Lindquist said Daulton Varsho is breaking his home-run model and wants action on a Varsho long-ball (and even a sprinkle on a two-homer "double-dong"). Bailey Ober has surrendered a .215 expected ISO to lefties and .213 to righties, so platoon advantage hardly matters. Varsho owns a 440 actual ISO and 372 expected ISO versus right-handed pitching in 136 plate appearances this season, dwarfing Lindquist’s baseline threshold. He compared that to prospect Addison Barger’s still-strong .254 xISO to emphasize just how silly Varsho’s power profile looks. In Lindquist’s view, anything north of +300 is a must-bet, and Ober’s fly-ball tendencies inside Rogers Centre give Varsho a ceiling few books are pricing correctly.

Lindquist recommended a quarter-unit play on Daulton Varsho to homer at anything longer than +355 against Tampa Bay right-hander Zack Littell. Varsho carries a 57.1 % hard-hit rate, a 95.6 mph average exit velocity, and a 23-degree launch angle—an ideal power profile. Littell has already surrendered four homers to lefties in only 21 IP this season and six total long balls while sporting a 1.14 WHIP. Lindquist called the matchup “pure lefty power” and expects the Rogers Centre roof closed, enhancing carry. The market moved from +420 to +370 on similar spots Wednesday, so he advises locking it in early.

Daulton Varsho owns 5 homers in just 10 games since returning, a scorching 40% HR-per-game pace. FanDuel lists him at +400 (implied 20.0%) to leave the yard against Tampa Bay on May 15. Even acknowledging the small sample, the current rate doubles the break-even threshold, offering sizeable theoretical value for bettors willing to ride Varsho’s power surge.

Kelly Kirby threw cold water on the Daulton Varsho hype, reminding listeners that last season’s 136-game sample produced just a .214 batting average despite 18 homers and 10 steals. Kirby warned that Varsho no longer carries catcher eligibility—a big part of his original fantasy appeal—so managers are absorbing that average drain at an outfield spot they could otherwise use for upside. While highlight-reel defense keeps him in Toronto’s lineup, Kirby believes the stick remains deeply flawed and could "tank your batting average into oblivion" in roto or points leagues that penalize outs. She’s fine rostering him in AL-only or 15-team formats for cheap power, but urged caution in shallower season-long leagues where the replacement-level outfielder won’t torpedo ratios.

Carty recommended betting Daulton Varsho OVER 0.5 HR at +550. THE BAT X pegs a 17% chance (EV $11.28) because Varsho’s extreme fly-ball tendencies line up beautifully against Boston starter Tanner Houck, an extreme ground-ball pitcher. That batted-ball mismatch, paired with the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, creates a juicy payout opportunity.