Kenny G leaned toward backing the Miami Marlins at -140 against the Cardinals, citing Edward Cabrera's bounce-back spot and the Cardinals' fading offense. Cabrera sits at 6–6 with a 3.34 ERA, logged eight innings of one-run ball against Atlanta two starts ago, and limited St. Louis to one earned over six frames on July 28. The Redbirds have fallen from a top-five attack to just 16th in runs and 14th in average, and are 26-34 on the road. While Kenny respects St. Louis’ 3.63 bullpen ERA, he believes Cabrera’s ceiling combined with Miami’s 28-31 home mark gives the Fish the edge. He acknowledged the Marlins’ shaky 4.16 bullpen ERA keeps this from being an official play, yet still prefers Miami on the moneyline.

Eric Lindquist likes Edward Cabrera over 5.5 strikeouts against St. Louis. He highlighted Brendan Donovan’s IL stint as a blow to a contact-oriented Cardinals lineup and noted Cabrera cruised past the number the night before, racking up six Ks in just four innings. With rookie Michael McGreevy slated for the Cards and Miami content to let Cabrera work deep, Lindquist expects another whiff-heavy outing at a beatable line.

Kenny G recommended laying the short -115 price with Miami because Edward Cabrera is in mid-season form while Atlanta’s entire pitching infrastructure is leaking oil. Cabrera has allowed just four earned runs across his last three starts (Marlins 2-1 in that span) and hasn’t yet faced Atlanta, giving the righty a first-look advantage. Bryce Elder counters with a 6.03 ERA, recently crushed by Texas and previously torched by these Marlins in Miami. Kenny highlighted that the Braves bullpen is as bad as advertised (over 5.00 ERA) and the lineup is punching well below its weight, sitting 25th in runs and 21st in slugging despite an eight-run outburst last night. Miami’s offense is hardly elite but still outranks Atlanta in average and on-base percentage, and the Fish own a respectable 28-27 road record. With the better current form on the mound and the lesser of two bullpen evils, Kenny expects Cabrera to ‘go out and dominate’ and the Marlins to notch the win.

Just A Bet Outside said to play Miami on the first-five-innings moneyline at –120 because Edward Cabrera has been lights-out while Bryce Elder has been batting-practice. Cabrera owns a 2.89 ERA in June and a 2.43 ERA in July, then opened August by limiting the Yankees to one run on two hits with seven Ks. He has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 14 of his last 15 starts, holding opponents below a .215 average during that stretch. Elder, meanwhile, carried an 8.25 ERA in June and 7.91 in July and has surrendered three-plus earned runs in seven of his last ten turns. Right-handed hitters are teeing off at a .308 clip and he has already given up 17 homers. Miami ranks top-five in road scoring and hung six more runs on Atlanta yesterday, whereas the depleted Braves offense remains below league average without Ronald Acuna Jr. or Austin Riley. Both bullpens are overworked, so the tout isolates the clear starting-pitching edge and takes the Fish for the first five, grading it a half-unit wager that refunds on a tie.

Drew Martin said to bet the Miami Marlins moneyline behind Edward Cabrera, noting the 27-year-old has fired consecutive six-inning, one-run outings while touching the upper-90s. Cabrera's form gives Miami a clear starting-pitching edge over Luis Gil, who is making his first big-league start of 2025 after a 60-day IL stint and never topped four frames in four rehab turns between AA Somerset and AAA Scranton. Martin added that, despite an expected Yankee-fan takeover in South Florida, the Marlins have been playing better since the deadline and should be attractively priced at home.

MadnessDFS labeled Edward Cabrera OVER 4.5 strikeouts his favorite board play. The premium Top Props model shows a 53.8% hit rate, and Cabrera has cleared this number in 11 consecutive outings and in 80% of his past 15. Despite St. Louis ranking just 26th in K-rate (20.2%), Cabrera’s own 24.9% strikeout clip supplies plenty of upside. Books agree—DraftKings has the over juiced to –135, but PrizePicks users don’t pay that vig. With the trade deadline looming and potential lineup shifts for the Cardinals, MadnessDFS sees little downside in riding Cabrera’s hot strikeout form one more time.

Jovan Burts advised taking the Miami Marlins -0.5 run line for the first five innings at +120 in their July 28, 2025 matchup with St. Louis. Burts expects a quality start from Edward Cabrera, citing Cabrera’s recent form and the Marlins’ 7-3 record over their last 10 games. On the other side, Cards starter Andre Palante has surrendered 17 runs across his previous three outings (5, 5, and 7 earned runs), prompting Burts to label him a fade candidate. With the Marlins’ offense drawing a soft matchup and Cabrera offering a clear pitching edge, Burts sees plus-money value in backing Miami to lead after five frames.

Eric Lindquist said he will immediately hammer Edward Cabrera strike-out overs the moment Brendan Donovan is shipped out of St. Louis. Donovan’s 13 % K-rate is the lowest on the Cardinals, and Lindquist expects Garrett Hampson (30 % K-rate) or another whiff-happy replacement to slide in at second base if a deadline deal goes through. He noted that books tend to lag on roster news, so bettors who ‘sniper’ Cabrera’s prop before lines refresh should wind up with positive-EV numbers and can even buy back later to middle once the market adjusts.

Bill Harrelson backed Edward Cabrera to clear 4.5 strikeouts Tuesday against the Padres. Harrelson noted Cabrera has topped this number in 10 straight starts and in 16 of his last 20, including six punch-outs versus Baltimore in his most recent outing. On the season Cabrera has cashed the over in 81% of his 16 appearances, a dramatic jump from last year’s 55% hit rate. He averages five innings and six strikeouts during the current streak, and Statcast shows his major pitch metrics sitting in the league’s upper percentiles. Market support is strong as both Fliff and Sleeper have posted a higher K line than PrizePicks/Underdog. Despite recording only four Ks in his lone 2024 meeting with San Diego, Harrelson trusts Cabrera’s improved form and expects him to stay hot.

Brad PickDawgz played Edward Cabrera over 4.5 strikeouts against San Diego, noting the right-hander has eclipsed this number in ten straight starts. Calling Cabrera ‘a dog’ who isn’t getting enough attention, Brad expects at least five punch-outs, making the over his preferred side despite the transcript’s brief slip saying ‘under’.

Gary Sheffield Jr labeled Edward Cabrera a high-ceiling gamble for contenders, specifically noting that the Yankees are in the mix and could let pitching coach Matt Blake "fix this sinker-slider-changeup guy." Sheffield dismissed the Marlins’ track record of mishandling young arms and argued that Cabrera’s raw stuff—upper-90s sinker, wipeout slider, and a Bugs Bunny change—could flourish in New York’s data-driven development system. Season-long managers in deeper leagues were encouraged to stash Cabrera now, betting on a post-deadline skill unlock and better win potential outside Miami.

As a bonus play, Harrelson likes Edward Cabrera UNDER 2.5 earned runs. The right-hander has stayed below this number in 9 of his last 10 and 15 of his last 20 starts (75%). He has cashed the prop in 11 of 15 appearances this season (73%) and grades out roughly in the 65th percentile across key pitching metrics. The Orioles’ offense ranks slightly below league average against righties, giving Cabrera a workable matchup. While Cabrera did allow three runs in his lone 2024 meeting with Baltimore, the wider trend supports the under, making it a strong alternative for viewers uneasy about fading Acuna.

Lonte Smith advised grabbing Miami at +115 and sprinkling the Marlins’ team-total over against Joe Ryan. Edward Cabrera has surrendered two or fewer runs in six consecutive outings (1.80 ERA) while holding opponents to fewer than five hits in his last three. Miami’s bats are matching his form: over the last ten, the Fish are hitting .270, producing roughly six runs per nine, and have scored 5-plus in seven of those games while ripping off an 8-2 record (including a current seven-game win streak). Smith contrasted that with a Twins club that is 3-7 in its last ten and just 18-26 on the road. Even though Ryan owns a sharp 2.86 ERA overall, Smith noted he is merely “okay” away from Target Field and cannot count on consistent run support from an erratic Minnesota lineup. With Cabrera’s walk prop still live (29 free passes on the year) but the Marlins trending up everywhere else, Smith likes Miami outright and expects their offense to clear its team total.

Lonte Smith is grabbing Miami on the first-five moneyline, projecting a 1-0 or 2-1 Marlins lead before the pens get involved. Edward Cabrera has allowed two or fewer earned in four straight and sports a 2.60 ERA at home, flashing swing-and-miss stuff with 5 K’s in his first seven batters last time out before leaving with a minor ankle tweak. Cabrera’s chief issue—efficiency—actually works for the wager because it keeps the shaky Miami bullpen off the field. Cristopher Sanchez is steady (two runs or fewer in six of seven road starts), so Smith also leans first-five under, but Miami’s improved at-bat quality (they just took a game off Philadelphia) gives him confidence in a small underdog price. He refuses to touch the full-game because Philly’s bullpen is far superior.

Drew Martin is also betting Edward Cabrera’s strikeout prop to the over despite backing the Phillies to win. Cabrera has recorded 25 Ks over his last four starts and regularly touches the upper-90s. Martin noted that the Phillies can be overly aggressive, making six or more strikeouts in roughly five innings a realistic projection. He will monitor the posted number but expects value on the over.

Drew Martin wants the Marlins as road dogs because Edward Cabrera’s stuff is trending up while Kyle Hendricks appears cooked. Cabrera has pushed his fastball back to 98-99 mph and posted three straight strong outings despite the surface-level 4.91 ERA. Hendricks, meanwhile, sports a 5-plus ERA and FIP, only 28 strikeouts against 16 walks in 47 innings, and is living at 86-87 mph. Martin called the 35-year-old Dartmouth product a ‘swan-song’ fade and expects Miami to be listed at a tempting plus price. Listing Cabrera and fading Hendricks’ declining skills makes the Fish the play.

Martin recommended a first-five-innings wager on the underdog Marlins with Edward Cabrera listed. He noted the unusual "back-to-back" dynamic: Cubs starter Ben Brown just faced Miami in Wrigley last week, giving the Marlins hitters an edge in familiarity, while Cabrera did not face Chicago in that series. Cabrera’s velocity has ticked up after a delayed start due to injury, and his last two outings have been his sharpest—allowing two earned runs and one earned run respectively. Brown, a former 33rd-round pick, carries a 4.75 ERA and could struggle when the same lineup sees him twice in quick succession. Although Miami is only 18-27 and the bullpen mismatch favors Chicago, Martin wants to isolate the starting-pitcher edge and grab a juicy plus-price in the first five innings before the Marlins’ shaky relief corps appears.

Dylan Rockford laid out a full-throated case for attacking the alternate run line and grabbed Dodgers –2.5 at +114. He called Edward Cabrera “a complete fade” because the right-hander cannot control the running game (multiple steals allowed in every start), hands out free passes (2-plus walks in all four outings) and now makes his first road appearance of the season. The matchup gets even uglier in Dodger Stadium where Los Angeles has scored 6-plus runs in back-to-back games and owns a .355 wOBA at home. Rockford expects Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani to be active on the basepaths, further punishing Cabrera’s slow delivery. He is not worried about Dustin May, noting the Dodgers have won both of May’s home starts by multiple runs while he has surrendered just one earned run over 11 Dodger-Stadium innings. With Miami’s offense ranking bottom-five in road OPS and a taxed Marlins bullpen behind Cabrera, Rockford labeled the plus-money –2.5 his favorite underdog play of the slate.

Eric Lindquist said Edward Cabrera’s high‑end strikeout ceiling makes his alt‑over ladders attractive against Cincinnati. Cabrera’s rebuilt mix has produced whiffs while cutting hard contact, and Lindquist noted the Reds just fanned double‑digit times versus Max Meyer the night before. Because Cabrera is a boom‑bust arm who often either spikes 7–9 Ks or melts down, Lindquist suggested a smaller, 0.25‑unit stab at 8‑ or 9‑plus strikeouts instead of the standard line, anticipating books will shade his base prop upward after Cincinnati’s most recent whiff fest.

Young likes Edward Cabrera to go over 4.5 strike‑outs, adding he would play 3.5 if alternate markets are available. Cabrera has hit this mark in every appearance so far (100 % clip), including a recent 11‑strike‑out outing in just 6 ⅔ innings. The matchup‑independent swing‑and‑miss stuff—powered by a 96 mph fastball and upper‑80s change‑up—makes the low number attractive even if Cabrera does not pitch deep into the game.

DraftCheat likes Edward Cabrera as a contrarian pitching option. Despite Cabrera facing a strong Arizona Diamondbacks lineup, his excellent pure pitching talent and favorable pitchers' park in Miami provide upside. Ownership for Cabrera should be modest (15-20%), presenting leverage against the field which likely features heavy ownership on both Eduardo Rodriguez and the Diamondbacks' bats.

Dylan Rockford identified value on the Marlins at +135 on the moneyline, or even +1.5 at -128 run line for their matchup against Arizona. Dylan expressed strong skepticism toward backing Eduardo Rodriguez at the steep favorite price, citing Rodriguez's poor form thus far, walking batters at a high rate, and allowing multiple runs consistently. Alternatively, Dylan noted Miami's improved hitting against left-handed pitching (.281 batting average) and Cabrera's decent first start where his effort was undermined by bullpen struggles rather than his own performance. Dylan sees this as a good spot to back a home dog.

Cash Out Sports Picks cautioned against trusting Edward Cabrera against Arizona, citing his ongoing command issues. Cabrera is making just his second start of 2025 after showing familiar walk problems in his first appearance (three walks given). Last season, he walked 50 batters in just 96.1 innings pitched. Arizona's lineup is powerful this season, ranking second in MLB with a .450 slugging percentage and notably dangerous with runners in scoring position (.757 OPS). Given Arizona's recent momentum (winning four of last five games versus Miami), these control issues likely lead to scoring opportunities and runs against Cabrera.

Sean Zerillo advised taking the Marlins' moneyline if Edward Cabrera is confirmed as the starter against the Nationals. Zerillo prefers Cabrera (100 Stuff+ rating) despite acknowledging his serious control concerns and frequent struggles with walks. However, Cabrera recently displayed improved command, producing two dominant rehab starts with nine strikeouts and zero walks. Zerillo noted that Mitch Parker, the Nationals' pitcher, has significantly worse Stuff+ (79) although better control. Given these conditions, Zerillo believes betting Miami at even money or better is valuable, projecting fair odds near -120. Both bullpens involved are below average, but Zerillo slightly edges Miami as the better overall team in this matchup.