Lindquist locked in San Diego first-five moneyline at +105, arguing Dylan Cease is "so much better than Luis Castillo" once bullpens are removed from the equation. Even conceding T-Mobile Park’s run-suppression and Seattle’s potent lineup, he projects Cease as a clear favorite over five innings. His fair line is closer to –115, creating a 20-cent edge. Cease’s strike-out-heavy profile worries Lindquist only over a full game; in a low-variance five-inning window he expects the superior raw stuff to beat Castillo’s declining velocity and luck-driven surface stats.

Just A Bet Outside advised jumping on Dylan Cease’s strikeout over after his rare two-K dud against the Dodgers. The Giants carry the third-highest strikeout wave versus right-handers at more than 25%, and Cease has already racked up 171 Ks in 132.2 innings. Stephen reminded listeners that Cease posted seven strikeouts in just five innings when he saw San Francisco on June 5 and that his home K-rate sits at an elite 31.7%. With seven or more punch-outs in five of his last six before the blip, Stephen expects Cease to rebound in a big way Thursday.

For Cardinals–Padres, Drew Martin targets the under, expecting a pitchers’ duel between Andre Pallante and Dylan Cease. Pallante just spun seven scoreless one-hit innings against Miami and, in Martin’s words, is 'tough to time up.' Cease owns a shaky 3-10 record overall but has consistently dominated weaker lineups and now draws a St. Louis offense that has been stagnant for weeks. Because oddsmakers may inflate the total based on those ugly win-loss numbers rather than current form, Martin prefers attacking the under instead of a side.

Eric Lindquist said Dylan Cease is his favorite pitching target on Monday and urged bettors to climb the strikeout ladder. Cease has punched out 29.6% of hitters this season and pairs that whiff rate with a serviceable 10% barrel rate, giving him leash to attack aggressively in the zone. Lindquist expects books to open Cease’s line at 6.5 strikeouts and is willing to pay juice up to −125 on the alternate 8-plus K prop, mirroring the approach he used on Kenta Maeda Sunday. The matchup sweetens the deal: Frankie Montas owns a gruesome .306 ISO allowed to lefties and should create early Padres run support, letting Cease work deep. The Mets lineup features high-K bats like Juan Soto (now a Met) and carries a collective 24% strikeout rate versus right-handed four-seam/slider combinations, Cease’s exact arsenal. With limited travel and a spacious Petco backdrop, Lindquist believes Cease handles volume and efficiency, making multiple K-ladder rungs a +EV way to attack the late game.

Rockford’s model made the total 8.7, so he played Over 8 at even money. He cited Dylan Cease’s 0-6 road record, .265 opponent average, and 3-plus runs allowed in six of his last seven away starts. Sandy Alcantara has been even worse, carrying a 7.14 ERA overall and a 5.37 mark at home while surrendering 22 earned across his last four outings (23 IP). The Marlins quietly rank as a top-10 home offense, and neither bullpen can be trusted. All signs, Rockford said, point to a game that gets into double digits more often than not.

Millz Young likes Dylan Cease to eclipse his 6-strikeout line. Cease has cashed this number in three of his last five starts (60% clip), and Young believes the All-Star break reset means the Padres right-hander will come out fresh and attack hitters the way bettors remember from his White Sox days. He projected Cease for seven or more Ks and played the over.

Joey Pisapia said fantasy managers should use the current meltdown to buy Dylan Cease at a steep discount. Cease surrendered six runs over six innings in his latest start, pushing him into the bottom six qualified ERAs, yet Pisapia pointed out his expected ERA is still considerably better. He blamed the blow-up on slider command—Cease could not land it for strikes, issued walks, then became a predictable two-pitch fastball arm—but noted that when the slider is right the ceiling remains SP1-caliber. With frustrated managers openly shopping him online, Pisapia believes the acquisition cost has sunk below arms like Kris Bubic or Adrian Houser, making this the best entry point of 2024. He would still take Cease over either Bubic or Lucas Giolito rest-of-season and expects positive regression once the slider feel returns.

Lindquist grabbed the Padres moneyline at –108 on FanDuel, convinced the books are slow to adjust for how bad Bobby Miller has been and how reliable Dylan Cease now looks in brown and gold. Miller is expected to be recalled to start for L.A.; his five MLB innings this season produced a 12.6% barrel rate and the Dodgers sent him down only to watch him post a 5.87 ERA in Oklahoma City. Cease, meanwhile, has a 31% K-rate, leans on a slider Dodgers hitters own just a .116 xBA against, and routinely works six frames. With both bullpens middling, Lindquist thinks the true line should be Padres –125 and stressed taking the FanDuel price before it disappears.

Razzle will grudgingly roster Dylan Cease in tournaments at $8.4k. The right-hander owns a 5.5 K prop heavily juiced to the over and has eclipsed 19 DK points only three times, but two of those came against elite offenses (Yankees, Guardians). Cease’s home numbers are markedly better, and his swing-and-miss arsenal gives him a path to a 25+ score even against the dangerous Dodgers. Razzle warns the floor is ugly—runs have followed the strikeouts all year—but the price/ceiling combo is too tempting to ignore in GPPs.

Kenny G is fading the Padres again—he put them on his personal "ban list"—and advised taking Atlanta at –134. He acknowledged Dylan Cease has settled down (no more than three earned in five straight), yet San Diego is only 2-3 in those outings and its once-elite bullpen is down to 3.56 ERA. More concerning is a lineup that has produced 1-2-6-0-1-1-1 runs over the last seven and now ranks 17th in scoring. Kenny contrasted that with Atlanta’s 16-8 home record and said the return of Ronald Acuna Jr. (two homers in two games post-ACL) reignites an offense that is otherwise middling (19th runs) but capable. Rookie Spencer Schwellenbach is admittedly volatile, yet owns a respectable 3.60 ERA and hands off to an above-average bullpen. Ball-park trend favours the host: Truist Park is 15-7-2 to the under, suggesting Cease will not get much run support. Kenny leans under 8 but the stronger position is Braves money line, projecting a 4-3 or 5-3 home win.

Razzle labeled Dylan Cease a tournament staple. Despite Toronto’s low K% and Cease’s rocky road splits, the righty still owns a 5.5 K-prop, +130 Win odds, and slate-best strikeout stuff when he’s on. Given Monday’s thin pitching board, Razzle believes Cease has a realistic chance to post the highest raw score on the slate and is willing to live with the volatility for GPP leverage.

Malcolm Bamford laid the -1.5 run line with San Diego. He highlighted Dylan Cease’s floor—two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts—and the Padres’ dominant splits at Petco (14-4 at home, 23-14 ATS as favorites). Even though Jose Soriano sports a slick 2.42 road ERA, Los Angeles has still lost every one of his recent outings on the run line, illustrating how little margin the Angels’ offense gives him. Bamford added that the Halos have dropped Soriano’s last five starts by multiple runs and remain a bottom-five club in OPS versus right-handed pitching. With San Diego’s bats firing and a bullpen advantage, he projected a comfortable 5-2 or 6-3 final.

Lindquist recommended building a Dylan Cease strikeout ladder against the Angels. Cease is already fanning 27% of hitters, but Lindquist expects an even higher clip Wednesday because the Angels’ lineup is almost entirely right-handed. Outside of switch-hitters like Luis Rengifo and Yoan Moncada and lone lefty Nolan Schanuel, the Halos run nine righties who have collectively struck out at a top-10 rate versus right-handed pitching. Cease’s whiff rate on his slider remains elite, and Lindquist believes alternate lines (8+, 9+, 10+ Ks) are all in play given the matchup.

Just A Bet Outside pegged Dylan Cease as another strikeout bet because the Angels have the single-highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching over the past three weeks (27.7%). Cease has 48 Ks in 40.1 innings and is coming off a 9-strikeout, one-hit gem versus the Yankees. He sports a 28.6% K-rate at Petco compared to 25.3% on the road, and the host noted Cease’s volatility—he fanned only three Pirates two turns ago—but expects the whiff-happy Angels to bring out Cease’s ceiling. The recommendation was to attack the over on his strikeout prop and consider him a high-upside, high-variance DFS tournament play.

Mike Maher urged listeners to treat Dylan Cease as a premium buy-low. The right-hander left his Yankee Stadium start with what was initially announced as a forearm issue—terrifying shorthand for Tommy John—but the Padres clarified it was only a cramp caused by dehydration. Maher noted Cease’s surface stats look ugly (4.91 ERA, 1.41 WHIP), yet every underlying metric screams positive regression: 3.34 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, 3.65 SIERA and a 4.02 xERA, all better than last season’s actual 3.47 ERA. Strikeout rate remains elite and over a batter per inning, setting the stage for another 200-plus K campaign once his walk rate normalizes. Maher views the "Dylan Cease experience" as a roller coaster that ultimately lands in the mid-3s ERA range and said managers should pounce before the market realizes the forearm scare was just a cramp.

JD Bets attacked Dylan Cease’s hits-allowed prop, taking over 4.5 (–113) and expecting at least five Yankee knocks. Cease is averaging 5.57 hits per outing this season and faces a Bronx lineup JD ranked fourth in baseball over the last two weeks. He highlighted three Yankees starters owning batting averages of .304 or better versus right-handed pitching (.395, .317, .304 on his sheet) and pointed to Cease’s 10/4 BB/K ratio in his two most recent trips as evidence the right-hander has had to live in the zone. JD passed on the Yankee moneyline because of their shaky bullpen but trusts New York’s blazing bats to tag Cease early and often, forecasting 5–7 hits against the Padres ace.

Bryan Zarpentine targeted Dylan Cease over 4.5 hits allowed at even money, noting the Yankees' offense is far tougher than Pittsburgh, the only club held to three hits in Cease's last five outings. In the four previous starts, the Rays, Astros, Cubs and A’s all racked up six or more knocks. With Cease carrying a 5.76 ERA and facing a red-hot Judge/Goldschmidt tandem, Zarpentine said he would have been comfortable at 5.5 hits, so 4.5 is a "no-brainer" fade.

Chris Welsh said the over 6.5 strikeouts for Dylan Cease at +100 (or better) is a smash play. He noted we "rarely" see Cease’s line this low because the right-hander owns a 29% K-rate and has cleared seven punch-outs in five of his last seven starts. The matchup sweetens the pot: Pittsburgh’s active roster strikes out 26.8% of the time versus righties, fifth-worst in MLB. Welsh added that Cease’s slider whiff rate sits above 40% and the Pirates have a bottom-three run value against sliders. He believes Cease can cash the ticket by the fourth inning if he gives one of his typical 7-IP outings, making the plus money “a gift” for prop bettors.

JD Bets said he is fading Dylan Cease and played the OVER 4.5 hits allowed prop for Friday’s start in Pittsburgh. Cease has been tagged for at least five hits in four of his last five outings (6-6-7-8), including against light-hitting clubs such as Oakland and Cleveland. The Pirates, meanwhile, rank eighth in batting average and total hits over the past two weeks and carry several left-handed bats batting .300+ versus right-hand pitching. JD pointed out that he will not touch strikeout or outs props because a 70 percent rain forecast could shorten Cease’s appearance, but a weather-shortened stint still leaves enough time for Pittsburgh to rack up five knocks. He labeled the over on Cease’s hits allowed as his preferred betting angle from the game, weather permitting.

Millz Young pushed Dylan Cease over 4.5 strikeouts, noting the prop also cashes 80 percent of the time at 5.5. Cease’s fastball–slider combo still produces a 31 percent K rate, and the Padres keep him on the mound long enough (six-inning average) to rack up punch-outs even when his control is shaky.

Romanelli recommended a full-game under at PNC Park, pointing to two strikeout arms and two ice-cold offenses. Dylan Cease’s 3.90 ERA hides a 2.80 xERA, and he now pitches in one of the league’s most forgiving parks against a Pirates lineup that is bottom-five in barrel rate. Mitch Keller counters with a 31 % CSW over his last three outings while drawing a Padres offense that ranks 28th in OPS versus right-handers in the past 14 days. Romanelli likes both bullpens—especially San Diego’s top-five unit by WAR—to slam the door once the starters exit, making a low-scoring opener his preferred wager.

Martin advised betting the Padres with Dylan Cease on the hill at PNC Park, recommending a moneyline play up to ‑140 or a run-line look if the price is steeper. Cease’s ugly ERA is inflated by one nine-run blow-up in early April; outside of that he owns 36 K in 29 IP with swing-and-miss stuff that should slice through a Pittsburgh lineup ranked 27th in wRC+. The Pirates counter with Mitch Keller (3.90 ERA) who is unlikely to replicate last week’s quality start versus the Dodgers. San Diego had Thursday off while Pittsburgh played a day game, giving the Friars the travel/rest advantage in addition to the superior arm and lineup.

Erik Halterman said Dylan Cease is a classic buy-low because every surface number that scares fantasy managers (5.76 ERA, 1.62 WHIP through six starts) is being driven by noise, not skill erosion. Cease’s 3.57 SIERA lines up with last year’s 3.46 and his 2022 career year (3.48). The strikeout rate is only slightly down at 26.5% vs a 28.3% career mark, while the walk rate remains improved at 8.8% after several seasons north of 10%. What is killing his ratios is a .388 BABIP (career .294) and a 62% strand rate (career 73%). Halterman emphasized that one nine-run blow-up versus Oakland on April 8 is doing most of the damage; remove that outing and Cease owns a 3.51 ERA. The skills say he’s the same pitcher you drafted, but his manager might panic when seeing the inflated ERA/WHIP, making now the perfect time to trade for him at a discount in season-long leagues.

Brad Francis is selling Dylan Cease’s punch-out upside, betting Under 6.5 Ks. Cease has failed to clear that number in three of his first five starts, and Francis believes the underlying form backs another short outing: command issues have elevated his pitch counts, and opponents are chasing less frequently than they did during his White Sox peak. With the strikeout prop still posted at 6.5, Francis sees value in betting against a rebound.

For Sunday Night Baseball Martin is siding with San Diego. Dylan Cease is coming off his lone poor start of the year but still carries a 34 % K‑rate and elite slider (40 % whiffs). Framber Valdez is tough, yet Petco has played like a mild hitter’s park early and the Padres lineup has cashed four of Martin’s last five tickets. He will ride the Friars at anything –115 or better and would consider a Cease K‑prop over 7.5 if juice is reasonable.

Kenny G anticipates Dylan Cease's significant bounce-back performance against the Cubs after a dismal recent outing versus the Athletics (9 ER in 4 IP). Citing Cease's overall pedigree and the Padres' elite bullpen (MLB best 1.51 ERA), Kenny confidently favors the Padres at -167. While acknowledging Cubs starter Jameson Taillon improving slightly since his rough opener, Kenny remains lukewarm, partly due to Taillon surrendering a home run in each start this year (6.06 ERA overall). Facing the potent Cubs lineup (top-ranked in runs scored), Kenny agrees the challenge is significant but still sees San Diego as the pick, trusting Cease in this spot despite recent struggles.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended placing a money line bet on the Chicago Cubs against the Padres, citing San Diego pitcher Dylan Cease's shaky form. Cease has surrendered 13 hits and 10 runs over his last 10.1 innings, struggling to regain control. Chicago's offense has been steady, scoring four or more runs in 11 of their last 14 games. Moreover, Cubs starter Jameson Taillon has rebounded impressively after a rough initial outing, allowing just nine hits and five runs while striking out 13 over his past two starts. Given the favorable pitching condition and solid Cubs offense, Cash Out Sports Picks finds substantial value in betting Chicago at plus odds.

Mike Maher strongly advocated for buying low on pitcher Dylan Cease after his disastrous last start ballooned his ERA to 7.98. Despite surface stats looking ugly, Maher highlighted Cease's underlying 2.67 FIP and solid mid-3s peripherals indicating impending regression. Maher recalled Cease's history of inconsistent starts in the past, which often presented temporary buy-low windows. He emphasized the value of securing 200 strikeouts and a mid-3 ERA, making Cease an appealing acquisition target while his perceived market value is suppressed. Maher suggested trading offensive assets like Michael Harris, Anthony Santander, or Luis Robert to secure Cease.

JD Bets strongly supports betting Dylan Cease over 6.5 strikeouts in his matchup against the Athletics. Cease has started the season consistently, registering seven strikeouts in each of his first two games against strong lineups (Atlanta and Cleveland). JD noted the Athletics' lineup as one of MLB's worst in terms of strikeout rate, historically comparable with Boston as high-strikeout teams. Given this historically favorable matchup for strikeouts, JD sees excellent value in betting Cease to exceed 6.5 Ks at a current line of -120, confidently labeling it as good play for the slate.

Guy Boston confidently recommends betting on Padres first five innings today, backing Dylan Cease against the Athletics. Cease shows strong early-season form and solid historical success against Oakland hitters. His slider-heavy repertoire particularly exploits the Athletics lineup’s struggle with this pitch. While slightly cautious about San Diego's bullpen fatigue, Guy sees outstanding value isolating the first five innings—emphasizing Cease's expected dominance and San Diego’s superior, though less-optimal-than-usual, righty-friendly lineup matchup against Jeffrey Springs.

Jamie Calandro advocated Dylan Cease as a top pitching option due to his immense strikeout upside versus the Oakland Athletics. Cease already boasts a 32.6% strikeout rate and 12.4% swinging-strike rate this season, suggesting positive regression in his strikeouts. Oakland was notably weak against right-handed pitching last year, ranking 29th in wRC+ and holding the second-highest K rate. Despite the uncertainty around Oakland's park impact this year, those metrics indicate significant strikeout potential for Cease making him an elite DFS option.

Jim Sannes recommends taking the under on Dylan Cease's 6.5 strikeouts line, focusing on the Athletics' significantly improved lineup. Last season, Oakland carried a high 24.9% strikeout rate, but roster adjustments have now lowered this figure dramatically to a modest 22.9% against righties since the start of last season and an even lower 19.8% rate in the limited 2025 sample. Cease's recent profile emphasizes limiting hard contact rather than strictly high strikeout totals, especially relevant in a road matchup tonight. Accounting for these factors, Sannes' model sees considerable value betting Cease's strikeout total under the posted number.

Brian advised to fade Dylan Cease in Saturday's matchup against Houston due to Cease's recent struggles with his command and consistency. He pointed to Cease's 5.8 walks per 9 innings through his first four starts, a significant deterioration from his 2.8 BB/9 career average entering the season. Combined with Houston's lineup ranking third-highest in walk rate and among the lowest in chase rate at pitches outside the zone, Brian sees Cease as especially likely to have another shaky outing and recommends fading him in both betting and DFS formats.

John Alesia highlights Dylan Cease as a viable DFS pivot at an elevated salary of $9,300, projecting lower owned due to the tough ballpark conditions. Despite not rating Cease too highly overall, Alesia likes his leverage potential, especially if combined with chalky stud Paul Skenes at the top two pitcher salaries, suggesting this route greatly differentiates lineups while maintaining strikeout upside.

Brian Howard is hesitant to back Dylan Cease against the Braves after being wrong previously on a similar matchup with Chris Sale against San Diego. While acknowledging Cease as clearly superior to Reynaldo Lopez, Howard admits being severely mistaken in the prior Padres game makes him hesitant to confidently back Cease again versus Atlanta's strong lineup. He advises caution betting on Cease given his recent misreading involving the Padres.