Kenny G laid the steep -235 with Milwaukee, banking on Freddy Peralta’s current heater to overwhelm Washington. Peralta is 10-4 with a 2.74 ERA and is coming off a six-inning shutout of the Dodgers (7 K, 1 BB). The Brewers are undefeated in his last five starts, during which he has not surrendered more than three earned runs. On the other side, Jake Irvin’s recent log reads ugly—4 ER vs St. Louis, 3 ER vs Detroit, and a blow-up against the Angels—while Milwaukee catches a Nationals bullpen that owns an MLB-worst 5.80 ERA. Washington’s offense is merely mid-pack (16th runs, 20th OBP, 19th SLG) and just 20-29 on the road with a 25-21-3 over record, numbers Kenny interprets as mostly noise against an in-form ace. Milwaukee’s pen (4.03 ERA) is nothing special, but it is still markedly better than Washington’s disaster unit, and the Brew Crew are 32-17 at home. Kenny called this a potential “lock of the day,” insisting Peralta’s dominance and the Nationals’ relief woes more than offset the juicy price.

Reichel’s dog of the day is Milwaukee at +122. He noted the Dodgers’ recent inconsistency and mediocre 20-21 road record, suggesting the club could be flat after a grinding series in Houston. Freddy Peralta has allowed two runs or fewer in three straight outings and owns a 2.66 ERA at American Family Field, giving the Brewers a legitimate pitching edge over a Los Angeles bullpen game. Milwaukee’s offense has produced just enough at home (4.3 runs per game) to support Peralta, and Reichel trusts a top-five bullpen to protect any late lead. He projects a tight 4-3 Brewers victory and sees value any time Peralta is plus-money in his own ballpark.

Lindquist is leaning under 5.5 strikeouts for Freddy Peralta in the night game at Citi Field. He anticipates the Mets will rest high-K hitters like Brett Baty in one half of the twin bill, while contact-oriented bats such as Mark Vientos will almost certainly start. Peralta’s swinging-strike rate has ticked down recently and public perception still bakes in his peak whiff numbers, which Lindquist believes inflates the line. With the Mets likely fielding a lower-strikeout lineup and Peralta pitching on short prep for the double-header, Lindquist prefers fading the strikeout total rather than chasing it up the ladder.

Drew Martin backed the Brewers at +112, citing opposite trajectories for the clubs and a strong pitching edge. Milwaukee has ripped off an 8-2 run and now sits 10 games over .500, while New York is 3-13 over its last 16 contests and managed only four total runs during a weekend sweep by Pittsburgh. Martin highlighted Clay Holmes’ move from the bullpen to the rotation as a problem for the Mets – Holmes has issued 10 walks across his last two starts. By contrast, Freddy Peralta owns a sub-3.00 ERA with 98 strikeouts and has won three straight outings. Milwaukee’s lineup grades top-10 over the past week, giving Martin confidence the Brewers can cash as road underdogs.

Lonte Smith echoed Bamford’s confidence, betting both the Brewers run line and their team total OVER against Andrew Heaney. He pointed out that Peralta has yielded one earned run or fewer in six of his seven home starts and that Milwaukee’s offense has erupted for 8+ runs in four straight contests. By contrast, Heaney has surrendered 17 earned runs and six homers in his last four road appearances, and his fluctuating hard-hit rate suggests more pain is coming. Smith acknowledged Pittsburgh took two of three from Milwaukee last month, but all were one-run games and the Brewers lineup is far hotter now. He expects another lopsided affair, projecting Milwaukee’s team total at 5.5 runs.

Malcom Bamford laid the ‑1.5 with Milwaukee, underscoring how dominant the Brewers have been while Freddy Peralta is on the hill at American Family Field. Milwaukee is 18-7 since May 25 (best record in baseball) and averaging seven runs per game over its last nine. Peralta’s home splits mirror his overall resurgence, and he faces a Pirates offense that is merely league-average and forced to support Andrew Heaney’s 4.85 road ERA. Bamford sees no path for Pittsburgh to keep up offensively and projected Milwaukee to win something like 6–2, making the run line the cleaner play than the prohibitive money line.

Mills Young backed Freddy Peralta to clear 6.0 strikeouts versus the Reds. Peralta has hit that mark in six of nine starts despite little national buzz. Cincinnati strikes out at a 26 % clip, and Young thinks the right-hander’s 13.4% swinging-strike rate will play up in Great American Ball Park, projecting 7-8 Ks.

Razzle will also roster some Freddy Peralta on the opposite side of Greene. Peralta’s 5.5 K prop leans to the over and his 31% K rate away from Milwaukee underscores the upside, but the right-hander is issuing 5.6 walks per nine on the road. Razzle cautioned that free passes in Great American Ball Park can snowball quickly, yet Peralta’s ceiling performances (three games of 30+ DK points this year) make him a perfect low-owned pivot in multi-entry builds.

Romanelli is backing Milwaukee because Freddy Peralta has owned the current Reds roster: 75 plate appearances have produced a .176 expected batting average, .242 xwOBA and a massive 37% strikeout rate with minimal walks. Hunter Greene’s own numbers versus Milwaukee are decent but include a 15% walk rate, and since returning from injury he has only fanned five hitters in nine innings and issued three walks, with the Reds losing both games. With the Brewers playing their best baseball of the season and possessing the sharper starter, Romanelli likes Milwaukee on the moneyline.

Martin grabbed Milwaukee at +105, arguing that the market is over-valuing Hunter Greene’s 100-mph fastball. He reminded listeners that Greene surrendered 7 runs and 2 homers to this same Brewer lineup in Cincinnati last season, and now meets a group riding a seven-game winning streak after sweeping the Phillies and Red Sox and piling up 22 runs over the weekend. On the mound, Peralta sports a 2.77 ERA with 66 strikeouts, giving Milwaukee the better current form. Add in Cincinnati’s merely average bullpen and hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, and Martin felt the plus-money made the Brewers the "only side".

Drew Martin laid -150 on Milwaukee’s first-five line with Freddy Peralta facing Boston, noting the Brewers are 16-10 at home and Peralta has surrendered just one earned run in each of his last two starts. The 28-year-old Dominican right-hander owns a 60/23 K/BB and only 44 hits allowed in 60+ innings, with a slight velocity bump supporting his 2025 surge. Martin is simultaneously fading Brayan Bello, who has coughed up nine earned runs in his last eight innings and carries a shaky 27/20 K/BB across 35 frames. By shortening the wager to five innings, Martin avoids Milwaukee’s suspect bullpen and trusts Peralta to outduel a cold Bello before the lineups and pens decide things late. Play: Brewers 1H ML -150.

Brad Francis took Freddy Peralta under 6.5 strikeouts. He admitted his recent pitcher-prop run has cooled but feels Peralta will not reach seven punch-outs against a Minnesota lineup that has been making consistent contact throughout its 13-game winning streak. Francis stressed that the Twins’ current approach—shortening swings and forcing long at-bats—sets up poorly for Peralta’s high-velocity but occasionally erratic arsenal, projecting fewer whiffs than usual.

Chris Morgan said Freddy Peralta is worth the $9.7k spend on FanDuel because he owns a 2.66 ERA and a 9.24 K/9 through nine starts and gets a Minnesota lineup that is red-hot but still only league-average in overall production. Morgan noted the Twins are ‘not the 1927 Yankees’ and believes Peralta’s strikeout ceiling can pay off even if the volatile Milwaukee offense fails to secure the win bonus.

Chris Morgan slotted Freddy Peralta in as his top-priced arm on Sunday’s FanDuel slate, noting that Minnesota’s lineup remains "middling" despite its recent hot streak. Peralta owns a sparkling 2.66 ERA through nine starts and is still striking out hitters at a 9.24 K/9 clip—a figure Morgan points out is actually low compared to the right-hander’s career norms. With the Twins nowhere near the 1927 Yankees offensively and Peralta’s swing-and-miss stuff fully intact, Morgan expects plenty of DFS scoring even if a win bonus isn’t guaranteed.

Guy Boston recommended betting Freddy Peralta under 4.5 hits allowed at ‑135 on DraftKings. Peralta has stayed below this number in 6 of 8 starts (75%) while surrendering only four hits per outing. The right-hander also hit the under 64% of the time a year ago and limited Cleveland to exactly four knocks in their lone 2024 meeting. Underlying metrics back the play: Peralta sits in the 88th percentile for opponent batting average (.196) and owns a 2.18 ERA, 80th-percentile BABIP suppression, 79th-percentile strikeout rate, and 90th-percentile hard-hit avoidance. Cleveland’s offense is a plus matchup, ranking 23rd in average (.239) versus righties with bottom-10 marks in BABIP and hard-hit rate both season-long and over the past 30 games. With weak contact expected and friendly odds, Boston labeled the under a strong value prop.

Joe Pisapia’s favorite Tuesday wager is Freddy Peralta over 6.5 strikeouts at –128. The Rockies enter with a league-worst four wins and a 27 % K-rate against right-handers, while Peralta sports a 34 % strikeout rate and has cleared seven punch-outs in three of his first four starts. Colorado’s contact quality is equally dreadful (84 mph average exit velocity on the road), so Joe expects Craig Counsell to let Peralta work deep enough to reach 95-plus pitches. "Rockies plus a big park equals free Ks," he quipped, projecting 8–10 strikeouts and calling the over a smash as long as the line stays below 7.0.

Lonte Smith prefers an alt-market combo: Freddy Peralta 6+ strikeouts paired with the Brewers moneyline, a bet that should return near even money. Peralta has fanned at least six in five of his last six and now faces the weakest lineup of his recent slate; Chicago’s 26 percent strikeout rate versus right-handers is third-worst in MLB. Lonte also likes Milwaukee’s team total over 4.5, expecting the bats to punish Bryse Wilson and a Sox bullpen that owns a 5.02 FIP over the past two weeks. He views the K-prop/Moneyline parlay as lower-variance than laying –233 and a smart way to capitalize on both edges in one ticket.

Malcolm Bamford hunted for a way around the hefty –233 Brewers moneyline and settled on Freddy Peralta to record the win at what he hopes will open near +125. Peralta averages 5.9 innings per start and is backed by a Milwaukee lineup that ranks top-5 in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Chicago counters with Bryse Wilson as an opener, effectively turning the game into a bullpen day for a relief corps carrying a 4.28 ERA and the league’s worst WHIP. Malcolm trusts Peralta’s strikeout-heavy profile (31 percent K-rate) to silence a White Sox offense bottom-three in every meaningful category, making the win prop the cleanest way to extract value from the lopsided matchup.

Stephen highlighted Freddy Peralta as a prime strikeout target against the swing-and-miss–heavy White Sox, suggesting bettors look to play the OVER on any K prop that opens at 6.5 or lower. Chicago owns the third-highest K rate versus right-handed pitching in the last three weeks (25%). Peralta has 36 strikeouts across 33.1 innings, posted six-plus Ks in each of his first four starts, and still shows strong underlying swing-and-miss metrics even after modest totals (5 and 3 Ks) in his last two games against lower-K clubs (Giants and A’s). He sports a 31% K rate vs right-handed hitters, giving him the platoon edge against a predominantly righty Chicago lineup. If books hang a discounted number because of his recent dip, Stephen believes the over is actionable for both betting slips and DFS pitcher pools.

Michael Savio advised laying the -1.5 run line with Milwaukee largely because Freddy Peralta gives the Brewers a massive starting-pitching edge. Peralta owns a 2.43 ERA and 1.08 WHIP and now faces a Chicago lineup that sits dead-last in baseball with a .612 OPS. On the other side, the White Sox have declared a bullpen game with ex-Brewer Bryse Wilson (4.30 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, seven earned runs allowed in only 12⅔ innings) expected to open before handing things to a relief corps that ranks near the bottom of every major metric. Savio noted that Wilson’s short leash all but guarantees extended exposure to that pen, while Peralta should work deep and limit traffic against a punchless offense. He called the -130 juice acceptable because the combination of Milwaukee’s ace, Chicago’s pen, and the Sox’s league-worst offense creates multiple paths for the Brewers to win by two or more.

Just A Bet Outside cashed an under 16.5 outs prop on Freddy Peralta and said the pattern is worth riding. Peralta was pulled in the 6th without recording an out yet again—a scenario that has repeated "almost every start" this season. The tout noted that Milwaukee continues to keep Peralta’s pitch count tight and that his efficiency tends to crumble after two turns through the order, making sub-17-out unders a strong look until sportsbooks adjust.

Jordan Cooper said Freddy Peralta is the one arm on Wednesday’s slate that can realistically pop for 30‑plus DraftKings points. SimLabs gives Peralta a slate‑best 29% optimal rate while his projected ownership sits at just 27%, a level Cooper called "not over‑owned" and one he would be comfortable pushing to 35% of lineups. At $9,800—only $200 more than Logan Webb—Peralta offers a superior strikeout ceiling against a Giants lineup that has struggled versus right‑handed power pitching. Cooper framed Peralta as the priority tournament spend‑up because he combines ceiling, reasonable ownership, and only modest opportunity cost on a night where most other pitchers project for mid‑teens fantasy totals.

Even while picking the Giants, Kingpin Staff played Freddy Peralta over 7.5 strikeouts. Peralta’s 34% strikeout rate is fourth‑best among qualifiers, and the Giants whiff 26% of the time versus right‑handed four‑seamers and sliders—the two pitches Peralta throws 81% of the time. Cool Bay Area temps should allow him to work deep; projections have him for 104 pitches and 8‑9 Ks.

Beermakersfan chose Freddy Peralta as his preferred SP1, noting the Brewers are –150 home favorites over Oakland and Peralta has punched out at least six hitters in every 2024 start ( seven K’s per outing on average ). His 38% strikeout rate versus right‑handed bats lines up perfectly with a projected A’s lineup containing six righties. Beer believes Oakland’s improved early‑season K‑rate is unsustainable and sees double‑digit punch‑out potential, giving Peralta both a high floor and elite ceiling for tournaments.

Reichel backed Milwaukee first five –0.5, citing Freddy Peralta’s rock‑solid form versus A’s rookie J.T. Ginn. Peralta has allowed fewer than three earned runs in all four starts and carries a 2.31 ERA; Ginn has made just one big‑league appearance (5.1 IP, 1 ER vs San Francisco) so Reichel wants to see more than a single data point. The Brewers are 7‑3 at American Family Field, while Oakland’s 7‑3 road mark is heavily White Sox‑inflated and therefore misleading. Milwaukee’s bullpen is "a mess," so Reichel prefers to avoid the late innings and capture Peralta’s reliability early. Lean under 8.0 was mentioned, but his actionable wager is Brewers first five run line behind the more proven arm.

Peterson laid -1.5 runs with Milwaukee at +135 (he priced it +113). The Brewers rank sixth in scoring (4.8 RPG) and get to tee off on rookie JT Ginn, who owns a pedestrian 3.89 ERA and 1.1 HR/9 over just seven career starts. Freddy Peralta is in ace form (2.31 ERA) and should neutralize an Oakland lineup traveling for a third straight city. With both bullpens bottom‑five in ERA, Peterson prefers the stronger offense to separate late and cover the run line.

Kenny G slightly leans toward Freddy Peralta and the Brewers (+100) as potential first five innings underdogs versus the Diamondbacks. Despite Arizona's bullpen strength and solid offensive production, Kenny expressed skepticism around Zac Gallen's uneven performances this year. With Brewers coming off a disheartening loss scenario and decent road record, Kenny believes betting Milwaukee first five innings at even money carries appealing value while limiting exposure against a potent D-backs lineup and good bullpen later in the game.

Guy Boston confidently backed Milwaukee Brewers and pitcher Freddy Peralta today despite playing at Coors Field. He recognized the obvious risks associated with Denver's hitter-friendly conditions but emphasized Peralta's impressive early-season form and excellent historical metrics versus the Rockies. While acknowledging concerns around Kyle Freeland's deceptive matchup with Milwaukee bats, he nevertheless trusts Peralta enough to justify backing Milwaukee on first five innings bets. He also intriguingly considered an under in this game, predicting one side could dominate and suppress totals despite Coors' environment.

Jamie Calandro views Freddy Peralta as a strong DFS pitching play on DraftKings specifically, despite pitching at Coors Field. Calandro cited Peralta's appealing price point allowing roster construction flexibility. The Rockies struggled significantly against right-handers last season with the third-highest strikeout rate, and the colder temperature at Coors should mitigate some environmental factors. Peralta has been impressive early with a 34.8% strikeout rate this season, indicating he can deliver value despite the park factor.

Jim Sannes suggests betting the under on Freddy Peralta's 6.5 strikeout total, despite impressive early-season performances. Peralta opened 2025 strong with 16 strikeouts in 13 innings to date, including an attention-grabbing outing at Yankee Stadium. However, tonight he faces the notorious challenge of Coors Field, where elevated altitude reduces pitch movement and typically suppresses strikeout rates. Even factoring in Peralta’s sizzling start, Sannes projects him for just 6.06 strikeouts in tonight's contest, projecting pitchers in that range historically going under this strikeout total 64.6% of the time—creating value on betting the under.

FTN Staff recommended betting Freddy Peralta over 6.5 strikeouts for April 8, 2025, citing strong projections from FTN's proprietary MLB model. The model predicts 8.18 Ks for Peralta, indicating a substantial 19.74% edge relative to the betting line of 6.5 Ks available at DraftKings (-130). The analysis strongly implies Peralta is positioned well to surpass the number, making this an appealing betting opportunity.

Brian Howard explained he's strongly considering Freddy Peralta's strikeout props against the Rockies. He specifically noted Colorado's lineup tends to strikeout often, an angle he plans to exploit throughout the season. Peralta already has eight strikeouts in each of his first two starts this year, further increasing Howard’s confidence. He stated if Peralta's strikeout prop is listed at five and a half he’s fully committed, and would still consider the play at six and a half if the odds offer substantial plus money.

Data Skrive indicated Freddy Peralta as a strong strikeout prop bet candidate in his upcoming start against the Rockies. The Rockies rank dead last in MLB, striking out only 7 batters per nine innings as a pitching staff, which implies they also struggle at limiting opposing pitchers' strikeout totals due to weak offensive production. Peralta, who has a strong career strikeout rate of 10.8 KO/9 innings, will have a favorable matchup against an offense that strikes out 10.9 times per game, ranking 25th among MLB offenses this season. Given these disparities and Colorado's offensive struggles, Data Skrive recommends taking the over on Peralta's strikeout prop.

Guy Boston recommended betting Freddy Peralta over 1.5 earned runs in his matchup against the Royals. Peralta allowed two earned runs in his only start this year against the Yankees, and going back to last season he cashed this over in 61% (20 of 33) of his starts. His average earned runs per game last season was 2.24, significantly higher at home (72% hit rate, 13 of 18 home starts, averaging 2.5 ER at home). Peralta's struggles at home coupled with the Royals' decent hitting start this season—ranking 13th in batting average and scoring two or more runs in four of five games—support this negative outlook. Royals' hitters also have solid batting averages (.261 Perez, .267 Pasquantino, .336 Witt) against right-handed pitching, adding additional evidence for Peralta allowing multiple runs today.

Adam Rosenberg suggested taking the Under (5.5) strikeouts for Freddy Peralta at +125 odds against the Yankees. Rosenberg pointed out the Yankees ranked inside the top 10 fewest strikeouts last season and have continued that trend by consistently putting balls in play throughout spring training. He also highlighted concerns with Peralta stemming from spring training—Brewers pitchers threw the most pitches per inning, including Peralta, who recently allowed 8 runs in a start. Additionally, Peralta went under this strikeout number (6) in seven of his final 10 starts last season. With his outs line heavily juiced to the under, Rosenberg expects Peralta to max out around 5 innings, making the under a strong bet given his limited innings and opposing lineup.

Bettor Mark warned bettors that Freddy Peralta is vulnerable to home runs, particularly in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium with its shorter porch dimension. Although Peralta has the ability to record frequent strikeouts, Mark cautioned that he is historically prone to give up long balls, especially early in the season. As such, Mark expressed a strong lean toward betting the over in Brewers-Yankees on Opening Day, anticipating potential early-season mistakes and home run potential from Yankee hitters, ultimately refraining from making it an official pick but encouraged consideration of the over as a smart angle.

Brian Howard highlighted Freddy Peralta's successful history against key Yankees hitters, giving him strong strikeout potential and a favorable opening-day matchup. He noted the exceptional strength of the Brewers bullpen, rated by Kyle Purviance as the third-best bullpen in MLB, suggesting the Brewers will be especially dangerous if they get an early lead with Peralta on the mound. Howard proposed betting on the Brewers double result (leading after first five innings and winning the game), labeling it a potentially lucrative play due to Peralta's dominance against the Yankees lineup and the Brewers' bullpen strength.