Just A Bet Outside said the Philadelphia Phillies team total over 2.5 runs is his favorite leg because Bryce Elder simply cannot keep opponents off the board. He pointed out that clubs have scored 3-plus runs in 20 of Elder’s 23 outings and the right-hander has surrendered at least two earned in 12 straight starts. The Phillies already torched him for nine earned on ten hits and four walks on June 27, and they own MLB’s third-best home scoring mark at 5.3 runs per game. Over the last three weeks Philadelphia ranks third in wRC+, second in OPS, and second in batting average versus righties, while the Braves bullpen has been leaking runs and is familiar to the Phillies after Thursday’s blow-up. All those factors led him to expect the Phils to clear three runs with room to spare.

Kenny G recommended grabbing Atlanta at +110, calling the Braves a potential “dog of the day.” Bryce Elder already held the Mets to two runs over seven innings on August 13, and Kenny believes a merely decent outing is enough because David Peterson is coming off a season-high 8-inning, 10-strikeout start — workloads that have led to subsequent blow-ups for him before. Peterson was also rocked by Atlanta earlier this month, and the New York bullpen has drifted to a 3.95 ERA. The Mets are just 27-36 on the road and 31-27-5 to the under away, supporting Kenny’s view that their lineup travels poorly. Atlanta’s offense, still 10th in OBP, can capitalize on any fatigue from Peterson and New York’s shaky relief corps. With plus money attached, Kenny likes the Braves moneyline.

Chris Ruffolo’s lone player prop is Bryce Elder over 2.5 earned runs allowed. He called Elder "dog water" and said he has been cashing tickets fading him all season, so he will keep riding that angle and expects at least three earned against the Mets on Thursday.

Just A Bet Outside advised fading Bryce Elder in Friday’s Braves-Marlins matchup. Although Elder’s last outing at Cincinnati looked respectable, Steven warned listeners not to be fooled, calling the right-hander “hot Garbaggio.” Elder owns a bloated ERA supported by a high hit rate and troubling walk numbers, and his expected metrics paint an even uglier picture. The tout contrasted him with Miami starter Edward Cabrera—"Ben Solid" in recent turns—implying a first-five Marlins play or attacking Elder’s earned-runs, hits, or total-bases against props. The key rationale: Elder is consistently allowing traffic, lacks swing-and-miss stuff, and is ripe for negative regression despite the one blip of success.

Just A Bet Outside recommended betting OVER on Bryce Elder’s hits-allowed prop, noting the Atlanta right-hander has surrendered 7+ knocks in five straight starts and an absurd 8+ in four straight. Elder’s pitch-to-contact profile (17.3 % K-rate, 43 % hard-hit allowed) combined with an 11.3 % walk rate means constant traffic, and the host joked he’s "trying to become the new Sensatela." Facing a Giants lineup that ranks top-10 in contact rate over the last month, the tout expects another 7–9 hits and would attack any line at 6.5 or lower.

Just A Bet Outside advised continuing to attack Bryce Elder in the betting markets. Elder has fallen apart during his last three outings, surrendering 25 hits and 18 earned runs in only 10.2 innings. The host emphasized that hitters are teeing off on every pitch and Elder is showing no ability to miss bats or get out of trouble. Until Elder strings together at least one quality start, Steven plans to bet opposing team-total overs or first-five inning overs whenever the right-hander takes the mound, noting that bookmakers have not fully adjusted after last year’s breakout.

Kyle Purviance said bettors should look to fade Atlanta whenever Bryce Elder is on the mound. He pointed to Monday’s game in Colorado as yet another example—despite the Rockies being baseball’s worst club, they jumped out to a quick 3-0 lead against Elder before falling apart late. Purviance’s broader point was that Elder rarely misses bats and routinely puts his team in early holes, creating live-bet or full-game opportunities to take the opposing side or the opposing team total. While the Braves’ offense can bail him out, Kyle emphasized that the right-hander’s volatility makes Atlanta overpriced whenever he draws the start.

Drew Martin urged bettors to fade Bryce Elder and take the Twins at +120. Elder’s fastball has lost the second‑most velocity of any qualified MLB starter, a sign Martin believes hints at an underlying injury. The Texas product has already surrendered eight earned runs, 12 hits and four homers in just 10 innings. Atlanta also returns home for the first game after a 2‑4 road trip— a spot Martin historically dislikes. On the other side, Chris Paddack’s ERA is an ugly 10.00, but Martin stressed that nine of those earned runs came in one blow‑up debut; his last two appearances have been solid. Given Elder’s alarming metrics and Atlanta’s flat offense, Martin felt the plus money on Minnesota was too good to pass up.

Derek Farnsworth recommended fading Braves starter Bryce Elder in DFS due to concerning underlying numbers and unfavorable matchup. Elder carries an alarming 8.68 xERA with struggles generating strikeout upside (just 20% K rate). Facing Tampa's potent lineup, with hitters like Brandon Lowe showing large xwOBA splits (.487 vs RHP), Elder's downside is significantly amplified. The expected run total of 4.47 for the Rays further underscores the difficult task ahead, advising fantasy players to find safer alternatives.

Eric Lindquist expressed strong interest in betting the Dodgers run line against the Braves, specifically targeting Bryce Elder. Elder allowed troubling numbers last season, with metrics such as a .285 expected batting average, 45.3% hard-hit rate, and an 8.7% barrel rate. Lindquist emphasized previous success betting against Elder (8-2 record), strongly favoring Blake Snell and highlighting that the Dodgers had rest advantages with a fresh bullpen after Monday's off day. He saw exceptional value getting nearly even money (-105) on a run line bet against Elder's vulnerability and an uneasy Braves squad.