Guy Boston Sports recommended betting Bowden Francis over 2.5 earned runs allowed at –130 on DraftKings. The tout highlighted that the right-hander has surrendered 3.15 earned runs per start in 2025 and has cleared this line in 8 of 13 outings (62%) and in 7 of his last 10 (3.7 ER/game). Against Philadelphia specifically, Francis has been rocked for 9 earned runs in two recent meetings (4.5 ER/game average), including a six-run blow-up less than two weeks ago. The Phillies’ bats rank top-10 in batting average versus righties and feature multiple fastball mashers—Kyle Schwarber (.504 wOBA vs fastballs), J.T. Realmuto (.445), Trea Turner (.406), Nick Castellanos (.365), Max Kepler (.378)—while Francis relies on the heater 57.7% of the time. Add in his 8th-percentile batting-average-allowed and 7th-percentile ERA plus an ugly FIP, and the tout expects another rough outing.

B Wade said Bowden Francis is an ideal fade at 5.5 hits allowed because the Phillies have owned him every time they have seen him. They racked up six knocks and three earned last season, then seven hits and six earned less than two weeks ago when he was yanked after recording only five outs. Francis has surrendered at least six hits in six of his last nine overall and is 2-for-2 on the over versus Philadelphia. Wade expects the matchup problems to continue and bet the over on 5.5 hits allowed.

For weekly leagues that lock on Monday, Maher advised choosing Bowden Francis over Nick Martinez as a two-start streamer. Francis draws Texas and then Oakland at home, which Maher grades as a far friendlier combo than Martinez’s book-end in Wrigley. Texas’ lineup has cratered to league-average production and Oakland owns the worst OPS in baseball. Even though Francis’ surface stats are ugly (6.86 ERA), Maher trusts the 25% K rate, 12% swinging-strike rate and two soft opponents to rack up strikeouts and at least one quality start. He would avoid Martinez’s second start on the road in Chicago altogether.

Francis bet Bowden Francis under 4.5 strikeouts. The right-hander has stayed below that number in three of his last five starts and averages just 73 pitches per outing. Detroit’s offense, fresh off a productive series in Boston, owns the seventh-lowest K-rate versus right-handed pitching (19.4%). With the Tigers making consistent contact and Toronto likely to keep Bowden Francis on a short leash, Brad expects four punch-outs or fewer.

Welsh warned that Francis’ six-plus solid innings Sunday were fool’s gold. Under the hood he owns a 5.40 ERA with an even worse xERA, a 17 % K-rate, 12 % barrel rate, and 50 % hard-hit rate. Both primary pitches carry opponent xBAs 40-plus points higher than league average. Unless he strings together four straight dominant outings, Welsh sees him strictly as a matchup-based streamer and would not chase him on waivers in anything shallower than 15-team formats.

Dana Lane said to back the Blue Jays at -118 on Sunday because he trusts Bowden Francis’ recent uptick in form more than Tanner Bibee’s. Lane noted that Francis has worked into the sixth inning in three straight starts and owns a 3.18 ERA over that span, while still striking out nearly a batter per frame. Both pitchers have been stung by the long ball—nine homers apiece over their last five outings—but Lane pointed out Bibee’s overall 5.27 ERA in those five starts compared to Francis’ sharper recent run. He added that opponents are batting .273 against Cleveland on the road and the Guardians are just 1-1 in this series despite winning four of their last five overall. With Toronto laying only –118 and an opening total of 8 (under –112), Lane viewed the Jays as the superior value play to close the series.

Peterson took the Blue Jays at +101 (made them -136). Since the 2024 All‑Star break Bowden Francis sports a 2.20 ERA and 1.6 BB/9, whereas Bryan Woo’s ERA (2.89) hides a higher 3.36 FIP and his K/9 has dipped to 7.6. Seattle torched its bullpen in a 10‑inning game Thursday and ranks 17th in relief ERA; Toronto sits 11th and is fresh. Add the home park edge and the Jays rate as sizeable favorites in Peterson’s model.

Kenny G praised Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis for looking quite promising in his first two starts of the season, highlighting his strong outings against the Nationals and the Mets (3.18 ERA total). Francis limited New York to two earned runs despite allowing six hits and gave up only two home runs in his first outing against the Nationals, with no other runs allowed. Kenny G warned, however, about Toronto's bullpen issues (high 4.47 ERA), limiting overall enthusiasm for Toronto in betting terms. Still, Francis individually stands out positively, with potential upside heading into future starts.

Chris Mitchell is targeting Bowden Francis as a prime buy-low pitcher due to his dual SP/RP eligibility and drastically improved second-half performance last season. After a disastrous start to 2024, Francis turned around strongly in the second half, dominating with high strikeout numbers and elite ratios which Mitchell compares favorably to Cy Young-caliber pitching. He notes Francis started 2025 strong already with a quality start and four strikeouts. Mitchell anticipates Francis being virtually untouchable trade-wise once he accumulates around six starts, strong ratios, and high strikeout totals by May. He recommends offering second-tier closers or hot-starting arms like Robbie Ray or Zach Eflin to acquire Francis early.

Previously praising Francis' strong spring, Eric Lindquist now specifically advises betting Bowden Francis to exceed 4.5 strikeouts. Francis dominated after returning from injury last year with elite numbers—1.53 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, and a 56-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio from late July onward, resulting in borderline Cy Young-caliber play down the stretch. Lindquist stresses Francis clearly stands out among today's fifth-starter options, making this a prime spot to capitalize on Francis' elite strikeout upside against a struggling Nationals lineup prone to Ks, with this wager attractively priced at -130 odds on DraftKings.

Eric Lindquist singled out Toronto pitcher Bowden Francis as someone to watch closely due to a particularly strong second half last season and standout spring training performances. Lindquist noted his excitement around Francis' potential, even as he referred to much of the day's pitchers as subpar options due to fifth-starter rotations. While Lindquist didn't specify a bet involving Francis directly, his confidence indicates potential value in matchups featuring Francis through early season DFS contests or selective betting opportunities.