Eric Lindquist leaned to the UNDER on Erick Fedde’s 3.5-strikeout prop against Boston. Fedde owns a shallow 14.4% K-rate and an inflated .282 expected batting average, indicators Lindquist says scream ‘pitch-to-contact’. Boston’s projected lineup is left-hand heavy, giving the Red Sox platoon advantage against Fedde’s shaky splits and further limiting strikeout upside. Even though 3.5 looks low at first glance, Lindquist believes Fedde’s profile and the matchup justify fading the over, especially at standard juice.

Shubham Soni backed Erick Fedde to clear 3.5 strikeouts at -150. Soni noted Fedde’s quietly solid 2025—3-3 record, 3.77 ERA, 1.27 WHIP through 57.1 IP—and pointed out that his 34 total Ks (5.3 K/9) look pedestrian only because he pitches to contact. Against Washington’s bottom-of-the-order hitters, Fedde’s broad pitch mix and steady early-game command give him multiple paths to four punch-outs. The modest line plus a favorable matchup make this a value play despite Fedde’s low season-long K rate.

Brad Francis took Erick Fedde under 4.5 strikeouts, saying the number feels inflated against a contact-heavy Phillies lineup. He believes Philadelphia’s hitters will force Fedde into pitch-to-contact mode and prevent him from racking up punch-outs, making the under worth a wager.

JD Bets said to smash Erick Fedde’s earned-runs prop at over 2.5 (-133) in Saturday’s start against the Mets. He highlighted several ugly data points: every projected New York starter owns at least a .254 average off Fedde with Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso both sitting at .333 and multiple Mets already taking him deep. Fedde’s wobbly control—2.7 walks per start on a 2.5 line—and a recent outing in which Milwaukee tagged him for 10 hits underscore how often he lets traffic on the bases snowball. Rather than chase volatile walk or hit props, JD wants the simpler path: New York hangs three runs on Fedde within the first five innings, eliminating bullpen variance entirely. In his words, “y’all just do what you normally do against Fetty.”

Greg Peterson is willing to lay up to –117 on the Cardinals and likes the Under 8 when Erick Fedde faces Jose Quintana. Since returning from the KBO, Fedde’s Busch Stadium ERA is more than 1.5 runs better than his road mark, and Peterson trusts his ground-ball profile at home. Both starters are due for some ERA give-back—they sit at just 4.3 K/9—but Peterson prefers St. Louis’ on-base machines Brendan Donovan (.400 OBP) and Lars Nootbaar (.400 OBP) plus a still-patient Nolan Arenado (.360 OBP) against a Brewer lineup that has been feast-or-famine outside Bryce Turang and William Contreras. Christian Yelich’s modest .333 OBP and rookie Jackson Chourio’s chase-heavy approach are red flags. He expects both shaky bullpens (bottom-5 ERA) to stabilize slightly; Ryan Helsley gives the Cards a late-inning edge. With his model showing 8.4, Peterson leans under the flat 8 and sees value in St. Louis around –115.

Shepardson backed the Over 2.5 Walks Allowed for Erick Fedde on Underdog (1.18x), noting the right‑hander’s control has vanished: 11 walks in 21 innings (13.3 BB/9) and at least three free passes in each of his last three starts (3, 4, 4). Facing a patient Braves lineup and with an 8.5‑run total in play, Shepardson expects Fedde’s shaky command to persist.

Daniel Kohn highlighted Erick Fedde's historical success against Pittsburgh as an encouraging angle despite his recent struggles. Fedde boasts a career ERA of 2.81 and a 1-0 record over three starts against the Pirates. Although he endured a rough recent outing in a 13-9 loss at Boston, Fedde's previous strong start this season—six innings of one-run ball against Minnesota—combined with his proven track record of solid performances versus Pittsburgh, provides a promising rationale to back the Cardinals at their favorable betting odds (-118).

Lonte Smith backs Erick Fedde and the Cardinals as home underdogs at plus money against the Twins. Fedde has historically dominated Minnesota, facing them twice last season and allowing only 6 combined hits and 2 runs while striking out an impressive 18 batters. Given the relatively even pitching matchup between Fedde and Joe Ryan, Lonte views home underdog pricing as clear value, expecting Fedde to continue his past success and even suggests betting Fedde's strikeout prop and win prop.