weeks, the tout believes the Reds will have the lead by the end of the fifth and at worst push if it’s tied.

Just A Bet Outside said Andrew Abbott’s strikeout prop is worth attacking in Cleveland. The Guardians have posted the 5th-highest K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last three weeks (28.9%), and they are especially left-handed heavy, which plays right into Abbott’s splits. The Reds southpaw owns 59 strikeouts in 53.2 innings this season, has recorded 8, 7, 5, 2, 8, and 6 Ks in his last six outings, and his strikeout rate skyrockets on the road (36.9%) compared to at home (21.5%). Abbott also whiffs lefties at a 30.8% clip—four points higher than he does righties—adding another edge against a Cleveland lineup built around left-handed bats. With that combination of opponent swing-and-miss tendencies and Abbott’s favorable splits, the tout expects Abbott to clear the market number (likely 6+ Ks) and views him as an anchor for K-prop parlays or straight wagers.

Drew Martin backed the Reds at +104 because he expects Andrew Abbott to dominate Cleveland. Martin highlighted Abbott’s 2.18 ERA, sparkling 59-19 K/BB and the fact he’s thrown consecutive road shutouts while struggling only in Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly park. Cleveland’s offense rates bottom-10 by weighted runs created plus, giving Abbott a soft landing in a neutral park. On the other side, Slade Cecconi owns a 5.00 ERA and 6.00 FIP, surrendered five earned and three homers in his lone home start, and carries just a 6-to-5 K/BB in his last two outings. Martin also noted Cincinnati boasts a newly minted top-10 bullpen while Cleveland’s relief corps grades bottom-10. Add in the Reds’ strong splits versus right-handed pitching and the plus price, and Martin sees clear value grabbing Cincinnati on the moneyline.

Razzle said Andrew Abbott is the clear No. 1 arm on the three-game early slate. The young lefty has allowed one run or fewer in eight of his nine 2025 starts, including all six outings in May. He briefly battled control issues but has cut the walks in his last two turns. Milwaukee can be dangerous in Great American Ball Park, yet the Brewers’ wOBA versus left-handed pitching ranks bottom-10, which fits Abbott’s strengths (29 % K rate vs LHB). Given the thin pitching pool, Razzle expects Abbott’s steady run prevention to separate him in both cash and GPP builds despite a modest 5.5 K prop that sits unjuiced.

The Bettor Mark backed Andrew Abbott and the Reds on the money line at +145 in Wrigley Field. He said Abbott has been "fairly impressive" this season and gives Cincinnati a clear pitching edge over the still-undecided Chicago starter. Because wind direction can turn Wrigley into either a launching pad or a dead zone, Mark likes grabbing the plus-money now, noting that a neutral or inward wind would only strengthen the Reds’ advantage. He framed it as a buy-low spot on a divisional dog that should control the mound, making the Reds his preferred side.

Kenny G called Under 9.5 his "very good spot" for Cubs–Reds. Chicago sends Colin Rea (3-0, 2.38 ERA; Cubs 4-1 in his last five) while Cincinnati counters with breakout lefty Andrew Abbott (3-0, 1.80 ERA, one earned run allowed over his past four starts and 11 shutout frames in two most recent home outings). Despite Great American Ball Park’s hitter reputation, both starters are in form and Abbott has yet to see the Cubs’ bats, giving him the unfamiliarity edge. Chicago’s offense can explode (1st in runs), but Kenny noted the Reds’ bullpen has been "good, not elite" and Chicago’s own relief corps is improving. Cincinnati trends 15-8-2 to the under at home, and Kenny doesn’t expect either arm to "have too much trouble" before handing off to competent pens, projecting a 4-3 or 5-3 type finish.

B Wade backed Andrew Abbott to allow fewer than 4.5 hits. Abbott has surrendered five or more knocks just once in six starts (at Coors Field) and enters with a 2.10 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Cleveland is scuffling badly, ranking fifth-worst in MLB with only 329 hits through 44 games—under eight per contest. Given the Guardians’ slump versus lefties and Abbott’s current form, Wade projects another sub-five-hit outing.

Guy Boston recommended Andrew Abbott under 2.5 earned runs at ‑145 on DraftKings. Abbott has cashed this in 4 of 5 starts (80%) and is averaging just 1.6 ER over his last five outings in Cincinnati. The White Sox rank 23rd in MLB with a .217 average versus lefties on the season and have slipped to 25th (.211) over the last 30 games. Abbott limited Chicago to one run in their only 2024 meeting and owns a 1-0 home record against them. Boston noted that even two earned runs still wins the bet and doubts the Sox can muster enough offense to push Abbott over the number.

Malcolm Bamford recommended attacking the first-five under rather than a side in Tuesday’s White Sox–Reds matchup. His logic is that both starters are quietly in form while neither lineup can be trusted. Andrew Abbott has spun nine consecutive scoreless innings and carries a 2.25 ERA over his last five outings, showing the same upper-zone life that powered his early-2023 breakout. On the other side, rookie Jonathan Cannon has ceded only two earned in back-to-back starts and has kept hard-hit rate under 34 percent in three of his last four. Bamford noted that Cincinnati ranks bottom-5 in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching and that the White Sox are batting .219 against lefties, so run support should be scarce. Given Abbott’s strikeout upside, Cannon’s steady command and both offenses’ cold bats, Bamford expects the game to stay sleepy through the opening five frames and prefers F5 under to laying –200 with the Reds or chasing the plus-money dog.

Lonte Smith is willing to eat the –200 with Cincinnati because Andrew Abbott has rediscovered his 2023 form, spinning nine straight scoreless frames and posting a 2.25 ERA over his last five. Abbott’s only real drawback is limited length, but the Reds’ bullpen owns a top-10 K-rate and should protect a lead against a White Sox lineup batting under .220 versus left-handers. Smith said he would have considered Chicago if any other Reds arm were starting, but with Abbott on the hill and the South Siders still dead last in wRC+, he sees little path for an upset.

Just A Bet Outside said Andrew Abbott is a strong strikeout target tonight against the White Sox. Chicago owns the ninth-highest K-rate versus left-handed pitching over the last three weeks (27.5%), while Abbott has already piled up 31 strikeouts in 24 innings. The host highlighted Abbott’s two ceiling starts of 8 and 11 Ks, his healthy 32% strikeout rate against lefties (31.5% vs righties), and elite quality of contact numbers (98th percentile expected ERA, 99th percentile hard-hit avoidance). The only caution flagged was a smaller 21.6% K-rate at home compared to 37.7% on the road, but with just five big-league starts the sample is tiny. He framed it as an attractive over on Abbott’s K prop and a playable DFS pitcher in GPP builds.

Kyle Purviance listed Andrew Abbott’s strike-out over as one of his best bets, saying he will fire on any 6-plus ladder the books post. Purviance reminded listeners that Abbott just fanned 13 in his last turn and now draws a Colorado lineup that has whiffed 77 times in 241 plate appearances versus lefties—a staggering 31.9% rate. Even at Coors Field, he expects the elevation to be neutralized by the Rockies’ chase-happy approach and their bottom-five wRC+ against southpaws. Purviance prefers an alt number because he expects the main line to open around 5.5 juiced; he is comfortable up to 6.5 at plus money, reasoning that Abbott’s swing-and-miss changeup profiles perfectly against Colorado’s aggressive left-hand bats.

Ricky Dimon backed the Reds moneyline at +135, pointing to both a surging Cincinnati lineup and a favorable pitching matchup. The Reds racked up 29 hits and 18 runs in a three‑game set with Seattle earlier in the week, a sign their bats are heating up. Baltimore rookie Cole Povich owns a 5.20 ERA from 2024 and has opened 2025 with an ugly 1.80 WHIP; the Orioles have dropped his last two starts. Dimon noted that Cincinnati starter Andrew Abbott looked sharp in his season debut, limiting Pittsburgh to one run on two hits over five innings. With Abbott likely to receive ample run support against Povich, Dimon labeled the Reds a worthwhile underdog play.

Reichel jumped on Cincinnati at +130, calling Baltimore’s –155 tag “insane” given the Orioles still have no announced starter and rank bottom‑five in staff ERA. He actually likes Andrew Abbott—1‑0, 1.80 ERA, two hits allowed over five scoreless against Pittsburgh—and expects the southpaw to work deeper because the Reds burned several bullpen arms in Thursday’s extra‑inning loss. Baltimore’s rotation is in shambles with Grayson Rodriguez nursing a shoulder flare‑up and Shintaro Fujinami scheduled Thursday (rarely tops five innings), meaning Brandon Hyde could be forced into another piecemeal pitching plan. Offensively the clubs are comparable: the O’s have pop with Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman, but have dropped four of six; Cincinnati owns league‑average power and should see a vulnerable long‑man or spot starter. Reichel therefore prefers Reds full‑game ML and even a first‑five wager behind Abbott, trusting the better defined pitching path and the plus price.

Reichel jumped on Cincinnati at +130, calling Baltimore’s –155 tag “insane” given the Orioles still have no announced starter and rank bottom‑five in staff ERA. He actually likes Andrew Abbott—1‑0, 1.80 ERA, two hits allowed over five scoreless against Pittsburgh—and expects the southpaw to work deeper because the Reds burned several bullpen arms in Thursday’s extra‑inning loss. Baltimore’s rotation is in shambles with Grayson Rodriguez nursing a shoulder flare‑up and Shintaro Fujinami scheduled Thursday (rarely tops five innings), meaning Brandon Hyde could be forced into another piecemeal pitching plan. Offensively the clubs are comparable: the O’s have pop with Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman, but have dropped four of six; Cincinnati owns league‑average power and should see a vulnerable long‑man or spot starter. Reichel therefore prefers Reds full‑game ML and even a first‑five wager behind Abbott, trusting the better defined pitching path and the plus price.

Stan Son suggested Andrew Abbott as a DFS value pitcher despite concerns about velocity and strikeout potential. Abbott makes his season debut after being activated from the 15-day injured list (shoulder injury). He's priced attractively at $7,100, offering contrarian appeal due to low ownership expectations linked to his IL status. Despite struggling last year (92 mph fastball, 19.5% strikeout rate, 10.6% K-BB%, 1.63 HR/9, and 5.04 FIP), Abbott faces a favorable matchup against an offensively weak Pittsburgh Pirates team, which currently slashes just .198/.289/.301 with an ISO of .103 (third-lowest in MLB). They've struggled even more against lefties (.192/.259/.273 with a .081 ISO). Additionally, Oneil Cruz may miss the game again. Abbott recently threw over 90 pitches in his rehab start, indicating no pitch-count concerns.

Lonte Smith identified Cincinnati moneyline at -120 as a lock wager considering their favorable home pitching matchup with Andrew Abbott returning from injury. Abbott carries a proven career track record, while Pittsburgh pitcher Andrew Heaney is due for regression after a surprisingly strong start. Smith underlined Pittsburgh as a team to fade following a strong start, believing Cincinnati's home environment and favorable scheduling facing Pirates rotation back-end pitchers present excellent betting value on the Reds.

Lonte Smith recommended betting Cincinnati at home against Pittsburgh, specifically noting Cincinnati avoids facing Pittsburgh’s ace Paul Skenes, who is not scheduled in this series. Andrew Abbott returns from the injured list and historically has been solid (career 3.78 ERA). Smith sees this as a prime offensive spot for Cincinnati at home against Andrew Heaney, despite Heaney's strong early performances, due in part to the favorable pitching matchup by avoiding tougher Pirates starters. Smith supports betting the Reds on the run line anticipating a big offensive showing.

Cash Out Sports Picks expects the Pittsburgh Pirates' bats to take advantage of Andrew Abbott's season debut, fresh off a shoulder injury. Abbott hasn't pitched yet this season, making him a vulnerable target for a Pirates offense finding its groove lately. Pittsburgh has recently exceeded projected totals often, going over in five of their last six matchups, including strong offensive outputs against the Cardinals and Yankees. Abbott's uncertain readiness is a significant factor to confidently anticipate Pittsburgh generating runs.