Carlos Carrasco

Tokyo Brandon recommended betting against Yankees pitcher Carlos Carrasco in the first five innings when they face the Diamondbacks. Brandon emphasized that Carrasco, now 39 and having battled cancer, has significantly declined recently, with WHIP declining from a prime of around 1.00 to as high as 1.70 in recent seasons. Carrasco's season opener was particularly troubling: in just two innings against a struggling Milwaukee lineup, he allowed three earned runs and gave up a home run. Additionally, Carrasco last faced Arizona in 2024 and was hit hard, surrendering four earned runs in four innings. Considering Arizona ranks third in MLB offense per Brandon's metrics, he expects Carrasco to be vulnerable again early in the matchup.

Greg Peterson advises fading Carlos Carrasco due to uncertainty in his pitching length and recent struggles. Carrasco has struggled significantly since 2021, posting a 5.36 ERA, 4.66 FIP, and allowing 1.5 home runs per 9 innings. His rocky 2025 relief outing versus Milwaukee (3 runs in 2 IP) creates uncertainty about how deep he'll pitch. Despite the Yankees' strong bullpen (2nd-best AL ERA: 3.62 in 2023), Peterson believes Arizona has betting value at -104, versus a fair implied price of -123.

Peter Dewey recommended betting the under on Carlos Carrasco's strikeout total (set at 3.5) due to a combination of matchup difficulty and short leash. Carrasco struggled in his season debut for the Yankees, pitching just two innings while allowing three runs and five hits against Milwaukee. Dewey noted the strong plate discipline of the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup, averaging only 6.83 strikeouts per game, third-lowest in MLB. With Carrasco unlikely to pitch deep into the game and facing a lineup that rarely strikes out, Dewey expects him to stay under the set strikeout total.

Kyle Purviance advises betting the under on Carlos Carrasco's strikeout prop against the Diamondbacks. Carrasco recorded only two strikeouts in two innings against the Brewers before getting pulled early in his last appearance. Arizona has been among the toughest teams to strike out early this season, ranking second-fewest in team strikeouts. Given Arizona's ability to consistently put the ball in play and Carrasco's current struggles, Purviance strongly advocates the strikeout under as a play if the line opens around 3.5.

Bettor Mark advises betting the Diamondbacks at +115 in their matchup against the Yankees, explicitly citing a fade of starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco. Mark respects Carrasco's past career but explicitly distrusts the veteran based on recent performance despite a decent spring training. He sees significant value, calling the Yankees a "sucker bet" at their favored price, and emphasizes his confidence in Arizona's offense after they won 4-3 the previous day, though he believes they left additional runs on the table. He recommends exploiting this inflated line in favor of Arizona.