Kenny G said he is backing Tampa Bay at the current –130 number despite the road tag. His confidence centers on Drew Rasmussen, who he called "so lights-out here recently," versus Cleveland spot-starter Slade Cecconi. Kenny highlighted the Guardians’ sputtering bats—28th in MLB in runs, dead-last in average and OBP, with just 11 total runs over their last seven games (3-0-0-0-3-2-5)—and noted their recent five-game skid. While Cleveland’s 3.64 bullpen ERA is an edge on paper, he argued the Rays’ pen is close enough and their lineup is “clearly way better,” giving Tampa the overall advantage. With the Guardians only 31-32 at home and Tampa’s offense poised for a bounce-back, he leaned Rays money-line as the best betting angle.

Bill Harrelson recommended betting Drew Rasmussen under 4.5 hits allowed against Cleveland. Rasmussen has cashed this prop in eight of his last ten outings and 18 of 25 starts this year (72 %). In a 29-game sample extending to last season he is 22-for-29 on the under. He limited the Guardians to a single hit in their most recent meeting and owns a .213 opponents’ batting average that sits in the top 15 % of MLB starters. Cleveland is the league’s worst offense versus right-handed pitching with a .225 team average, bolstering Harrelson’s confidence that the Guardians will struggle to reach five knocks.

Bill Harrelson recommended the less-than 5.5 strikeouts line on Drew Rasmussen in Seattle. Rasmussen has failed to reach six punch-outs in nine of his last ten starts and 16 of his last 18. His lone meeting with the Mariners last season produced only two strikeouts. On the 2025 campaign he has exceeded 5.5 Ks in just 4 of 22 starts (18%), and if you include 2024 he is 22-for-26 to the under. Books are already moving the number, and Harrelson views that steam as confirmation. With Seattle’s strikeout rate sitting near league average and Rasmussen rarely working deep into games, he projects another 4-to-5 K night and calls the under one of the best value props on the board.

Lindquist is again attacking Drew Rasmussen unders across the board—hits, earned runs, and especially outs recorded—because the Rays continue to baby the right-hander’s workload. Rasmussen has thrown only two innings in three straight starts and still hasn’t topped 75 pitches since returning from the IL. Even with a sub-3.00 ERA, Lindquist argues the limited volume makes any traditional over props mis-priced. He expects books to reopen numbers late (they were absent most of the day in Rasmussen’s last outing) and suggests parlaying multiple unders for plus money, noting the White Sox tagged him for two earned in that brief stint and that Tampa clearly prioritizes long-term health over stretching him out in July.

Lonte Smith will back Tampa –1.5 as long as the price is reasonable, even with the starting-pitcher mystery on Chicago’s side. Drew Rasmussen has a 2.64 ERA at Tropicana Field and the Rays are 19-8 in their last 27 home games. Smith did acknowledge Tampa plans to monitor Rasmussen’s innings, so a 5-inning outing is possible, but he still trusts a rested bullpen against a White Sox club fresh off a 506-run (!) weekend that he views as pure variance. Chicago is down to TBD after scheduled starter Shane Smith hit the IL, meaning a bullpen committee versus a Rays team desperate to bounce back from a 3-7 stretch. Smith expects the matchup to serve as a get-right spot, projecting a 6-3 Tampa win and prefers the run line to an inflated moneyline.

Dylan Rockford grabbed the Rays –1.5 at plus money, calling Tampa a 'wagon' in this spot. He trusts Drew Rasmussen’s 2.45 ERA and strong Tropicana splits, and he pointed out that Oakland is batting only .235 on the road while its bullpen was taxed in Sunday’s blow-out loss to the Yankees. Rockford expects Tampa’s deeper relief corps to stretch the margin late once Rasmussen exits after his typical five-inning stint. With the better lineup, home park edge, and fresher pen, Rockford is happy to take the plus-odds run-line price.

Razzle pointed to Drew Rasmussen’s 0.86 HR/9 and 2.76 ERA at Tropicana Field as reasons to fire him up against an Oakland squad that is feast-or-famine. While the 5.5 K-prop is shaded to the under, Rasmussen posts a 24 % strike-out rate at home and limits barrels, making him a safe SP2 on DraftKings. Razzle will monitor weather but expects Rasmussen to deliver 18+ DK points if the roof stays closed.

Eric Lindquist wants to play Drew Rasmussen under 2.5 earned runs, noting the prop could even open at plus money. Rasmussen owns a 2.61 ERA (3.53 xERA) and has dominated right-handers with a microscopic 0.76 WHIP across 39 IP; Kansas City’s projected lineup is almost entirely right-handed outside of rookie Jack Caglian and Vinnie Pasquantino. While hot, humid conditions and a breeze out to center at Kauffman usually point bettors toward overs, Lindquist trusts Rasmussen’s pitch mix to neutralize the environment: the Rays righty’s cutter/slider combination has held opponents to a .226 xBA, and his 29% CSW is a career best. With only two dangerous lefties to navigate and limited hard contact (31% hard-hit rate), Lindquist expects six strong innings and sees value in the earned-runs under before books adjust.

B Wade took Drew Rasmussen under 1.5 walks allowed. Rasmussen has eclipsed this number only four times in 15 starts and has never gone over it in any of his four road appearances this season, allowing just three total walks away from Tropicana Field. He also hasn’t issued more than one free pass in back-to-back games all year and comes off a one-walk outing, reinforcing the trend. Wade trusts Rasmussen’s command to stay sharp and sees the line as a value play, slotting it into a 2.8x Chalkboard slip.

Bryce Hunt said to take the Tampa Bay Rays first-five moneyline at 0.0 (push protection) because Drew Rasmussen is finally healthy and shoving. Rasmussen has leaned on a 96 mph four-seam, a heavy-cut usage, and a sinker that lets him work all quadrants; Hunt compared the fastball/cutter combo to a lite Mariano vibe. Kauffman Stadium’s spacious outfield further helps the right-hander by keeping the ball in the yard. Michael Wacha has ridden his elite change-up to good surface numbers for Kansas City, but Hunt trusts Tampa’s platoon wizardry to stack right-handed sticks such as Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero, a profile that historically neutralizes Wacha’s change. With the Rays back to their usual 90-win pace and Rasmussen on the bump, Hunt sees clear value over the first five frames and is laying one unit on the play.

Scott Reichel said the only way to attack Orioles-Rays is to lay the –0.5 on Tampa in the first five innings. He trusts Drew Rasmussen’s 2.55 ERA and 5–1 run over his last six starts far more than Charlie Morton’s ugly 7.97 road ERA. Rasmussen has allowed just two combined earned runs in his last four outings, but Reichel noted the minor red flag of 13 hits surrendered in his past two appearances after giving up only 14 in the previous five. Still, he believes Baltimore’s offense rarely strings together late rallies, so fading Morton early is the safest path. Tampa has scored 7-plus runs in six of its last ten and just swept the Mets, while the Orioles’ lineup goes quiet once it falls behind. Reichel projects a quick Tampa lead and would only look at a Rays team-total over if he wanted additional exposure.

Razzle likes Drew Rasmussen as a mid-tier play only if Tampa’s rain risk subsides. Rasmussen has logged three straight six-inning shutouts while allowing just nine hits total, yet he has been capped at 81-86 pitches all year. Efficiency is mandatory, but the matchup versus a sputtering Rangers offense averaging 3.1 runs per game over the last two weeks helps. Razzle recommends checking radar up to lock; if the game looks safe, Rasmussen becomes a strong SP2 in builds that prioritize expensive bats.

Romanelli rolled with Tampa Bay because the Rays have climbed above .500 and into second place in the AL East while the Rangers’ offense continues to seesaw. Drew Rasmussen has been sharp and should benefit from a generous pitcher’s park at Tropicana Field, whereas Texas starter Tyler Mahle faces a Rays lineup that has started to click. Given Tampa’s current form and the Rangers’ inconsistency, Romanelli prefers the Rays on the moneyline.

Martin took the under 8.5 citing elite arms and lockdown pens. Rasmussen has rattled off three consecutive wins without allowing an earned run, most recently yielding just one hit to Minnesota. Opposing him, Tyler Mahle owns a 5-2 record and 1.60 ERA and already blanked Tampa for five innings earlier this year. Offensively, Texas remains ice-cold: bottom-three in wRC+ over the past week and bottom-three versus right-handed pitching on the season; they’re also 9-18 at home (Tropicana is serving as a temporary park). Finally, bullpen grades seal it—Martin’s numbers rank the Rangers as MLB’s No. 1 relief corps with Tampa "not far behind." He projected a 3-2 or 4-2 type final, well below the posted total.

Derek Carty’s THE BAT X projects a 66% hit rate for UNDER 2.5 earned runs (-160) on Drew Rasmussen. Chase Field grades as the worst HR venue (No. 30) in Carty’s park factors, and Arizona’s contact-oriented lineup ranks just 18th in ISO. Rasmussen’s heavy cutter/slider mix keeps the ball on the ground, amplifying the park’s suppressive effect. The bet carries a +$12.33 expected value per unit risked.

Reichel isolated a first‑five innings bet on Tampa Bay, citing a glaring mound edge: Drew Rasmussen has a 0.60 ERA through three turns (five shutout frames every time) while Carlos Rodon has been tagged for 4+ earned in three straight, surrendering a homer in every outing. The Yankees remain extremely home‑run dependent—if the ball stays in the yard they struggle to string hits—so Rasmussen’s high ground‑ball rate (56%) profiles well. By focusing on the first five, bettors avoid the often‑taxed Rays bullpen and the Yankees’ late‑inning leverage arms. With the market dealing –110 both ways, Reichel believes Tampa should be a clear favorite for the opening half‑game and expects the Rays to be leading after five due to Rasmussen’s consistency and Rodon’s ongoing command woes.

Reichel isolated a first‑five innings bet on Tampa Bay, citing a glaring mound edge: Drew Rasmussen has a 0.60 ERA through three turns (five shutout frames every time) while Carlos Rodon has been tagged for 4+ earned in three straight, surrendering a homer in every outing. The Yankees remain extremely home‑run dependent—if the ball stays in the yard they struggle to string hits—so Rasmussen’s high ground‑ball rate (56%) profiles well. By focusing on the first five, bettors avoid the often‑taxed Rays bullpen and the Yankees’ late‑inning leverage arms. With the market dealing –110 both ways, Reichel believes Tampa should be a clear favorite for the opening half‑game and expects the Rays to be leading after five due to Rasmussen’s consistency and Rodon’s ongoing command woes.

Reichel isolated a first‑five innings bet on Tampa Bay, citing a glaring mound edge: Drew Rasmussen has a 0.60 ERA through three turns (five shutout frames every time) while Carlos Rodon has been tagged for 4+ earned in three straight, surrendering a homer in every outing. The Yankees remain extremely home‑run dependent—if the ball stays in the yard they struggle to string hits—so Rasmussen’s high ground‑ball rate (56%) profiles well. By focusing on the first five, bettors avoid the often‑taxed Rays bullpen and the Yankees’ late‑inning leverage arms. With the market dealing –110 both ways, Reichel believes Tampa should be a clear favorite for the opening half‑game and expects the Rays to be leading after five due to Rasmussen’s consistency and Rodon’s ongoing command woes.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommends backing Tampa Bay on the Money Line, citing a clear advantage in starting pitching consistency. Drew Rasmussen has been sharp for the Rays, allowing only five hits and one run through his first 10 innings of work. In contrast, Atlanta starter AJ Smith-Shawver has struggled early in his career, permitting 13 hits and five runs in less than nine innings so far. The Braves have provided zero run support in his starts, while also losing key offensive contributors and sitting tied for fewest wins in MLB. The Rays' recent form improvement also makes them the reliable pick in this matchup.

Scott Reichel is confidently backing the Rays at about -165 against Pittsburgh. He highlights Tampa starter Drew Rasmussen as a dependable pitcher capable of consistently delivering good innings. Scott points out Pittsburgh's dreadful pitching performances recently, specifically mentioning their inability to win a four-game series against Miami due to repeated pitching implosions. Considering Tampa's clearly superior bullpen, strong home performances, and Rasmussen's dependability, Reichel sees Tampa easily winning against Pittsburgh's struggling arms.