Jay Croucher said the best way to attack Friday’s NLCS-rematch is to take the Mets on the +1.5 run line. His reasoning started with the pitching mismatch: Griffin Canning is 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA and just held the Yankees to 2 ER over 5.1 innings, while Clayton Kershaw looked nowhere near vintage form in his season debut (11.25 ERA after surrendering 5 ER in 4 IP to the Angels). Croucher noted that the Dodgers have won 19 of 30 following a win, but the +1.5 cushion neutralizes that trend, especially with New York’s pen rested after a Thursday off-day. The model the NBC Sports Bet staff runs made the Mets a slight favorite on a neutral field, giving the +1.5 a 5% edge over fair price. Citi Field’s neutral run-scoring environment and the Mets’ above-average defensive efficiency also factor into the play.

Johnny Venezia called Griffin Canning one of the most reliable arms still on waivers. Canning owns a 2.36 ERA, a 42:16 K:BB in 42 innings, and is 5-1 for a New York Mets club that has been much better than expected. Venezia emphasized Canning’s floor: only four earned runs allowed over his last five starts and just one outing with more than one run surrendered since April (a four-run game). Managers can pencil him in for five to six innings of two or fewer runs nearly every time out, plus a real chance at a win. Still available in 38 percent of leagues, Venezia projected Canning to finish with 13–14 victories if this form holds, making him a rare consistent producer to pluck off the wire.

Derek Carty recommended betting Griffin Canning UNDER 4.5 strikeouts at –160. THE BAT X projects only 3.7 Ks (68% hit rate, +$16.83 EV) because: 1) Canning’s current 9.00 K/9 outpaces his true-talent 8.15 K/9 by 0.85, indicating luck that should regress, 2) Chase Field suppresses punch-outs (27th in MLB for Ks), and 3) Arizona’s lineup owns the league’s fourth-lowest whiff rate versus righties.

Zarpentine advised grabbing Griffin Canning to record the win at +190. The Mets are 5-0 in Canning’s starts this season, and the right-hander personally owns four straight winning decisions while allowing one run or fewer in three consecutive outings. Arizona’s roster is just 7-for-40 (.175) against him lifetime, offering little evidence they can break that groove. With the Mets dropping four of five, the handicapper sees a “get-right spot” where New York’s bullpen is rested and likely to protect any lead Canning hands over after the sixth inning.

Kelly Kirby called Griffin Canning her favorite pitching pickup of the week, surprised he’s rostered in only 37 % of leagues. Since landing with the Mets he owns a 2.61 ERA and solid strikeout rate, and every estimator—FIP 3.25, xFIP 3.56, xERA 3.92, Sierra 3.91—sits within half a run, suggesting no immediate blow-up. The downside is a 1.40 WHIP born from occasional wildness, so Kirby views him as a matchup streamer: start versus offenses like the Marlins and Rockies, sit against the Yankees or Dodgers. New York’s improved lineup and bullpen give him credible win equity, making him a useful short-term fix in 12-team formats that rotate starters. Kirby added that the emotional boost of pitching for a contender instead of the Angels can’t be ignored when speculating on an in-season breakout.

Adam Pelletier advised taking Griffin Canning UNDER 15.5 outs recorded (essentially betting he fails to complete six innings) at even money. Pelletier noted that Canning has been stretched for high pitch counts recently but still is not missing bats—his strikeout rate sits below league average—making it tough for him to record quick outs. Washington’s lineup is a particularly bad matchup for a low-whiff pitcher; the Nationals rank near the bottom of MLB in strikeout percentage and have been swinging the bats much better of late, as evidenced by Sunday’s late offensive explosion. Pelletier added that Saturday’s rain-delay game forced some funky bullpen usage for L.A., meaning manager Ron Washington is likely to be cautious with Canning’s workload and bridge to the pen once he gets through five frames. All told, Pelletier expects Canning to throw roughly 80–85 pitches and exit in the fifth, making the under 15.5 outs a solid plus-EV play.

Ryan Wormeli tagged Griffin Canning as a worthwhile streamer thanks to a two-start week against the Nationals and Cardinals. Through 26 innings Canning owns a 3.12 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and exactly a strikeout per frame, numbers Wormeli thinks can improve versus Washington (bottom-10 wOBA vs righties) and a St. Louis lineup that has struggled to score all April. Canning’s slider is generating a 37% whiff rate and his 11% swinging-strike rate supports continued punch-outs. Widely available on all three major platforms (under 30% rostered everywhere), Wormeli believes Canning can deliver 12-14 Ks and solid ratios in weekly leagues that lock lineups on Monday.

Todd Zola said Griffin Canning is a sneaky streaming option for Tuesday because the right‑hander has quietly logged a solid first month (21 strikeouts in 21 innings) despite some wildness (10 walks). Canning draws a Philadelphia lineup that owns one of the league’s worst road splits and will be trading Citizens Bank Park for a far less hitter‑friendly venue. With the Phillies’ bats muted away from home and Canning’s 2.7% rostership in ESPN leagues, Zola views him as a low‑cost add who can deliver strikeouts and a shot at a win.

Sean Zerillo advised fading Griffin Canning, suggesting his initial strong outings for the Mets are unsustainable. Zerillo highlighted Canning's metrics, including an 88 Stuff+ rating, an 81 Pitching+ rating, and lowered velocity, indicating below-average performance and replacement-level talent. Zerillo noted that while the Mets' pitching development often optimizes pitchers, Canning has only succeeded by eliminating the curveball and heavily increasing slider usage to 44%. Despite the slider being an effective pitch, there's reportedly little behind it, and Canning projects poorly with an expected FIP between 4.5 and 4.8. Therefore, Zerillo sees this matchup as an ideal opportunity to fade a pitcher whose surface-level success has masked concerning underlying indicators.

Brian Howard is skeptical about Griffin Canning's sustainability despite his superficially solid start (2.79 ERA in his first two games). Howard highlighted serious underlying red flags, including Canning’s high WHIP (1.34), limited innings pitched (just 9.2 innings over two starts), and a poor historical track record. He positioned this matchup as a potential fade spot for the heavily favored Mets, suggesting the Athletics could provide sneaky value as a live underdog at home.

Dylan Rockford confidently chose the Mets money line (-124) as his lock play. His model has the Mets priced significantly higher (-140), creating value. Griffin Canning, despite historical volatility, showed promise in his first start. Rockford also mentioned the Mets' bullpen excellence (ranked second-best currently), solid recent offensive momentum, and a revenge factor against Blue Jays pitcher Chris Bassitt, who previously pitched for New York. Given these multiple favorable factors, Rockford believes Mets have a strong edge and clear winning path at the current odds.

Dan Marcus considers Griffin Canning an intriguing bargain-priced DFS pitcher option at $6,800 on DraftKings due to recent adjustments. Canning refined his pitching arsenal with the Mets in the offseason and showed encouraging signs in a solid debut to the 2025 MLB season, making him a potentially strong value play on Saturday's slate.

With few attractive cheap pitching options on the slate, Dan Marcus identified Griffin Canning ($6,800) as an appealing low-priced arm. Marcus cites Canning's work refining his arsenal with the Mets this offseason, paired with a solid debut to the 2025 campaign. Canning stands out among bargain arms as a potential value play in DraftKings contests.

Greg Peterson picks the Mets -122 and the over at 7.5 runs, given Griffin Canning's diminishing strikeout ability (career-low 6.8 K/9 last year, 5.19 ERA, and 1.6 HR/9). He’ll pitch against ex-teammate Chris Bassitt, who's been steady (3.82 ERA) since joining Toronto but faces the challenge of his team's shaky bullpen, the worst in the AL last year (4.82 ERA) and even worse to start this season (5.59 ERA). The Mets lineup, while absent Juan Soto this year, was still top-10 in runs per game during last season, setting up a potential high-scoring matchup.

Daniel Lewis pointed out a strong strikeout prop opportunity for Griffin Canning, debuting for the Mets against the Astros. Despite Canning's inflated ERA and WHIP in 2024, he delivered back-to-back 130-strikeout seasons and hit a career-best 2.0 K/BB rate last year with the Angels. Ending the prior season, Canning cleared 3.5 strikeouts in six of his last seven starts, averaging four per game in September. The Astros have struggled with strikeouts early this season, registering 17 Ks through their first two games (10th highest in MLB). The SportsLine model currently projects Canning for 4.8 strikeouts, assigning a high confidence rating of 4.5 to his over 3.5 strikeout prop.

Scott Reichel strongly advises betting against Mets pitcher Griffin Canning, emphasizing his brutal 0-10 road record and 6.06 ERA across away games last season. He notes specifically Canning's extensive poor track record against Houston, allowing Astros hitters to bat .307 with a .365 on-base percentage over 96 plate appearances. While Spencer Arrighetti of Houston previously had volatility, the Astros clearly have a significant edge both on the mound and offensively against someone they've repeatedly performed well against. Scott firmly supports playing Houston at -120/-125, highlighting the mismatch presented by Canning’s severe road deficiencies.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the New York Mets money line primarily due to Griffin Canning's promising recent performance during spring training, despite his historically mixed MLB results. They noted encouraging segments of performance springboard potential after a rough prior season (6-13 record in 2024), believing he's poised to improve towards a solid .500 winning percentage with a significantly reduced ERA. Additionally, the Mets bullpen delivered fantastic performances early in this series, supporting the pick and providing confidence in their ability to win the finale matchup against Houston.