To avoid the steep –245 moneyline, Drew Martin is playing Seattle –1. He trusts George Kirby, who has won five of his last six starts and is coming off six shutout innings with six strikeouts against Texas. Chicago counters with 25-year-old Jonathan Cannon, who has been shelled for 14 hits, 12 runs and four homers in his last two appearances. The White Sox are nearly 30 games under .500 and a miserable 18-38 on the road. Martin also highlighted Seattle’s bullpen advantage and an offense that remains three games behind Houston in the AL West race. Those pitching, bullpen and lineup gaps justify laying the minus-one line instead of the full price.

Kenny G predicted a spike in George Kirby’s strikeouts against the White Sox and suggested targeting his K prop. Kirby is coming off six shutout innings of three-hit ball versus Texas and has logged back-to-back quality starts. He now faces a Chicago lineup that ranks 29th in batting average and slugging percentage and is battling injuries. With Seattle’s bullpen in solid shape, Kenny expects manager Scott Servais to let Kirby work deep and sees this as “a spot where this dude’s going to go out and try and put up a crazy amount of strikeouts.”

In the late West-Coast tilt, Drew is willing to lay the –138 on Seattle, projecting George Kirby to outduel Texas prospect Kumar Rocker in a series separated by just one game in the AL West standings. The overnight market shows only two books posting numbers, suggesting volatility once pitchers are confirmed, but Martin believes Safeco’s (now T-Mobile’s) spacious dimensions and Seattle’s deeper bullpen favor the M’s in a tight divisional race. He flagged the scheduling angle—Harry Potter Night often draws a packed crowd—and noted that Kirby’s strike-throwing profile traditionally plays well at home, where his WHIP is well under 1.10. The wager is Mariners moneyline, contingent on Kirby getting the start; Drew will reevaluate if rotations change.

Eric Lindquist advised climbing George Kirby’s strikeout ladder instead of playing the flat total. Texas’ projected lineup (Adolis Garcia, Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung, Jonah Heim, Joc Pederson) carries a 21.4% K-rate and just a 95 wRC+ versus right-handers, and they have to hit in spacious T-Mobile Park. Kirby’s command suppresses walks, so Lindquist expects him to work deep and rack up punch-outs. Because books often leave 30–40¢ gaps between each alt line, Lindquist prefers sprinkling quarter-unit plays one and two tiers above the posted total to maximize portfolio EV.

Scott Reichel laid the –145 with Seattle, arguing the franchise’s deadline acquisition of Josh Naylor signals a win-now push while the Angels slide back toward seller mode. He acknowledged George Kirby’s back-to-back four-earned clunkers but reminded listeners the right-hander allowed just eight earned in his five previous starts and owns superior raw stuff to Tyler Anderson. Anderson has been solid at home but sports four-plus runs allowed in five of his last eight overall and struggles away from Anaheim, indicating possible regression even in his own park. Reichel trusts Seattle’s deeper lineup to punish Anderson’s high contact rate and sees extra clubhouse motivation from the front office’s ‘we’re still going for it’ message.

The Bettor Mark said he would back Seattle at the current –150 number if he were forced to play the late-night game in Anaheim. His confidence rests on George Kirby’s recent form and the broader resurgence of the Mariners rotation, noting that Kirby and Bryan Woo once again look like future Cy Young candidates. Kirby’s elite strike-throwing profile, a 4.5% walk rate on the season, should play well against an Angels lineup striking out 25% of the time versus right-handers in July. Although Mark acknowledged Angel Stadium’s run-scoring environment and the 8.5 total suggest a potential shoot-out, he still believes Seattle is the correct side—he is simply passing because the price is a touch rich for his personal bankroll. Listeners looking for late action could lay the lumber with the Mariners or use them as a parlay anchor.

Rockford laid –120 with the Mariners in what he calls a true coin-flip matchup. Seattle is 6-1 in George Kirby’s last seven outings, and the right-hander’s Stuff+ metrics have jumped since early June. Rockford prefers Seattle’s bullpen—fifth in K-BB% since the All-Star break—over Milwaukee’s still-uneven relief corps. Offensively he grades the lineups as near-identical, so home park and late-inning trust become the tiebreakers. He priced Seattle –120 and would play them to –125.

Martin wants bettors on Seattle because Paul Skenes has been limited to 4–5 innings in his last two outings as Pittsburgh protects its prized rookie on a non-contending club. That hands a shaky Pirates bullpen plenty of work, and Pittsburgh owns a 12-29 road record. Meanwhile George Kirby has posted back-to-back starts of six innings, three hits, one earned run and sports a pristine 41:9 K:BB ratio. Seattle also owns a large recent-form lineup edge. Expect a short price due to Skenes’ name value, but Martin argues Kirby and the home split are worth betting.

Malcolm Bamford said he would play the full-game under in Friday’s Wrigley matinee. He trusts both starters, noting George Kirby has finally rounded into form with a 3.18 ERA in three June outings – all three finished below the total – while Matthew Boyd owns a 2.79 season ERA and an even better 2.25 mark in Chicago. Bamford added that Seattle’s offense has looked lifeless of late and that typical getaway-day bullpen shuffling plus potential Midwest wind should help keep runs down. He expects the number to open around 7.5 and wants the under anywhere seven or higher.

Drew Martin said George Kirby’s underlying metrics scream buy low and make Seattle a live first-five dog at +105. Although Kirby’s season ERA still sits north of 5.00, Martin highlighted the 27-year-old’s turn over the last three outings: 19 strikeouts against only 7 hits allowed and noticeably sharper command. Seattle also had Thursday off, giving its everyday bats a rest before the early Wrigley matinee. On the other side, 34-year-old lefty Matthew Boyd owns the prettier surface ERA (sub-3.00) but has seen both velocity and strikeout rate dip in his last two appearances. Because Chicago’s bullpen grades better, Martin limited exposure to the first five innings, confident Kirby can win the initial matchup while the Cubs’ late-inning edge never comes into play.

Kenny G said the plus-110 price on Cleveland is worth a sprinkle because George Kirby is in a classic let-down spot after the best start of his life. Kirby’s season line (1-3, 6.53 ERA) is still ugly despite that 14-strikeout gem against the Angels, and Kenny doubts the 37% whiff rate he showed in that outing is repeatable. Seattle’s bullpen has quietly slipped to a 3.96 ERA over the past month and now sits almost a full run worse than last season, so the late innings are no longer a safety net. On the other side, Tanner Bibee owns a respectable 3.81 ERA and just held Houston to two earned over 6.1 frames. Cleveland’s relief corps is merely “decent” compared with its 2024 dominance, but Kenny still trusts Emmanuel Clase and company more than the uneven Mariners pen. Offensively neither club scares anyone—Guardians are 23rd in runs, Mariners 20th in batting average—but Kenny expects Kirby’s command to wobble enough for Jose Ramirez and company to scrape across a few. He is passing on the low total of seven but leans Guardians moneyline as the only side with a smidge of value.

Guy Boston Sports said the best way to attack Mariners-Guardians is the FIRST-FIVE UNDER 4.5 runs (he paid –162 on ProfitX and would still take 4.0 elsewhere). He trusts George Kirby to look more like the ace who fanned 14 Angels with zero walks two starts ago—Kirby has trimmed the earned-runs column from five to six to two across his first three outings and still sports elite command (1.1 BB/9). On the other side, Tanner Bibee has quietly survived a brutal draw of Dodgers, Yankees and Astros, holding the latter two to three earned over 11 frames and carrying a 29 % whiff rate on the slider that should neutralize a Seattle lineup ranking bottom-10 in wRC+. Seattle has averaged just 4.1 runs at T-Mobile and Cleveland wins only 47 % of its road games, so the tout is avoiding a side and betting the early innings to stay quiet, even with stiff juice.

Collin Whitchurch played George Kirby under 0.5 walks at +160 (best price currently Bet365). Kirby logged zero walks in 14 of 33 starts last year (42%, implied +138) and faces a free-swinging Orioles lineup that owns the league’s fifth-lowest walk rate and fourth-highest strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching. Whitchurch attributes Kirby’s two-start blip (three total walks) to rust after shoulder inflammation and expects the pinpoint control version to resurface now that the shoulder is sound. With Baltimore eager to swing, he projects the true zero-walk probability north of 40% and loves the plus-money overlay.

Razzle is intrigued by George Kirby despite shaky form since coming off the IL. Kirby’s 5.5 K prop combined with Baltimore’s bottom-10 wRC+ against righties in May signals rebound potential. The Mariners right-hander still carries elite command (3.2% walk rate) and should eventually see his strikeouts climb back toward last season’s 24% mark. With ownership depressed by recent results, Razzle views Kirby as a classic leverage arm for single-entry lineups willing to stomach some volatility.

Mark said he wants to fade George Kirby at all costs and would take Baltimore at +126 despite the Orioles’ disappointing 22-36 record. Kirby owns an 11.42 ERA with just two 2025 starts, including a home outing of 5 IP, 7 H, 6 ER and nearly a 2.0 WHIP. T-Mobile Park’s pitcher-friendly environment and the 7.5 total normally scream under, but Mark trusts Baltimore’s chances to scratch out enough against Kirby’s current form and the Seattle bullpen.

Romanelli grabbed the Orioles moneyline largely because George Kirby still looks nowhere near 100 percent. Kirby surrendered 11 runs, three homers and 18 total base-runners in 8.2 innings since rejoining the big club, and Romanelli noted those blow-ups came against average offenses in Houston and Washington. Meanwhile, Tomoyuki Sugano rides three straight quality starts and should keep Baltimore in the game. With Seattle’s bullpen gassed after two lopsided losses and the O’s bats heating up after sweeping Chicago, Ron sees plus-money value backing the birds.