For White Sox-Reds, Malstrom is on the YRFI because both projected starters are liabilities. Bryse Wilson and Nick Martinez each allow more than a hit per inning and struggle to strand baserunners, trends reflected in their elevated run and RBI totals allowed. With Cincinnati’s youthful core and Chicago’s few competent bats hitting at the top of the order, he expects at least one of the teams to break through before the second frame.

MacPherson recommended betting Bryse Wilson under 3.5 strikeouts at +120 or better, citing Portfolio EV projections. Wilson is stretching back out after relieving but still profiles as a pitch-to-contact arm; models peg him for just 3.7 Ks. Miami’s projected lineup owns a league-low 17.7% strikeout rate since the start of last season, and Guaranteed Rate Field boosts offense compared with Wilson’s previous Miami home park. Although Wilson threw 89 pitches in his last outing and notched four punchouts, the +120 line represents a 4.3% expected ROI based on Stokastic’s simulations, making the under a +EV wager.