Just A Bet Outside said Chase Burns is set up for another punch-out party in Pittsburgh. The Pirates own the 10th-highest strike-out rate against right-handed pitching over the last three weeks (23.6%), and Burns has piled up 47 Ks in only 28.1 innings. He has recorded double-digit strikeouts in three straight outings when the weather hasn’t interfered, and even his "lower" road K-rate is still an absurd 31.5%. Steven noted Burns actually strikes out righties (37.9%) slightly more often than lefties (35.2%), a plus because the projected Pirate lineup skews right-handed. The tout framed this as one of the two best strikeout prop spots on Friday’s 15-game slate and implied riding the over on Burns’s K prop despite the small-sample road split.

Matt Perrault is backing the Reds at +109 in Saturday’s novelty game inside Bristol Motor Speedway. He acknowledged that hard-throwing starter Chase Burns owns an ugly 9.28 road ERA and Cincinnati has dropped every one of his July appearances, but he likes the matchup because "the Braves stink offensively right now," managing only two runs Friday and losing three of Spencer Strider’s five July starts. Strider’s road ERA is 4.42 with a .218 opponent average and he’s alternated wins and losses all month, a trend Perrault expects to continue. Cincinnati sits just three games out of a Wild Card spot and needs every victory, whereas Perrault framed Atlanta as listless and "going nowhere." He believes the spectacle atmosphere favors the younger, hungrier Reds and predicts they will secure Burns’ first team win of July at a very playable plus-money price.

Malcom Bamford played the Reds at –138, noting that Burns has already cashed as a +150 and +140 dog and is 3-for-4 on quality starts. Paying sub-–140 for him is still a bargain compared with the night he closed –240 against Colorado. On the flip side, Brad Lord has 35 relief appearances but only six starts, all in April/May when Washington went 2-4 and opponents barreled him up. With the Nationals’ bats ice-cold and their bullpen about to do the heavy lifting, Bamford thinks you simply eat the short price on Cincinnati.

Lonte Smith laid the –1.5 with Cincinnati because Chase Burns keeps flashing frontline stuff. Burns has allowed only three earned runs total in his two July outings while striking out 17, including a one-run gem in Philadelphia. The Reds are 6-4 over their last ten and finally hitting, whereas Washington is 2-8 in that span and has scored two or fewer in five of those games. With Brad Lord making just his seventh career start—and the Nationals likely turning it into a full-on bullpen game—Lonte does not want any part of a relief corps that already owns a bottom-five ERA. He projects Cincinnati to post seven-plus runs and win something like 7-2 or 7-3, making the run line the preferred angle.

Just A Bet Outside said Chase Burns is a strong over play on his strikeout prop tonight against Colorado. The Rockies have the single-highest strike-out rate versus right-handed pitching over the past three weeks (27.9%). Burns has already piled up 15 strikeouts in just 10 big-league innings, logging outings of 8 and 7 Ks when he’s made it out of the first. His own splits back the matchup: a 33.3 % K-rate versus right-handed bats compared to 28.6 % versus lefties. Even if Cincinnati limits him to roughly 80–90 pitches, four or five innings should still be enough to clear a 5.5-or-lower line against this whiff-happy lineup.

Just A Bet Outside said Chase Burns is worth an over bet on his strikeout prop in Fenway. The rookie fanned the first five hitters he ever faced and finished his MLB debut with 8 Ks on 81 pitches against the Yankees. Across four minor-league seasons he carried an eye-popping 89 strikeouts in 66 innings with only 13 walks, reinforcing that the whiffs are real. Boston has the fourth-highest strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching over the past three weeks (25.7%), so the host expects plenty of swing-and-miss opportunities even in a tough park. The tout acknowledged small-sample risk—this is only start No. 2—but believes the matchup, Burns’s pitch count, and his lifelong bat-missing profile justify an aggressive stance on the K ladder.

Razzle likes the plus-money over on Chase Burns’ 5.5 strike-out prop and is comfortable pairing him with Crochet in the same DFS lineup. Burns fanned the first five Yankees he faced in his debut and finished with a 34 % CSW. With Boston missing Rafael Devers and posting a middling 23 % K-rate versus righties this month, Razzle sees room for six to eight punch-outs at a bargain $6.3K salary.