Scott Reichel sees clear value backing Houston Astros at a short price (-120) against the Cardinals due to Framber Valdez's early-season strong form. Valdez has delivered two scoreless outings, his only poor start (5 runs) coming against the Giants. Conversely, Sonny Gray (4.50 ERA), despite the Cardinals winning all three of his starts, has been inconsistent—allowing five runs to the Angels in a single outing. Both teams have middling early-season records, but Reichel firmly believes Valdez holds a decisive pitching advantage in this matchup, enough to justify the bet on Houston at this price.

Cash Out Sports Picks anticipated a pitching duel between Framber Valdez of the Astros and Sonny Gray of the Cardinals, advising bettors to play the Under total. Both pitchers were sharp in recent starts, and the trend data supports going Under: Houston has been Under in six of nine non-divisional games, and St. Louis's last four games have also hit Under totals. Both bullpens have excelled, notably the Cardinals' relievers allowing only 0.16 HR per nine innings and Houston's bullpen similarly strong with 0.66 HR per nine innings. Expect lower-scoring gameplay given the pitching matchup, recent tendencies towards lower scoring, and both teams' bullpen reliability.

DataSkrive is pessimistic about Framber Valdez's chances to perform well against the Mariners, citing two shaky starts to open the 2025 season. Valdez holds a 3.75 ERA but notably struggled in his latest outing, conceding five runs in five innings against the Giants. Furthermore, Seattle's lineup is led by hot bats like Jorge Polanco (.417 average, .667 slugging percentage) and Dylan Moore (.381 average, team-high .667 slugging). Facing a lineup that hits left-handers hard alongside his recent struggles contributes to a pessimistic forecast for Valdez's performance, making him a candidate for fade in fantasy and betting markets.

JD Bets believes San Francisco's proficiency against lefties presents a good betting spot for taking Framber Valdez over 4.5 hits allowed. He points out last season's single matchup where Valdez gave up eight hits against the Giants and notes their historically strong performance versus left-handed pitching. Given Valdez's average of 5.07 hits allowed per game and the Giants' favorable splits, JD confidently recommends betting the over on Valdez's hits allowed prop at 4.5 as a logical wager.

Jimmy Adams strongly recommended betting the Astros today against the Giants due to their ace Framber Valdez, who is coming off seven shutout innings against the improved Mets lineup featuring Juan Soto. Valdez excels at generating ground balls, ranking in the 99th percentile in ground ball percentage, 97th percentile in pitching run value, and boasting outstanding breaking ball run values. Adams believes Valdez won't require much run support and trusts the Astros bullpen to close out the game. Adams suggested three betting approaches: laying the money line, taking the Astros on the run line (at plus money), or betting them on the first-half run line, indicating he's very confident Houston will win and avoid a sweep.

Millz Young supports taking Framber Valdez' strikeouts, emphasizing Valdez's ability to regularly pitch deep into games—often reaching the seventh inning or beyond. Due to this extended workload and consistent strikeout ability, Valdez offers strong value on his strikeout prop tonight.

Bettor Mark identified a unique betting angle, suggesting to target Houston Astros to win without needing to bat in the ninth inning against the Giants. He cited Astros ace Framber Valdez as the team's clear pitching bright spot despite their sluggish 2-3 start offensively. Although Mark remains hesitant about Houston's lineup struggles early in the season, he pointed out significant pricing issues with the standard money line (-160 being excessively high). Instead, he advised creatively approaching the game via a DraftKings option where the Astros win without batting in the ninth inning, reducing risk while leveraging Valdez's advantageous pitching matchup.

Peter Appel favors Astros starter Framber Valdez, highlighting his historical effectiveness early in the season, including a 2.60 ERA in early 2024 and 2.54 ERA in early 2023. Valdez has particularly excelled against the current Mets roster, limiting them to a .238 batting average, a poor .281 xwOBA, and inducing a high 25.6% strikeout rate with ground balls dominating at a mere 1.7 degree average launch angle. Injuries weakening the Mets lineup, specifically Jeff McNeil (97 wRC+) and Francisco Alvarez (102 wRC+) heading to the IL, further elevate his projected success early in the season.

Adam Burke is eyeing the hits allowed prop (over 4.5 hits) for Astros pitcher Framber Valdez due to downgraded infield defense behind Valdez. He highlights that Alex Bregman's absence and Isaac Paredes' weaker defense at 3B, combined with declining defensive numbers for SS Jeremy Pena and sub-average defense at second base, significantly weaken the team's ability to support Valdez's ground-ball reliant approach. Burke notes the Mets’ potent lineup versus lefties, historically top five in MLB, and expects the weakened defensive unit will allow increased hit opportunities, making this prop attractive.