Greg Peterson highlights Chris Paddack as a pitcher to bet against after a disastrous beginning to his 2024 season. Paddack has allowed 13 total runs, with 12 earned, across just 7 2/3 innings in his first two outings this season. This rough stretch further worsens his subpar career ERA of 5.41 across four seasons with the Twins. Meanwhile, Tigers starter Jackson Jobe has encountered command issues himself but benefits from Detroit's bullpen, which has posted the second-best ERA in MLB since July 1, 2024. Peterson believes the Twins' struggling offense, ranked just 25th with fewer than 3.4 runs per game, only supports fading Paddack. Backing Detroit at +103 moneyline presents value compared to Peterson's projected line of Detroit -114.

Dylan Rockford enthusiastically highlighted betting the Tigers team total over as a strong play against Chris Paddack, emphasizing Paddack recently got lit up badly by the anemic Chicago White Sox offense. With Detroit currently hitting a robust .265 on the road and an even better .291 against right-handers, Rockford sees the Tigers, who had Thursday off and should be rested, setting up nicely to aggressively hammer Paddack. He anticipates Detroit easily surpassing their team total, making this a confident wager in addition to his broader preference for betting Tigers moneyline and overall game over 7.5 runs.

Eric Polzin identified Chris Paddack as another pitcher to target for the under on fantasy score prop bets. Polzin emphasized that PrizePicks assigns points based heavily upon wins (6 points) and quality starts (4 points), which Paddack is unlikely to achieve. With Paddack below the 45% threshold of probability for either a win or a quality start, Polzin flagged this as a situation where PrizePicks' calculated fantasy score line fails to reflect his true performance expectation. He noted the slight scoring differences between PrizePicks and Underdog, specifically highlighting that Underdog awards 5 points each for the win and quality start instead. Ultimately, Polzin felt Paddack's fantasy score was set overly high, setting bettors up nicely for an under wager.

Bettor Mark expresses strong interest initially in betting Houston Astros at plus money (+105) on the money line against the Twins due to Chris Paddack's very poor first start and the Twins' league-worst .182 batting average. He acknowledges that in a vacuum, Houston seems like a tempting play given these factors. However, the Astros' persistent offensive woes (.199 team batting average, ranked 25th) severely undermine his confidence. Ultimately, despite acknowledging the inherent value, he strongly advises caution and elects to avoid the Astros until tangible offensive improvement emerges, labeling the situation as 'fishy.'

JD Bets confidently supports betting Houston Astros moneyline at plus 100, explicitly targeting a fade against Chris Paddack following his disastrous recent start against the White Sox. Paddack surrendered an incredible nine earned runs in just a few innings, raising serious concerns evident in his elevated 24.30 ERA and poor control. Given Houston's stronger offense compared to Chicago, JD expressed a strong belief the Astros should have no trouble handling Paddack, endorsing the Houston moneyline without reservation.