Martin wants bettors on Seattle because Paul Skenes has been limited to 4–5 innings in his last two outings as Pittsburgh protects its prized rookie on a non-contending club. That hands a shaky Pirates bullpen plenty of work, and Pittsburgh owns a 12-29 road record. Meanwhile George Kirby has posted back-to-back starts of six innings, three hits, one earned run and sports a pristine 41:9 K:BB ratio. Seattle also owns a large recent-form lineup edge. Expect a short price due to Skenes’ name value, but Martin argues Kirby and the home split are worth betting.

Malcolm Bamford said he would play the full-game under in Friday’s Wrigley matinee. He trusts both starters, noting George Kirby has finally rounded into form with a 3.18 ERA in three June outings – all three finished below the total – while Matthew Boyd owns a 2.79 season ERA and an even better 2.25 mark in Chicago. Bamford added that Seattle’s offense has looked lifeless of late and that typical getaway-day bullpen shuffling plus potential Midwest wind should help keep runs down. He expects the number to open around 7.5 and wants the under anywhere seven or higher.

Drew Martin said George Kirby’s underlying metrics scream buy low and make Seattle a live first-five dog at +105. Although Kirby’s season ERA still sits north of 5.00, Martin highlighted the 27-year-old’s turn over the last three outings: 19 strikeouts against only 7 hits allowed and noticeably sharper command. Seattle also had Thursday off, giving its everyday bats a rest before the early Wrigley matinee. On the other side, 34-year-old lefty Matthew Boyd owns the prettier surface ERA (sub-3.00) but has seen both velocity and strikeout rate dip in his last two appearances. Because Chicago’s bullpen grades better, Martin limited exposure to the first five innings, confident Kirby can win the initial matchup while the Cubs’ late-inning edge never comes into play.

Kenny G said the plus-110 price on Cleveland is worth a sprinkle because George Kirby is in a classic let-down spot after the best start of his life. Kirby’s season line (1-3, 6.53 ERA) is still ugly despite that 14-strikeout gem against the Angels, and Kenny doubts the 37% whiff rate he showed in that outing is repeatable. Seattle’s bullpen has quietly slipped to a 3.96 ERA over the past month and now sits almost a full run worse than last season, so the late innings are no longer a safety net. On the other side, Tanner Bibee owns a respectable 3.81 ERA and just held Houston to two earned over 6.1 frames. Cleveland’s relief corps is merely “decent” compared with its 2024 dominance, but Kenny still trusts Emmanuel Clase and company more than the uneven Mariners pen. Offensively neither club scares anyone—Guardians are 23rd in runs, Mariners 20th in batting average—but Kenny expects Kirby’s command to wobble enough for Jose Ramirez and company to scrape across a few. He is passing on the low total of seven but leans Guardians moneyline as the only side with a smidge of value.

Guy Boston Sports said the best way to attack Mariners-Guardians is the FIRST-FIVE UNDER 4.5 runs (he paid –162 on ProfitX and would still take 4.0 elsewhere). He trusts George Kirby to look more like the ace who fanned 14 Angels with zero walks two starts ago—Kirby has trimmed the earned-runs column from five to six to two across his first three outings and still sports elite command (1.1 BB/9). On the other side, Tanner Bibee has quietly survived a brutal draw of Dodgers, Yankees and Astros, holding the latter two to three earned over 11 frames and carrying a 29 % whiff rate on the slider that should neutralize a Seattle lineup ranking bottom-10 in wRC+. Seattle has averaged just 4.1 runs at T-Mobile and Cleveland wins only 47 % of its road games, so the tout is avoiding a side and betting the early innings to stay quiet, even with stiff juice.

Collin Whitchurch played George Kirby under 0.5 walks at +160 (best price currently Bet365). Kirby logged zero walks in 14 of 33 starts last year (42%, implied +138) and faces a free-swinging Orioles lineup that owns the league’s fifth-lowest walk rate and fourth-highest strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching. Whitchurch attributes Kirby’s two-start blip (three total walks) to rust after shoulder inflammation and expects the pinpoint control version to resurface now that the shoulder is sound. With Baltimore eager to swing, he projects the true zero-walk probability north of 40% and loves the plus-money overlay.

Razzle is intrigued by George Kirby despite shaky form since coming off the IL. Kirby’s 5.5 K prop combined with Baltimore’s bottom-10 wRC+ against righties in May signals rebound potential. The Mariners right-hander still carries elite command (3.2% walk rate) and should eventually see his strikeouts climb back toward last season’s 24% mark. With ownership depressed by recent results, Razzle views Kirby as a classic leverage arm for single-entry lineups willing to stomach some volatility.

Mark said he wants to fade George Kirby at all costs and would take Baltimore at +126 despite the Orioles’ disappointing 22-36 record. Kirby owns an 11.42 ERA with just two 2025 starts, including a home outing of 5 IP, 7 H, 6 ER and nearly a 2.0 WHIP. T-Mobile Park’s pitcher-friendly environment and the 7.5 total normally scream under, but Mark trusts Baltimore’s chances to scratch out enough against Kirby’s current form and the Seattle bullpen.

Romanelli grabbed the Orioles moneyline largely because George Kirby still looks nowhere near 100 percent. Kirby surrendered 11 runs, three homers and 18 total base-runners in 8.2 innings since rejoining the big club, and Romanelli noted those blow-ups came against average offenses in Houston and Washington. Meanwhile, Tomoyuki Sugano rides three straight quality starts and should keep Baltimore in the game. With Seattle’s bullpen gassed after two lopsided losses and the O’s bats heating up after sweeping Chicago, Ron sees plus-money value backing the birds.