Ricky Dimon backed the Reds moneyline at +135, pointing to both a surging Cincinnati lineup and a favorable pitching matchup. The Reds racked up 29 hits and 18 runs in a three‑game set with Seattle earlier in the week, a sign their bats are heating up. Baltimore rookie Cole Povich owns a 5.20 ERA from 2024 and has opened 2025 with an ugly 1.80 WHIP; the Orioles have dropped his last two starts. Dimon noted that Cincinnati starter Andrew Abbott looked sharp in his season debut, limiting Pittsburgh to one run on two hits over five innings. With Abbott likely to receive ample run support against Povich, Dimon labeled the Reds a worthwhile underdog play.

Reichel jumped on Cincinnati at +130, calling Baltimore’s –155 tag “insane” given the Orioles still have no announced starter and rank bottom‑five in staff ERA. He actually likes Andrew Abbott—1‑0, 1.80 ERA, two hits allowed over five scoreless against Pittsburgh—and expects the southpaw to work deeper because the Reds burned several bullpen arms in Thursday’s extra‑inning loss. Baltimore’s rotation is in shambles with Grayson Rodriguez nursing a shoulder flare‑up and Shintaro Fujinami scheduled Thursday (rarely tops five innings), meaning Brandon Hyde could be forced into another piecemeal pitching plan. Offensively the clubs are comparable: the O’s have pop with Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman, but have dropped four of six; Cincinnati owns league‑average power and should see a vulnerable long‑man or spot starter. Reichel therefore prefers Reds full‑game ML and even a first‑five wager behind Abbott, trusting the better defined pitching path and the plus price.

Reichel jumped on Cincinnati at +130, calling Baltimore’s –155 tag “insane” given the Orioles still have no announced starter and rank bottom‑five in staff ERA. He actually likes Andrew Abbott—1‑0, 1.80 ERA, two hits allowed over five scoreless against Pittsburgh—and expects the southpaw to work deeper because the Reds burned several bullpen arms in Thursday’s extra‑inning loss. Baltimore’s rotation is in shambles with Grayson Rodriguez nursing a shoulder flare‑up and Shintaro Fujinami scheduled Thursday (rarely tops five innings), meaning Brandon Hyde could be forced into another piecemeal pitching plan. Offensively the clubs are comparable: the O’s have pop with Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman, but have dropped four of six; Cincinnati owns league‑average power and should see a vulnerable long‑man or spot starter. Reichel therefore prefers Reds full‑game ML and even a first‑five wager behind Abbott, trusting the better defined pitching path and the plus price.

Stan Son suggested Andrew Abbott as a DFS value pitcher despite concerns about velocity and strikeout potential. Abbott makes his season debut after being activated from the 15-day injured list (shoulder injury). He's priced attractively at $7,100, offering contrarian appeal due to low ownership expectations linked to his IL status. Despite struggling last year (92 mph fastball, 19.5% strikeout rate, 10.6% K-BB%, 1.63 HR/9, and 5.04 FIP), Abbott faces a favorable matchup against an offensively weak Pittsburgh Pirates team, which currently slashes just .198/.289/.301 with an ISO of .103 (third-lowest in MLB). They've struggled even more against lefties (.192/.259/.273 with a .081 ISO). Additionally, Oneil Cruz may miss the game again. Abbott recently threw over 90 pitches in his rehab start, indicating no pitch-count concerns.

Lonte Smith identified Cincinnati moneyline at -120 as a lock wager considering their favorable home pitching matchup with Andrew Abbott returning from injury. Abbott carries a proven career track record, while Pittsburgh pitcher Andrew Heaney is due for regression after a surprisingly strong start. Smith underlined Pittsburgh as a team to fade following a strong start, believing Cincinnati's home environment and favorable scheduling facing Pirates rotation back-end pitchers present excellent betting value on the Reds.

Lonte Smith recommended betting Cincinnati at home against Pittsburgh, specifically noting Cincinnati avoids facing Pittsburgh’s ace Paul Skenes, who is not scheduled in this series. Andrew Abbott returns from the injured list and historically has been solid (career 3.78 ERA). Smith sees this as a prime offensive spot for Cincinnati at home against Andrew Heaney, despite Heaney's strong early performances, due in part to the favorable pitching matchup by avoiding tougher Pirates starters. Smith supports betting the Reds on the run line anticipating a big offensive showing.

Cash Out Sports Picks expects the Pittsburgh Pirates' bats to take advantage of Andrew Abbott's season debut, fresh off a shoulder injury. Abbott hasn't pitched yet this season, making him a vulnerable target for a Pirates offense finding its groove lately. Pittsburgh has recently exceeded projected totals often, going over in five of their last six matchups, including strong offensive outputs against the Cardinals and Yankees. Abbott's uncertain readiness is a significant factor to confidently anticipate Pittsburgh generating runs.