Guy Boston Sports pivoted from yesterday’s 2-1 snoozer and is back on the FULL-GAME OVER in Yankees–Red Sox, calling it a "fade Hunter Dobbins" spot. He doubts the rookie can repeat last week’s adrenaline-fueled 11–7 upset, pointing to prior minor-league tape that showed shaky command. New York owns one of MLB’s best offenses (123 wRC+ vs RHP) and rarely forgives bulletin-board material—Dobbins publicly chirped them after the win. Even with wind blowing in at Fenway, the tout believes both lineups have "runs bottled up": Boston’s bats have "found something" over the past week, and the short porch inflated only two of the seven homers in the first meeting, so run creation was not solely park-fluke. He likes Yankees TEAM TOTAL OVER as a secondary play and will attack Dobbins via hits-allowed props, but the primary wager is the game over 9 (playable to 9.5) on the assumption that New York cracks the rookie early and Boston’s revived offense contributes late.

Mike Maher singled out Hunter Dobbins as a priority waiver add for anyone chasing innings this week. The rookie right-hander gets two home turns—first against the Mets and then the Orioles—giving managers a rare shot at 12-plus innings from a single pickup. Dobbins owns a 3.90 ERA through 27.2 frames, but every major estimator (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) clocks in roughly a half-run lower. His 23 strikeouts translate to a 19.3 % K-rate with an 11.8 % swinging-strike rate, numbers Maher calls “cromulent” for a back-end streamer. While Dobbins won’t light the world on fire, the combination of acceptable whiffs, pitcher-friendly Fenway weather and two tries this scoring period makes him an easy plug-and-play in 12-teamers. Maher suggests cutting bait afterward if Boston shuffles the rotation or if tougher matchups loom.

Kyle Purviance circled Hunter Dobbins’ strikeout prop, recommending 6+ Ks at +195 and 7+ at 4-to-1 against a Tigers lineup that strikes out 27 % of the time versus right-handers (24th in contact rate). Dobbins has cleared 5 strikeouts in three of four starts, including six against Kansas City—MLB’s second-toughest team to K. Purviance acknowledged pitch-count volatility (range 79-93 pitches) but trusts Dobbins’ 32 % whiff rate on his sweeper to exploit Detroit’s bottom-five chase discipline. He dismissed the low 7.0 game total, arguing that even a pitcher’s duel can feature punch-outs, and advised bettors to ladder rather than play the flat 5.5 at juiced odds.

Using THE BAT X model, Derek Carty projects only a 32% strikeout rate for Hunter Dobbins and recommends UNDER 4.5 Ks at -115. A 12.7‑mph breeze out to left boosts run expectancy, and the rookie has generated just a 20% whiff rate in Triple‑A. The projection assigns a 68% success probability, translating to a $31.37 expected value per $100 stake.

Zola anticipates Boston recalling Hunter Dobbins for Friday and recommends deploying him in AL‑only and 15‑team mixed formats. Dobbins struck out five over five scoreless innings in an earlier spot start and now faces a White Sox lineup producing the second‑fewest runs in baseball while striking out 24% of the time. Even with Dobbins scuffling at Triple‑A Worcester (6.11 ERA), Zola believes the matchup and Fenway’s cool April weather make him a sneaky streaming play with modest strikeout upside.