Adam Rosenberg played Grant Holmes under 4.5 hits allowed at even money on Caesars. He joked about Holmes’s ‘insurrectionist’ beard but likes the actual underlying metrics: strong SIERRA, elite ground-ball rate and above-average strikeout percentage. Cincinnati’s last 30 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching produce an anemic wOBA, with six hitters batting .231 or worse. Because Chris Sale worked 6.2 innings Tuesday, Atlanta’s bullpen is rested, so manager Brian Snitker can hook Holmes early—important since Holmes has topped 17.5 outs only once in his last five home starts. Rosenberg noted Holmes has given up 5+ hits just twice in his last 10 outings (once this year at Arizona, once last August) and has not surrendered more than four hits at Truist Park since August against Miami. With even-money juice and a pitcher profile built to limit contact, Rosenberg labeled it his second Wednesday prop.