Lindquist circled CJ Abrams’ home-run prop against Jack Flaherty, saying his break-even number is only +295 and anything longer merits a wager. Flaherty is giving up a .239 ISO, .220 expected ISO, and a 17.8° average launch angle to left-handed bats, and Nationals Park will be hot and humid, historically juicing carry. Abrams’ pull-side power has quietly grown all summer, and Lindquist believes the market will focus on prospect James Wood, leaving Abrams’ price soft. Detroit’s bullpen is stingy, so he prefers the first five innings HR market if books post it, but any outright HR odds north of +300 are a play in his eyes.