Scott Reichel fired on Over 9 because a 10-mph breeze to straightaway center and Frankie Montas’ recent blow-ups create ideal run-scoring conditions. Montas has surrendered 11 runs in 9 innings over his last two outings and sports a 6.15 xERA that suggests worse days ahead. Although Carlos Rodon’s surface numbers are strong, Reichel noted his strikeout rate has dropped four straight starts, making him more homer-prone in a park where the ball will carry. With both bullpens ranking bottom-10 in ERA since mid-June, Reichel projects a 6-5 type game and will take any total of 9.5 or lower.

Kenny G recommended the under 9.5 in Sunday’s Mets–Pirates matchup. He trusts Frankie Montas, who fired five scoreless frames with seven punch-outs in his season debut against Atlanta, to keep Pittsburgh in check. Opposing rookie Mike Burrows has flashed upside and is backed by a Pirates bullpen that has quietly improved to a 3.80 ERA, though several key arms may be unavailable after heavy usage Saturday. New York’s lineup has scored just three total runs in the first two games of the set and is 24-16-1 to the under on the road. Pittsburgh, despite consecutive nine-run outbursts, still ranks near the bottom of the league and plays in pitcher-friendly PNC Park. With both clubs trending to the under and a lofty 9.5 posted, Kenny expects runs to be at a premium.

Lonte Smith backed the Mets as +125 home underdogs even with Spencer Strider on the bump for Atlanta. Smith framed it as a classic buy-low; the Braves have won seven of the last ten and just out-scored New York 17-5 in a recent three-game sweep, so he expects the market to be inflated toward Atlanta. He thinks the Mets’ offense will bounce back in familiar Citi Field confines and noted that Strider, while trending up, is still just two starts removed from his IL stint. Smith trusts a healthier Montas to keep New York in striking distance and believes the psychological edge of wanting pay-back for that embarrassing road sweep matters in a division rivalry.