Bill Harrelson advised betting Austin Hays under 1.5 total bases, labeling the Underdog line a clear error given the market. Hays has stayed below this threshold in nine of his past ten games—including five straight—and 14 of his last 20 (70 %). Over a 59-game 2025 sample he is under in 58 % of contests (34/59), while last season he failed to reach two bases in 56 of 80 games (70 %). DraftKings, Caesars, Hard Rock, Novig, and Fliff are all heavily juiced to the under, underscoring Harrelson’s claim that "everyone and their mother thinks Underdog messed this one up." He also noted Hays has fallen short in five consecutive home games, one more reason to attack the line. With no major changes in role or batting-order spot and the consensus pricing heavily tilted toward the under, Harrelson expects another quiet night at the dish from Hays.

Eric Lindquist targeted Austin Hays to strike out two or more times, noting Hays’ 28% K-rate against right-handed pitching and his propensity to chase breaking balls below the zone. Miami’s bullpen, which Lindquist highlighted for a 26% collective strikeout rate, amplifies the upside because Hays is likely to face multiple high-leverage relievers with plus swing-and-miss stuff after Jansen Junk exits. Lindquist paired Hays with fellow whiff-happy teammate Tyler Stevenson in the same market, emphasizing that books are still mis-pricing individual batter strikeout props because few bettors attack them. He framed it as a niche angle with consistent closing line value, especially in spacious loanDepot Park where contact turns into outs rather than hits.

Austin Swaim targeted Austin Hays 2+ Total Bases at +105, emphasizing how Hays’ tiny 5.9% walk rate versus righties meshes with Colin Rea’s contact-heavy 80.9% rate (seventh straight season above 78%). Rea allows fewer grounders to same-handed bats (32.8% GB) and has little swing-and-miss, setting Hays up for loud contact in homer-friendly Cincinnati. Hays has cashed this prop in four of his last eight starts, and FanDuel Research projects 1.89 median total bases—worth about -129 fair odds—so Swaim sees value at plus money.

It's The Final Round pointed to Austin Hays as a value hitter against Miles Mikolas. Hays is 6-for-16 (.375) lifetime versus the veteran right-hander and has collected a hit in 13 of his last 14 games. The tout expects the combination of strong BvP numbers and current form to translate into another successful night for Hays, recommending over 0.5 hit or 1.5 total bases wagers.

Ryan Wormeli highlighted Austin Hays as his favorite widely-available hitter add. Since coming off the IL Hays owns a .361 average, 1.040 OPS, three homers and a steal in just 36 at-bats. Under the hood looks even better: 18.5% barrel rate (triple last year’s mark), 51.9% hard-hit rate (career-best) and expected numbers that back it up (xBA .329, xSLG .674, .443 xwOBA). Hays is walking at the second-highest rate of his career while maintaining a manageable strikeout rate. Wormeli loves the combination of elite early-season batted-ball data and the fact Hays now plays half his games in Great American Ball Park, one of MLB’s premier launching pads. With roster rates under 40% on Yahoo and 20% on ESPN, Wormeli said managers should scoop him up everywhere and "ride him until the bat cools off."

Even though rostered in fewer than 25% of ESPN leagues, Austin Hays made Zola’s streaming list because of the same juicy Coors matchup. The right-handed outfielder owns a career .280/.325/.467 line versus lefties and could benefit from Cincinnati’s high-octane context in Denver, making him a sneaky fifth-outfielder play.

Erik Halterman urged adding Austin Hays now that he’s healthy and batting cleanup for Cincinnati. Great American Ball Park is one of MLB’s most hitter‑friendly venues, so even a league‑average hitter can return fantasy value in that lineup spot. Halterman acknowledged Hays’ 2023 swoon (699 OPS, 5 HR in 85 games) but blamed it on injuries and a kidney infection. From 2020‑22 Hays hit .261 with a 752 OPS and averaged 19 homers per 600 PA – production that easily clears the bar when paired with everyday cleanup duties in Cincy. Halterman views Hays as a widely available, low‑cost path to run‑production stats in most formats.

Calling Austin Hays one of his favorite buy‑lows, Beermakersfan noted the price tag still hasn’t adjusted after Hays’ productive return from injury. The outfielder posted a .402 wOBA and 52% hard‑contact rate versus southpaws last year, and he’ll get 15–20 mph winds blowing out to left—conditions Beer says can turn routine flies into homers. He tossed in a "revenge" narrative and labeled Hays a near‑lock cash value and a sneaky tournament one‑off under $3K on DK.