Kenny G recommended taking the Pirates as live underdogs behind Braxton Ashcraft. Since moving into the rotation Ashcraft owns a 2.70 ERA and has dominated in consecutive starts, allowing just one hit over five innings to Colorado and striking out Cubs hitters in bunches. He faces Miles Mikolas, who sports a 5.17 ERA and was torched by Tampa Bay in his last outing. St. Louis has scored only 1-3-7-2 runs in its last four and is now four games under .500, while Pittsburgh’s offense has plated 28 runs over its previous five and gets a morale boost from Cruz returning off the IL. With the Cardinals free-falling and the Pirates’ bullpen holding firm this series, Kenny sees clear value on Pittsburgh’s money-line at plus money.

Guy Boston Sports targeted a first three innings under 2.5 at +105 in Milwaukee–Pittsburgh. Braxton Ashcraft owns a 1.50 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in seven bullpen outings and brings a slider-heavy repertoire the Brewers have not seen. He expects the youngster to navigate the order once before Craig Counsell’s hot lineup makes adjustments. On the other side Chad Patrick’s cutter (44%), sinker (24%) and four-seamer (21%) line up perfectly against a Pirates attack that is bottom-10 versus four-seamers and bottom-5 against sinkers. Milwaukee’s offense has been red hot overall, but he doubts they detonate immediately against a brand-new look, and Pittsburgh’s bats are unlikely to solve Patrick early. He still leans Brewers full game because the Pirate bullpen ranks 25th in xFIP, yet the primary wager is that both starters keep things quiet through the first trip of the order.