Raz Lovengrynes wants exposure to Eduardo Rodriguez in San Francisco. Even after allowing "a bunch of runs" last outing, E-Rod fanned 10 Phillies and now draws a friendlier Giants lineup in Oracle Park’s marine layer. The southpaw sits at +165 to record the win (second-best on the early slate) and carries a 5.5 K prop. Raz argues the pure strikeout ceiling offsets the risk of a crooked inning, making Rodriguez a strong large-field tournament differentiator over the more popular Luis Castillo.

Scott Reichel faded Eduardo Rodriguez by betting over 2.5 earned runs at even money. Reichel pointed out that E-Rod has coughed up at least three earned in four consecutive outings and owns a road ERA north of 7.00 since joining Arizona. The south-paw’s home-run rate has spiked, and opponents have hammered his four-seamer ( .627 SLG this season ). San Francisco ranks 10th in MLB in runs per game and has plated six-plus in three of its last four at Oracle Park. With Arizona’s bullpen over-worked last night but getting a day off Thursday, Reichel expects manager Torey Lovullo to leave Rodriguez out there long enough to wear the damage. All signs point to another rough night, making the over 2.5 ER a plus-EV fade.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Eduardo Rodriguez as a strikeout-prop smash against San Francisco. The Giants have the 6th-highest K-rate versus left-handed pitching over the last three weeks (25.2%). Rodriguez has punched out 48 batters in 40.2 innings and owns a massive 33.7% strikeout rate on the road compared with 16.7% at home. Although his game-to-game Ks have been volatile (3,10, and 1 the past three starts), the matchup and park upgrade at Oracle set the stage for the upper range outcome. The tout recommended looking at an alt-ladder — standard line at 6+ Ks with sprinkle on 8+ — noting that San Francisco’s projected lineup could feature six left-handed hitters, against whom Rodriguez carries a slightly higher strikeout percentage.

Razzle is keeping Eduardo Rodriguez in his pool for tournaments. Although E-Rod just surrendered three homers to the Mets, he has already logged 9-K and 12-K gems in 2025. His 5.5 K-prop is one of only five that high on the slate, and the Phillies can run hot-and-cold offensively. Razzle acknowledged the home-run risk but feels Rodriguez’s 30-DK-point ceiling is worth exposure in multi-entry builds.

Joe Pisapia urged listeners to scoop up Eduardo Rodriguez immediately after the lefty was tagged for eight earned by the Mets. Despite the blow-up, Rodriguez owns underlying numbers that scream positive regression: xERA, FIP, and xFIP are all lower than his surface ERA, his strikeout rate has spiked, and Statcast shows healthier whiff rates on every pitch. Pisapia emphasized that Citi Field’s loaded lineup is an outlier matchup and that Rodriguez’s fastball and sinker are posting 30 % K-rates while sliders and changeups lag, creating a quirky but fixable pitch-split profile. The poor box score should make him cheaper in trade talks or even available on waivers, making now the ideal window to pounce before the correction comes.

Brad Francis bet Eduardo Rodriguez under 5.5 strikeouts at –135 (available as low as –125 elsewhere). He flatly stated, “He ain’t throwing six K’s—not against the Mets on the road.” Brad expects New York’s contact-oriented lineup and the unfamiliar venue to cap Rodriguez’s punch-out ceiling, making the juice worth the squeeze on the under.

Chris Welsh smashed Eduardo Rodriguez’s strikeout over (5.5) at +110, noting the lefty has punched out 21 batters over his last 12 innings and now faces a Rays lineup striking out 25% of the time versus southpaws. Rodriguez’s whiff rate on the changeup jumped to 37% in that span, while Tampa ranks bottom‑five in OPS against the pitch type. Welsh projected 6‑8 Ks and said he would play the ladder up to 7+ (+210) for a sprinkle.

Francis played under 5.5 strikeouts on Eduardo Rodriguez, noting the left‑hander has stayed below that number in three of his last five starts. Tampa Bay’s projected lineup owns the league’s second‑lowest K‑rate versus southpaws (17.9%), and Rodriguez’s swinging‑strike percentage has dipped to 9.6% across his previous two outings. Brad expects Arizona to manage his workload again after he threw just 83 pitches last start, limiting the ceiling for punch‑outs.

JT recommends fading Eduardo Rodriguez on today's four-game MLB slate, citing extremely high ownership (projected around 50%) and questioning the likelihood of Rodriguez having a successful outing relative to his ownership percentage. JT believes the probability that Rodriguez has a subpar game is higher than the field anticipates, thus making Miami Marlins bats an attractive leverage play against the chalk.

Data Skrive provided betting analysis pointing towards Eduardo Rodriguez exceeding his 5.5 strikeout prop against the Marlins on April 17. Rodriguez has been averaging 6.7 strikeouts per game in his three appearances this season, well above the current prop number. With attractive odds of +106, this represents quality betting value considering Miami's elevated strikeout rates against left-handed pitching.

Todd Zola recommends streaming Eduardo Rodriguez, stating that despite Rodriguez's current 4.86 ERA, his underlying numbers point to far better results ahead. Rodriguez boasts a 2.74 xFIP and a 3.08 SIERA, both significantly better than his surface statistics indicate. Additionally, Rodriguez has the fourth highest strikeout rate among pitchers with at least 15 innings pitched. His Thursday matchup against a Miami Marlins offense with the MLB's ninth highest strikeout rate presents ideal streaming potential.

Dylan Rockford advises betting Eduardo Rodriguez under 16.5 outs at even money in his start against Milwaukee. Rodriguez has surpassed this line only once in his previous 10 games, struggling with efficiency and consistency. Rockford cites Rodriguez's severe regression since returning from injury, posting an ERA over 5 with Arizona. He emphasizes Rodriguez's vulnerability to fly balls, lack of strikeout ability, and Milwaukee's improving performance against left-handed pitching recently. Between Rodriguez's 6.72 ERA, high fly ball rates, and Milwaukee's revitalized lineup, Rockford confidently recommends fading E-Rod on the pitching outs prop.

Dylan Rockford strongly suggested betting the over 8.5 runs in Brewers vs Diamondbacks, specifically citing Arizona starter Eduardo Rodriguez as a major fade candidate. He's noted Rodriguez consistently yields at least three to four runs per start while struggling mightily with control, regularly issuing walks and home runs. Coupled with Milwaukee's impressive recent offensive surge (averaging 8.4 runs per game across their last five), Rockford sees clear opportunity in hammering the run total. He expects Rodriguez's persistent inefficiency to provide ample scoring, making this over wager exceptionally appealing despite slight juice (-122).

JD Bets recommended betting Eduardo Rodriguez over 4.5 hits allowed against the Cubs. Rodriguez consistently allowed numerous hits last season, surrendering at least four in every single start, averaging 5.6 per game. Additionally, JD outlined that the Cubs generally hit left-handed pitching well, further strengthening confidence in this particular prop play.