Razzle said Garrett Crochet owns the highest strikeout upside on the daytime main slate. His K-prop sits at 6.5 and is juiced to the over, while books still give him +105 to snag the win despite Boston being a solid –155 favorite. Razzle pointed out that Milwaukee has struggled badly versus left-handed pitching all year—Sunday’s blip against Bailey Falter notwithstanding—giving Crochet both a plus matchup and the slate’s No. 1 projection for punch-outs. Warm temps are confined to Tampa, so weather in Boston is not a concern. All pieces together, Crochet is his top cash-game arm and a core DFS spend-up.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Garrett Crochet as the lone strike-out spot he actually likes on Monday. Milwaukee owns the 11th-highest strike-out rate over the last three weeks (24.5%), and Crochet continues to miss bats at an elite clip—78 punch-outs in 68.1 IP. The host noted Crochet’s K-rate jumps to 29.7% on the road (vs. 27.8% at home) and absolutely spikes against left-handed hitters (37.5%). After posting only five Ks versus the Mets in his last start—his second-lowest total of the season—he registered eight and nine strikeouts in the two prior outings, reinforcing ceiling potential. Given Milwaukee’s swing-and-miss profile and Crochet’s underlying metrics, the tout framed his Over strike-out prop as the best pitching angle on today’s board and a DFS core play.

Eric Lindquist advised taking the UNDER on Garrett Crochet’s 6.5-strikeout prop versus Milwaukee. Lindquist noted that Crochet’s gaudy 35.1% K-rate last year came in short relief stints. Now that the White Sox are letting him work deeper into games, Lindquist expects natural regression due to innings-based arm fatigue. He added that public bettors routinely push Crochet’s number higher because of name recognition, creating value on the under when books open at 6.5 or higher. While the Brewers are mediocre against lefties, Lindquist still projects fewer than seven punch-outs, making the under a plus-EV wager.

Labeling him the "safest pick of the day," Soni took Garrett Crochet over 6.5 strikeouts at -170. Crochet carries a 1.98 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 78 Ks in 68.1 IP (10.3 K/9). With pitch counts consistently in the 90s and a fastball that overwhelms hitters from the left side, he draws a lineup vulnerable to left-handed velocity. Soni believes Crochet’s swing-and-miss stuff plus workload make seven or more Ks highly probable.

Maher countered by locking in Garrett Crochet despite acknowledging the southpaw’s limited workload history. Crochet sports a sub-2.00 ERA and elite 32% strike-out rate, and Maher is willing to brave road dates at Milwaukee and Atlanta. The Brewers are middle-of-the-pack against lefties, while Atlanta’s order is more daunting, but Ronald Acuna will just be returning from injury. Maher expects Crochet’s overpowering fastball/slider combo to play in any park and believes the upside justifies the risk, especially in leagues where strikeouts are at a premium.

Rockford said the only viable angle in Mets-Red Sox is a Mets team-total under (3.0–4.5, depending on what books hang). New York has failed to score more than four runs in over a week, and both Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto remain ice-cold. Garrett Crochet, meanwhile, has not allowed more than two earned in any of his last four Fenway starts and benefits from stiff winds projected to blow in again on Wednesday. Rockford’s own model came out to 8.1 on the full-game total, so rather than sweat both clubs he is isolating the toothless Mets offense and betting it stays quiet against a surging left-hander.

Guy Boston recommended backing the Red Sox in the first five innings (or full-game ML at plus money) behind Garrett Crochet. Crochet’s high-octane four-seamer (97.4 mph) and wipeout slider have produced a 34% strikeout rate and 2.11 xFIP through his first 42 AL starts. Boston believes that arsenal matches up perfectly against a Kansas City lineup that, despite a 9-1 run in its last 10, has scored four or fewer in seven of those wins and owns the league’s fourth-highest K-rate versus left-handed sliders. He acknowledged Cole Ragans’ talent but highlighted Boston’s ability to work counts (seventh-best walk rate) and Ragans’ 42% hard-hit rate allowed his last three outings. The key angle is avoiding Boston’s overworked bullpen (used 12.1 innings the past two days) by isolating the first five. Boston would also consider a KC team-total under 1.5 F5 if books hang it at even money, trusting Crochet’s 0.95 WHIP and the Royals’ bottom-tier power profile in night games at Fenway.

Matt Perrault said he is now treating every Garrett Crochet outing as a first-five moneyline play, starting with Saturday’s matchup in Kansas City at –120. Perrault wants no exposure to Boston’s bullpen, which repeatedly coughs up late leads. The Red Sox give Crochet plenty of early help—2.88 runs per game in the first five overall (5th-best in MLB) and 2.85 on the road (tied for 6th). By taking the F5 moneyline rather than the –0.5 run line, a tie after five innings results in a push, protecting the stake while still capitalizing on Boston’s top-five early offense and Crochet’s strong recent form (four straight starts of one or two earned runs). Perrault expects the approach to remain profitable the rest of the season whenever Crochet takes the mound.

Matt Perrault recommended Boston –0.5 on the first-five-innings run line at –120 against Kansas City. He wants exposure only to the early frames because the Red Sox bullpen keeps squandering leads. Boston’s lineup ranks first in MLB in runs during the first three innings, while KC starter Cole Regans has wobbled in two of his last three outings (5 ER at Detroit, 4 ER at home versus Colorado). Perrault called the Red Sox starter "their ace"—Garrett Crochet in his notes—and pointed to Crochet’s recent form: 5 IP/1 ER vs Minnesota, 7 IP/2 ER vs Toronto, and previously two scoreless outings of 6+ innings. With Boston’s offense typically providing early run support and Regans occasionally vulnerable, Perrault expects the Sox to be leading after five and prefers the –0.5 line to avoid late-game bullpen variance.

Joe Pisapia urged managers to aim sky-high if they shop Garrett Crochet, insisting the left-hander’s breakout merits a return such as Fernando Tatis Jr. or Francisco Lindor. Pisapia framed Crochet as a top-five fantasy starter thanks to an elite strikeout rate (over 11.0 K/9) and strong team context. He warned against two-for-one offers like Brian Woo plus Carson Kelly, stressing that Crochet’s value is too high to settle for quantity over quality. The takeaway: treat Crochet like an ace and do not move him unless you secure a true difference-making hitter.

Joe Pisapia urged managers to aim sky-high if they shop Garrett Crochet, insisting the left-hander’s breakout merits a return such as Fernando Tatis Jr. or Francisco Lindor. Pisapia framed Crochet as a top-five fantasy starter thanks to an elite strikeout rate (over 11.0 K/9) and strong team context. He warned against two-for-one offers like Brian Woo plus Carson Kelly, stressing that Crochet’s value is too high to settle for quantity over quality. The takeaway: treat Crochet like an ace and do not move him unless you secure a true difference-making hitter.

Razzle called Garrett Crochet the top arm on the entire 11-game slate. Boston is –205 to win, Crochet owns the highest K-prop of the day at 6.5 (pick-em juice), and he carries +110 win odds, best on the board. The Twins lineup is light on intimidating bats and whiffs at a league-average clip, giving Crochet a path to double-digit strikeouts and the fabled DK ‘nut’ score.

Chris Morgan highlighted Garrett Crochet as the slate’s safest high-end arm. The left-hander owns a 2.60 FIP that mirrors last year’s 2.68 mark and continues to strike out hitters at a double-digit per-nine clip. Morgan called the matchup ideal, noting Minnesota still hovers near the bottom-10 in runs scored, giving DFS managers the classic "top-tier pitcher vs bottom-tier offense" setup at $10,700 on FanDuel.

Matt Perrault backed Boston on the money-line leg of his parlay because he expects a bounce-back outing from Garrett Crochet. Crochet is 3-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and has already logged two gems at Fenway this season (6 IP, 0 ER vs White Sox; 5.2 IP, 1 ER vs Blue Jays). Perrault dismissed Crochet’s last Fenway blip (5 IP, 4 ER, 5 BB) as uncharacteristic and emphasized that Minnesota’s offense ranks near the bottom of MLB in almost every category. On the other side Chris Paddack is 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA, giving Boston a clear pitching edge. After Saturday’s 4-3 loss Perrault believes the Red Sox “can’t afford” to drop another game with their ace on the hill, making the Sox a trustworthy anchor for parlays at home despite the steep −200 money-line price.

Nez Badge Bros said he is still willing to ladder Garrett Crochet’s strikeout prop up to 7.5 even though the Blue Jays strike out less than league average. Nez trusts Crochet’s "nasty stuff" and rising whiff rate, noting that pushing the line creates a 1.24× payout that balloons to 70.45× when combined with his 60 percent Underdog boost. Sliding the number, in Nez’s view, properly prices Crochet’s punch-out ceiling without requiring a perfect matchup and gives bettors a high-upside anchor leg for multi-pick tickets.

Nez Badge Bros suggested sliding Garrett Crochet’s strikeout line up in Underdog’s pick’em ladder. Crochet ranks sixth in MLB with a 33% strikeout rate and draws a Tigers lineup striking out 25.7% versus lefties. Detroit’s projected order features five hitters with whiff rates above 28%, and Comerica Park’s spacious gaps should keep Crochet’s pitch count intact by limiting quick homers. Nez is comfortable playing 7+, 8+, and even 9+ Ks to juice the multiplier, noting Crochet has already logged double-digit punch-outs twice in seven starts.

Welsh doubled down on Garrett Crochet, recommending Boston FIRST-FIVE moneyline rather than the run line to secure a push on a tie. He noted that Bowden Francis is likely getting the spot start for Toronto and has allowed 13 runs in his last 12 big-league innings. In contrast, Crochet carries a 2.35 xFIP, elite 33 % strikeout rate, and the longest average start length (6.2 IP) in the Red Sox rotation. With Fenway’s weather expected to suppress homers, Welsh projects Boston to be leading or tied by the end of the fifth and said anything up to –125 is playable.

Joe Pisapia said the best prop on Wednesday is Garrett Crochet OVER 6.5 strikeouts at +128. Pisapia admitted Crochet’s last turn was his first real stumble of 2025, but reminded listeners the outing before that he fanned 10 in six shut-out frames and still owns a 1.08 ERA with a 34 % K-rate across the young season. He pointed out that Toronto had not even named a starter when sportsbooks posted the line – meaning the Blue Jays will either be scrambling with Bowden Francis or rolling a bullpen game – while the Red Sox have Crochet fully rested on his normal five-day routine. With Fenway’s forecast calling for 58 ° and heavy marine air, he expects Boston to let Crochet work deep, projecting 95–100 pitches and 8–9 punch-outs. Pisapia added you can parlay the strikeout over with a Red Sox moneyline play for a near 3-to-1 payout if you want extra juice.

Jordan Cooper said Garrett Crochet is the premium arm that SimLabs will likely be overweight on because the field is coming in light. Crochet carries a slate-high 24 % chance of landing in the optimal yet projects for only 16 % ownership. That 8-point ownership gap gives him the best leverage score among the spend-up pitchers. Cooper noted that Crochet still owns top-tier raw points, sits in the same pricing tier as Peralta and deGrom, and faces a Toronto lineup striking out 24 % of the time versus lefties. Because deGrom and Bryce Miller are trending over-owned, Cooper advised jamming extra Crochet exposure in large-field MLB DFS tournaments.

Savio recommended taking the Red Sox moneyline at -160, banking on Garrett Crochet to bounce back from his lone rough start of the month. Crochet still sports a 1.95 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, and he posted a 1.69 ERA over five April outings before the stumble against Seattle. He already held Toronto to one earned run across 5⅔ innings earlier this month. Since that meeting the Blue Jays’ bats have cratered, hitting just .168 over the last seven days. Toronto counters with Bowden Francis (3.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), who dominated Boston in 2024 but now faces a hotter Red Sox lineup paced by Jarren Duran and Alex Bregman—both batting above .405 this week. Savio framed the pitching edge, current form of each offense, and Boston’s defensive improvement as justification for laying the price.

Chris Welsh jammed the first-five-innings under (4.5 runs) into his best-bet column because he views Friday’s Crochet-versus-Wu duel as a perfect storm for low scoring. Welsh noted that Garrett Crochet has looked “incredible, like that Cy Young guy again,” sitting upper-90s with the fastball while carrying a sub-2.00 ERA over his last three turns. On the other side, Boston’s offense has been "pretty strike-out heavy," a profile that plays directly into the strengths of Brian Wu’s pitch-to-contact, low-walk arsenal. Wu’s 5% walk rate and 30% hard-hit rate create minimal traffic, and Crochet’s whiff rate has spiked above 32%, so Welsh expects both starters to work clean, efficient frames. Seattle’s lineup, meanwhile, has been “meh,” ranking bottom-10 in OPS this month, which further limits crooked-number potential. Add in a neutral Fenway weather forecast with temperatures in the 50s, and Welsh is confident the game stays under 4½ through five, making it his favorite wagering angle of the slate.

Daniel Vreeland backed the NRFI at -130 for Thursday’s matinee in Fenway, hanging his hat on Garrett Crochet’s blistering start to 2025. The newly-acquired southpaw owns a 1.13 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 32 innings and has yet to allow a first-inning run all season. Vreeland noted that while Seattle ranks top-10 in overall runs scored, they remain below league average in first-inning scoring percentage, easing concerns about Julio Rodriguez and company jumping on Crochet early. On the other side, Bryan Woo brings a 3.13 ERA and a heavy pitch-to-contact approach that plays well against a Boston lineup averaging only 1.0 home run per game. With both arms profiling as early-inning stoppers and each offense lacking a history of fast starts, Vreeland labeled the NRFI the best way to attack this matchup.

Drew Martin said to smash Garrett Crochet’s strikeout prop over when Seattle visits Fenway. Crochet has opened 2025 with a 1.11 ERA, just 19 hits allowed in 32+ innings and 18 strikeouts in his last two starts alone after recording 200-plus Ks a season ago. Martin expects manager Alex Cora to give Crochet a long leash because the Red Sox bullpen has struggled, further boosting punch-out volume. Seattle is finishing a nine-game, three-city road swing and sits among the league leaders in strikeout rate versus left-handers, giving Martin confidence the big southpaw will clear whatever number books post overnight.

Matt Perrault fired one unit on the Red Sox -1.5 at +125 because he expects Garrett Crochet to carve up Seattle in a sleepy 10 a.m.-body-clock spot for the Mariners. Perrault rattled off Crochet’s obscene Fenway numbers—1.13 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 35 strikeouts—and reminded listeners the lefty has already silenced the White Sox twice (1 ER over 13 ⅓ IP). He contrasted that with Bryan Woo’s road splits (three earned over 7 IP in Toronto and four earned over 6 IP in San Francisco) and noted Woo’s overall 3.12 ERA looks much shinier than his performances outside T-Mobile Park. He added context around Boston’s bullpen blowing Crochet’s only Fenway blemishes, implying the underlying dominance is intact. Factor in a cross-country travel day game after Seattle’s eight-run outburst Wednesday, and Perrault sees value in the Sox run line at plus money.

Just A Bet Outside recommended a two-tier strikeout ladder on Garrett Crochet: 8+ Ks at –140 for a half-unit and 9+ Ks at +135 for a quarter-unit, with an optional sprinkle on 10+ Ks around +250. He noted Crochet has topped eight strikeouts in two of five outings despite early-season pitch limits and now faces the most whiff-happy lineup he has seen. Seattle carries the third-highest strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching (29.1%) and has already made mediocre southpaws look like aces—Sean Newcomb 8 Ks, Easton Lucas 5, Nick Lodolo 6, Framber Valdez 8, Tarik Skubal 8, JP Sears 7, Jeffrey Springs 9. Crochet’s 31% K-rate outpaces all of those arms, he owns a 1.98 FIP, and Boston is letting him work deeper (96 pitches last time out). Against a team that chases and cannot lay off the high fastball, the tout expects double-digit punchouts and is comfortable climbing the ladder.

Kyle Purviance flagged Garrett Crochet’s strikeout prop as his favorite angle for Thursday. Seattle has fanned 80 times in just 247 plate appearances versus left-handed pitching—a 32.4% K-rate that ranks among MLB’s worst. Purviance expects books to hang 6.5 or 7.5 and is comfortable laddering to 8+ at plus money, but he will stop short of 9+ because the payoff curve flattens there. The total is 8.5, and he projects Crochet to work deep enough for 95–100 pitches, making 7–8 strikeouts the median outcome. He prefers this to a side bet since Bryan Wu’s arsenal features four pitches within a 7-mph band, which could make Boston’s offense live and create extra plate appearances for Crochet.

Lindquist circled Garrett Crochet’s strikeout prop as his favorite play on the board, projecting 10 punch-outs if the book hangs 8.5 or 9.5. The Mariners strike out a slate-high 29.8 % against left-handed pitching and their projected lineup features seven right-handed bats with individual K-rates of 22 % or higher. Crochet, meanwhile, has ramped his whiff rate back to last year’s elite 35 % ceiling after fanning 18 hitters across his last two starts. He is limiting hard contact to 29.5 % and will pitch in Fenway with neutral winds, eliminating any weather discount. Lindquist plans a full-unit play at –115 if the market opens 8.5, and a quarter-unit ladder to the 10-plus K alt line at plus money.

JD Bets said to hammer Garrett Crochet’s Over 7.5 strikeouts at Fenway. He reminded viewers that Crochet shredded this exact Red Sox lineup just six days ago in Chicago, fanning 11 and generating whiffs on 38 percent of his swings. Boston’s projected order owns strikeout rates between 33–50 percent against left‑handers, a trend JD showed on his spreadsheet. Although Saturday’s game features 16‑mph wind blowing straight out to center with temps in the low‑80s, JD is un‑concerned because Chicago’s sticks are dead‑last in OPS (.610) and 29th in homers, making a blow‑up inning less likely to shorten Crochet’s outing. As long as the southpaw avoids early hard contact, JD expects him to clear eight punch‑outs for the fifth time this year and calls the 7.5 line a full strike too low.

Javan Shouey backed Garrett Crochet to record the win at -120, playable to -130. He pointed out that Boston is a hefty -330 money‑line favorite and -180 to lead after five innings, creating a far better price on the pitcher‑win prop than laying the team lines. Chicago owns the league’s 28th‑ranked wOBA and a 56 wRC+ versus lefties, while Crochet just carved them up for 11 strikeouts over 7.1 innings of one‑run ball, flirting with a no‑hitter. Boston’s bullpen is rested and sits 2nd in FIP, increasing the likelihood they protect any lead. Weather at Fenway features low‑80s temps and a stiff breeze out to center, an overall boost for Boston’s bats against rookie Shane Smith, who is making his first quick‑turn rematch. Shouey acknowledged the traditional Fenway lefty risk and the back‑to‑back matchup factor, but believes the Red Sox offense’s home splits versus righties offset it, projecting Crochet to clear five innings with a lead that never disappears.

Lonte Smith urged bettors to attack Garrett Crochet’s strikeout prop after the lefty fanned 11 White Sox hitters six days ago. Crochet has logged 8‑plus K’s in two of his last three starts and carries a 34% strikeout rate that ranks third among qualified MLB starters. Chicago’s lineup struck out 29.8% versus southpaws in April and owns the league’s worst hard‑hit percentage, so Lonte expects another whiff‑fest. He suggested playing Over 7.5 at standard juice and laddering to 9+ and 11+ at escalating prices. Because Boston’s Ben Smith has allowed two earned runs or fewer in every start and both offenses rank bottom‑five in OPS, Lonte paired the K prop with Under 8.5 for a correlated same‑game approach, projecting a 4‑1 Red Sox win with Crochet flirting with double‑digit punch‑outs.

Ron Romanelli said to play Boston at -1.5 (and even -2.5) because Garrett Crochet is set up for a bounce‑back gem. Fenway normally worries him with left‑handers, and Crochet’s lone home turn (5.2 IP, 5 H, 4 BB, HR, 4 R/1 ER) was his shakiest. Still, the Red Sox are 3‑1 when he starts and Crochet just carved the White Sox for 7.1 innings of one‑run, 11‑strikeout ball last week. Chicago owns one of MLB’s worst wRC+ figures versus southpaws and was shut out against JP Sears two days ago. Opposing rookie Shane Smith has pitched fine but the White Sox are 0‑3 in his outings with two failed run‑line covers. Romanelli expects Boston’s lineup to give Crochet a cushion and win comfortably.

Gary Sheffield Jr. identified Garrett Crochet as a major bright spot for the struggling Red Sox, endorsing him as a top-five pitcher league-wide and praising Boston's foresight with the trade and subsequent contract. He highlighted Crochet's impressive bat-missing abilities and growing comfort on the mound, predicting sustained elite performance moving forward. Despite team struggles, Sheffield insisted acquiring and securing Crochet was a savvy and impactful decision for Boston, making him a pitcher worth backing in betting and season-long formats.

Mike Mayer aggressively backed Garrett Crochet following his brilliant performance against the White Sox, where Crochet flirted with a no-hitter and recorded 11 strikeouts over 7.1 innings. Mayer specifically contested earlier critiques by Welsh questioning Crochet's velocity and effectiveness, noting Crochet's exceptional ERA (1.45) so far and emphasizing pitching dominance in recent outings as proof that Welsh was wrong in doubting Crochet's effectiveness.

Andy Smith identifies Garrett Crochet as a top DFS pitching play. Crochet had an outstanding first two starts of the season (1.38 ERA, 0.92 WHIP in 13 innings) but suffered a modest performance in his last start. He is expected to rebound significantly against the White Sox, who enter the game with the seventh-lowest wRC+ and the 13th-highest strikeout rate against left-handers. Smith believes Crochet is an ideal DFS play who can exploit Chicago's offensive vulnerabilities.

Chris Morgan recommended Garrett Crochet as a prime DFS pitching option due to his matchup against the struggling White Sox. Last season with Chicago, Crochet posted an impressive 2.68 FIP and a strong 12.88 strikeouts per nine innings despite minimal run support. He's continued that success with the Red Sox, posting a 2.98 FIP through three starts. The White Sox continue to struggle offensively, ranking bottom-10 in runs scored with an OBP below .300, setting Crochet up for potential high strikeout totals and a favorable fantasy outing.

Chris Welsh is sounding alarms regarding Garrett Crochet after watching all his starts this season. Welsh is concerned about Crochet's diminished velocity, change in pitch mix, drop in whiffs, and inability to properly grip the ball in cold weather starts. Welsh recalled Crochet's poor April splits last season, posting a 5.97 ERA and a notably high 7 home runs allowed, attributing Crochet's early struggles partially to cold weather conditions. Despite a strong showing in his most recent outing, Welsh suggests these conditions will negatively impact Crochet's early-season fantasy value and recommends caution moving forward.

Guy Boston called attention to Garrett Crochet's impressive recent performance for Boston against Baltimore, where he looked excellent on the mound. Pairing Crochet's promising pitching form against Toronto's offense, combined with Boston's favorable batting splits against left-handed pitching from Lucas, Guy Boston feels Crochet provides strong support to back the Red Sox in today's matchup. Crochet coming off such confidence-inspiring results bolsters the case that the Red Sox can bounce back offensively after yesterday's cooling off.

Garion Thorne recommended backing Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox run-line (-1.5), highlighting Crochet's strong recent performance including an eight-inning scoreless outing against the Orioles. Crochet owns a stellar 1.38 ERA, 1.92 FIP, and has yet to allow a homer in this young season across 13 innings. Thorne emphasized Toronto's weak offense as a key driver, noting the Blue Jays' league-low five home runs and poor .106 ISO (third-worst in MLB). Given Toronto's reliance on stringing multiple hits ("station-to-station") and Crochet's high strikeout ability (.216 opponent batting average), Thorne sees another effective outing from Crochet. Additionally, Boston holds an elite .316 batting average and 137 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, providing further confidence they'll bounce back offensively against Jays starter and journeyman Easton Lucas, who carries a career MLB ERA of 7.71.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended betting on the Red Sox to win and cover the spread, highlighting the return of pitcher Garrett Crochet as a significant boon to Boston's pitching staff. Crochet, who has delivered two multi-run victories already this season, represents an upgrade over pitchers that recently shut down Toronto's offense. Boston carries momentum following a sweep of St. Louis, including an offensive outburst (18 runs scored in one game). Considering Toronto's recent hitting woes and Boston's recent strong form, the Red Sox hold clear betting value.

Matt Perrault is taking the Red Sox run line (-1.5) at plus 120 odds, backing Garrett Crochet in his home debut at Fenway Park. Crochet has had two solid starts this season, leading to a 3-0 win over the Orioles and a 5-2 win over the Rangers, going deep into games and limiting earned runs effectively. Perrault strongly favors this spot as Toronto is starting Easton Lucas, a relatively inexperienced 28-year-old lefty who, due to Fenway's features and right-handed Boston hitters like a red-hot Alex Bregman, might struggle. He expects Boston to bounce back after yesterday's loss, taking advantage of Crochet's strong form and a good matchup against Lucas.

Kody Malstrom advises taking the under 0.5 runs first-inning bet in the Blue Jays vs Red Sox game because Garrett Crochet enters as a strong Cy Young favorite after a narrow miss last year. Crochet benefits heavily from rival pitcher Tarik Skubal's slow start, and will look to cement himself further at the top of the oddsboard. He's been highly effective so far, holding opponents to less than one hit per inning, a WHIP of 0.923, and a stellar 1.93 FIP, indicating minimal contact allowed. This aligns perfectly against a Blue Jays offense known for struggling to drive runners in and demonstrating below-average contact rates. Facing Crochet could exacerbate this issue even further. The opposing pitcher, Easton Lucas, debuted impressively with a flawless 0.00 ERA, 0.600 WHIP, and allowed just 1 hit with 3 strikeouts. Although Boston has a strong lineup ranking high in hits, Lucas gains support from Toronto's stout defensive unit, which ranks ninth in Defensive Efficiency, further decreasing the likelihood of a first-inning run.

Michael Savio is bullish on Garrett Crochet's chances to dominate against the Blue Jays, recommending betting the Red Sox on the run line (-1.5, +112 odds). Crochet has enjoyed a stellar beginning to his Red Sox tenure, owning a 1.38 ERA and a sparkling 0.92 WHIP through two starts. His recent performance was particularly impressive as he completely shut down the Orioles over eight innings, surrendering just four hits and racking up eight punchouts. Toronto, meanwhile, has struggled offensively, having just been swept by the Mets in a series where they scored three runs total over three games. Savio expects Crochet to again neutralize a cold Jays lineup, while projecting Boston's offense—top-three in MLB in OPS and recently energized by Rafael Devers hitting .526 over the first five games of April—to handle rookie Easton Lucas, who faces a considerably tougher opposition compared to his first career start last week against the Nationals.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised betting on the Red Sox to win due to Garrett Crochet's strong start to the season, allowing only two runs over 13 innings and striking out 12 hitters. Toronto's offense has been ice cold, scoring just three total runs in their recent three-game series with the Mets. Key Blue Jays hitters Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Santander are still home-runless, and George Springer, who has just one home run, recently collided with the outfield wall and may not be at full health. With Toronto's bats struggling and Crochet's impressive form, Boston was recommended as the money line pick for this matchup.

Joe Pisapia recommended accepting a trade involving Garrett Crochet and Bo Bichette in a keeper/dynasty league format. He argued strongly in favor of the Crochet and Bichette side (Crochet at $16, Bichette at $4), pointing out Crochet is already proving himself at the MLB level, while Bichette is an established hitter at a minimal cost. The package they are exchanging (Jackson Jobe, Matt Shaw, and Andrew Painter) presents future potential but significant uncertainty. Pisapia clearly preferred the immediate and stable production the Crochet/Bichette side provided, making it a worthwhile dynasty deal.

Jimmy Adams is recommending betting against Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox today, highlighting concern after Crochet's recent $170 million extension. Adams explained that Crochet primarily relies on just two pitches, the four-seamer and cutter, suggesting that as the game progresses, Baltimore hitters will comfortably key in on Crochet's fastball. Additionally, Adams emphasized the Orioles' strong offensive metrics, noting their MLB-best batting average on the early season, top-five run production, and power with 10 home runs already. Given this combination of factors—Crochet's predictability with limited pitch types and new contract-induced pressure, contrasted with Baltimore's strong offensive performance—Adams sees significant betting value on the Orioles.

Bettor Mark sees the Red Sox as a viable betting option (-112 moneyline) against Baltimore, largely based on anticipated positive regression from their struggling offense. Despite their disappointing 1-4 start, Mark expects Boston's hitters to turn the corner, especially against Zach Eflin, whose strong initial performance Mark doesn't believe is sustainable against the Red Sox high-upside lineup. He acknowledges how hitter-friendly Camden Yards can be and indicates the modest juiced price on Boston reflects uncertainty surrounding Garrett Crochet's ability. Ultimately, it's a 'bet Red Sox or pass' scenario for him, clearly leaning positively toward Boston rebounding offensively.

Vaughn Dalzell advised backing Garrett Crochet at +450 odds for AL Cy Young, highlighting his strong performance in 2024. Crochet posted 209 strikeouts against only 33 walks in 146 innings, resulting in a solid 3.58 ERA. His 4.9 WAR last year notably surpassed top pitchers like Logan Webb and Aaron Nola. Dalzell emphasized Crochet's remarkable 6.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio and argued that leaving the White Sox for Boston will allow Crochet increased innings and better run support, critical factors for his Cy Young candidacy. Dalzell also recommended a smaller wager on Crochet to lead MLB in wins at +2200 odds, projecting Boston's stronger offense will turn short outings from 2024 into deeper starts and substantially improved records.

Rob Donaldson is investing three units into the Red Sox moneyline against the Rangers. Donaldson highlights Nate Eovaldi's declining performance, notably his regression from peak form, frequent struggles with allowing hard hits, and vulnerability facing powerful left-handed hitters (which Boston has in abundance). On the other hand, Boston starter Garrett Crochet is now two full years removed from Tommy John surgery, which Donaldson emphasizes is typically the time pitchers regain mental confidence and full effectiveness. Given Crochet’s previously elite form with the White Sox pre-injury, Donaldson predicts him to recapture that form quickly this season and likes backing Boston as an undervalued side here.

Chris Welsh is confidently backing Garrett Crochet for AL Cy Young at odds of +450 due to Crochet's phenomenal strikeout-centric spring and last season's exceptional performance despite being on a weak team. Crochet exhibits elite strikeout capabilities, manageable walk rates, and is positioned at the top of Boston's rotation, providing plenty of win opportunities. Welsh acknowledged the challenges posed by Boston's hitter-friendly ballpark and tough divisional matchups, but ultimately believes Crochet's dominance on the mound and the Red Sox's aggressive roster strategy solidifies his appeal as a strong Cy Young candidate.

Chris Welsh loves Garrett Crochet to lead MLB in strikeouts this season, pointing out the exceptional value at 10-to-1 odds. Crochet is projected by Derek Carty's 'The BAT' system as fifth or sixth in total strikeouts league-wide, only about 16 strikeouts behind projected MLB leader Dylan Cease, but crucially with 30-40 fewer innings pitched projected. Crochet holds the highest projected strikeouts per nine innings in baseball. Welsh noted that Crochet is currently projected for only slightly more innings than he pitched last season due to conservative innings projections, which many systems underestimate. He expects the contending Red Sox to push Crochet past these conservative marks, adding potentially 10-20 extra innings. Welsh emphasized that adding just 10 innings could put Crochet near the league lead in strikeouts, and 20 additional innings would likely result in Crochet surpassing all others. Although acknowledging questions around pitching half his games in hitter-friendly Fenway Park and facing tough competition in the AL East, Welsh finds immense betting value and strongly advises this wager.