Joe Pisapia signaled concern for Clay Holmes after a shaky performance, emphasizing that his spring training success largely came throwing to catcher Francisco Alvarez, who pitchers reportedly prefer working with. Pisapia suspects changing catchers could be disrupting Holmes' rhythm, suggesting fantasy managers closely monitor Holmes' performance in the absence of Alvarez as it could influence Holmes' strikeout upside and overall fantasy reliability moving forward.

Chris Bennett endorses Clay Holmes ($8,500) despite limited innings so far this season, thanks to Holmes' favorable matchup against the weak Marlins lineup. Miami strikes out at a high 27.5% rate against right-handers, and they are hitting with a meager .095 ISO and 70 wRC+. Holmes' strong groundball tendencies, evidenced by a lofty 67.9% groundball rate this season, further enhance the appeal, despite concerns of strong winds at Citi Field.

Derek Carty of THE BAT X recommended betting the over on Clay Holmes' 5.5 strikeout prop (-100 odds), forecasting a 59% chance of hitting and an $18 expected value. A critical factor is Citi Field, projected as the third-best park in MLB for increasing pitcher strikeouts according to advanced metrics.

Bettor Mark highlighted potential sneaky value on the Marlins as significant underdogs (+200 moneyline and plus runs), despite ultimately not betting himself. He voiced notable skepticism regarding Mets pitcher Clay Holmes, openly not being a big fan of his abilities. While Mark admitted the Mets' bats appear to be waking up, he still noted Miami's sneaky appeal to stay competitive or even upset New York. The plus-money line for Marlins offers intriguing upside versus a heavily overpriced Mets team that Mark warns might struggle unexpectedly. However, due to conflicting factors and unpredictability around Connor Gillespie's matchup, he ultimately recommend staying away, even though he clearly expressed a lean favoring Miami's side at juicy odds.

Just a Bet Outside recommended taking Mets minus one and a half runs against the Marlins, largely due to pitcher Clay Holmes. They noted Holmes' transition from reliever back to starter—highlighting his nasty pitch arsenal and a promising MLB debut allowing only two earned runs versus a strong Houston lineup despite some control issues (four walks). They believe Holmes will improve his command quickly given his previous starter experience in college. Further support comes from a mismatch against Marlins' Connor Gillespie, who has pitched just 13 MLB innings total, struggled in his first start against the weak Pirates lineup (walking four and giving up three runs), and was recently hit hard (six earned runs) by the Mets in spring training. Additionally, the Mets have a significantly deeper and stronger bullpen—another advantage cited by the tout. They emphasized that after Marlins just winning Game 2, the Mets will feel urgency to win this series, making the Mets run line (-1.5) bet particularly attractive in this scenario.

Sean Zerillo loves Clayton Holmes' strikeout prop over 3.5 at -165 odds (also recommending over 4.5 at +128), emphasizing Holmes' full optimization moving from reliever to starter in the Mets' rotation. Holmes historically struggled against lefties (career 4.3 xFIP vs 2.9 vs righties) but introduced a new 'kick change' this spring to complement his elite slider and sinker. Zerillo noted Holmes' exceptional spring: 23 strikeouts in 72 batters faced, projecting a rate above 30% Ks sustainable once stabilized. Holmes threw 88 pitches in his last spring outing, indicating he'll comfortably extend to 90-95 pitches opening day. Zerillo confidently projects if Holmes maintains these improvements, he's a legitimate NL Cy Young contender. The projection systems and Action Labs strongly support betting Holmes' strikeout overs, reflecting Holmes’ potential breakout season.

Brit Devine recommended betting over 3.5 strikeouts for Clay Holmes in his first start transitioning from the bullpen against the Astros. Devine cited Holmes' excellent spring results, with 23 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings and a new "kick change" pitch added to his arsenal. Although the Astros project as a low strikeout team, Devine emphasized Holmes being fully stretched out and capable of easily surpassing this low strikeout total. Holmes' spring performance and expanded pitching repertoire suggest he will comfortably exceed this threshold.

Peter Appel advocated targeting Clay Holmes early in the season based on significant improvements made over the offseason. Holmes, previously a reliever, transitioned into a starting role and expanded his repertoire significantly. He now features six distinct pitches—including a newly added kick-change, improved four-seam fastball, and a cutter—making him difficult for hitters to prepare for early in the year. Holmes excelled in spring training, posting a 0.98 ERA in 19.1 innings alongside an impressive 31.9% strikeout rate. Appel emphasizes that typically spring stats can be misleading, but given Holmes' substantial adjustments, hitters will struggle early, particularly without comprehensive scouting data available.

Iain MacMillan recommended betting Clay Holmes under 4.5 strikeouts in his first start of 2025 against the Astros. Holmes transitioned from reliever to starter and switched from the Yankees to the Mets. His strikeout rate already declined from 10.1 per nine innings in 2023 to 9.7 per nine innings in 2024. Now facing a consistently low-strikeout Astros lineup, Holmes may struggle to accumulate strikeouts, making him a heavy fade candidate on Opening Day.