Rob Donaldson fired one unit on Gabriel Arias to hit a home run in Great American Ball Park. He noted Brady Singer’s whiff rate has cratered to 18% (career-low) while his barrel rate has spiked to 11.4%. With the wind blowing out and GABP already the No. 2 HR park in Statcast Park Factors, Rob expects Singer’s 43% hard-hit rate to translate into long balls. Arias has posted a .286 ISO versus right-handers this season and grades top-five on the Guardians in average exit velocity. Rob called the spot ‘tailor-made’ for a cheap Arias bomb.

Radowitz also likes Gabriel Arias Over 1.5 total bases at +140 in the same game. Arias owns a .218 ISO and .363 wOBA through his first 60 plate appearances against righties. Ober’s poor batted-ball profile (34.2% line drives, 36.7% fly balls, only 26.6% grounders) and sub-average 20.9% strikeout rate create ideal launch-angle conditions for Arias’ power. With Ober unlikely to reach even 80 pitches, Arias should see extra looks at a mediocre bullpen, making the over a live plus-money play.