Lonte Smith’s home-run pick is Brandon Nimmo, citing a perfect storm of factors. Rockies starter Antonio Sensatela has surrendered 4+ earned runs in six straight outings and owns a 7.89 ERA during that stretch. Citi Field will have 12-mph winds blowing out to right, boosting left-handed power. Nimmo has five hits in his last three home games after snapping an 0-for-17 slump on the road and now faces a pitcher allowing a .406 OBP the second and third time through the order. Lonte emphasized that Nimmo has not homered since May 11, so sportsbooks are hanging a friendlier number than usual on his HR prop—an angle he wants to exploit in both betting markets and DFS tournaments.

It's The Final Round highlighted Brandon Nimmo as a plus EV single-hit parlay piece against Bailey Falter. Nimmo owns a 5-for-12 track record with a homer (.417) versus the Pirates’ left-hander and rides a current five-game hitting streak. Falter has been tagged by lefties all season (the tout referenced the .300+ BAA filter he uses for his model) and does not possess a put-away breaker that normally troubles Nimmo. Given the favorable BvP numbers and Nimmo’s recent form, he expects at least one knock and suggested sliding the Mets leadoff man into multi-leg hit parlays.

Zola highlighted Mets bats as prime streaming options in Washington, singling out Brandon Nimmo but also mentioning Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez, and Jeff McNeil. The Mets face rookie Brad Lord, whom THE BAT X projects for a 5.20 ERA and sub-18% K-rate. Nationals Park boosts left-handed power by 5%, enhancing Nimmo’s leadoff appeal. With Lord’s minor-league walk issues (10% BB-rate at Double-A) and a shaky Nats bullpen behind him, Zola expects plenty of on-base chances and run-scoring upside for daily-lineup managers hunting short-term offense.

Data Skrive identifies Mets' Brandon Nimmo as a tantalizing prop bet to homer at very appealing +600 odds. Nimmo's powerful start—with 2 home runs through 6 games, a strong 33.3% home run rate—makes him a fantastic bet to continue his hot streak versus Blue Jays pitching.