Mark Zinno advised taking the Tigers on the money-line tonight in Detroit, arguing that the starting-pitching matchup finally tilts in their favor. Zinno rattled off a laundry list of ugly underlying numbers for Toronto’s spot starter Bowden Francis – a .311 xBA (bottom 5% of MLB), .383 xwOBA (bottom 5%), bottom-5 hard-hit rate and an xERA north of 6.0. By contrast, Zinno noted that Jack Flaherty, while sporting a 5.57 road ERA and allowing at least four earned in three straight, is still the more talented arm and is overdue for positive regression after Detroit has dropped six consecutive Flaherty starts. He also highlighted a rest advantage (Tigers were idle Thursday while the Jays played) that often shows up on Friday slates. Zinno’s bottom line: fade Francis’s awful peripherals and back Flaherty to bounce back with a rested Detroit lineup.

Calling Jack Flaherty’s 2024 resurgence a mirage, Savio is fading the right-hander by taking Blue Jays ML at ‑140. Flaherty owns a 1-5 record, 4.61 ERA, and only one quality start in 2025; he is 0-2 with a 9.35 ERA in two May outings and was rocked for a 7.36 ERA in last year’s postseason. Meanwhile Toronto’s offense has caught fire, slashing .309 with a .512 slugging percentage over the past week and winning five of seven. Savio believes Flaherty’s diminished stuff will be exposed again by a red-hot Jays lineup, making Toronto the play despite the juiced price.

Tokyo Brandon advised taking Jack Flaherty "to record a win" at +125 against the Angels. He grades Flaherty as the 9th-best starter on a 1-30 curve while Kyle Hendricks ranks 27th with a brutal –12 K-BB differential, 6.65 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Detroit’s lineup ranks 10th and faces an Angels offense he slots 29th and now missing Mike Trout, producing little besides solo homers. Bullpen gap is another edge: Tigers 11th versus Angels 20th, so Brandon expects Detroit to protect a lead once Flaherty exits. He projects Flaherty for 16.7 outs (nearly six innings), satisfying the five-inning requirement for a win, trusts Detroit to be ahead when he leaves, and sees little chance L.A.’s pen mounts a comeback. Given all three conditions for a pitcher win are lined up, Brandon views the plus-money prop as the best way to extract value from the Tigers’ favorite status.

Adam Pelletier advised betting Jack Flaherty UNDER 17.5 outs recorded at +143. Pelletier argued Flaherty looks banged-up and has cleared 17.5 outs only twice in his last 10 outings. On the road he owns a 5.28 FIP, a noticeably lower strike-out rate, and a higher walk rate, making it unlikely he lasts six full innings. Houston’s lineup has heated up over the past two weeks (4th-lowest K-rate, 116 WRC+, at least 10 hits in four of their last six home games), so constant traffic should push Flaherty’s pitch count. Detroit’s rested bullpen and Reese Olson starting the next day further reduce any incentive for A.J. Hinch to let Flaherty work deep. Pelletier labeled the plus money as ‘bonkers’ and suggested playing it to win one unit.

Chris Morgan recommended Jack Flaherty as a top pitching play at $9,600. Flaherty carries a 2.63 ERA, an eye-popping 11.20 K/9, and the momentum of last year’s World Series run with Los Angeles before re-signing with Detroit. Morgan pointed out that Houston’s lineup remains right-handed and underperforming—still near the bottom of MLB in scoring despite a Sunday outburst versus Kris Bubic. With no lefty platoon advantage for the Astros and Flaherty’s swing-and-miss stuff trending up, Morgan expects another quality start with strikeout bonus potential.

Greg Peterson said he plans to attack Monday’s card by getting some form of exposure to the Tigers—either the straight moneyline at –108/–110 or the +145 to +150 run line—because Jack Flaherty is simply the better arm in this matchup. Since coming over to Detroit he has been lights-out: in 23 Tiger starts he sports roughly a 10.2 K/9 to 1.9 BB/9 split and a 2.89ish FIP, numbers Peterson called “rocking and rolling.” Ronel Blanco, meanwhile, is finally paying for last year’s good fortune; his 5.01 ERA is backed by a 4.53 FIP, 4.5 walks per nine, and he has worked more than five innings only once all season, putting additional strain on Houston’s bullpen. That pen is solid, but Peterson argues it cannot mask a lineup that simply is not hitting—Yordan Alvarez has only three homers with a .315 OBP, Isak Paredes is the team’s lone bright spot, and Christian Walker plus Yainer Diaz are flirting with the Mendoza line. Detroit’s offense has quietly taken a step forward: Spencer Torkelson owns a .350-plus OBP with eight bombs, Zach McKinstry is over .400, and even Javier Baez and rookie catcher Dillon Dingler are above .285. Factor in a Tiger bullpen that has been top-five in ERA since the 2024 All-Star break (John Brebbia, Tyler Holton, Will Vest, Tommy Kahnle) and Peterson feels comfortable laying up to –108 on the moneyline or grabbing +145 or better on the –1.5 run line.

Scott Reichel made Detroit –110 his lock, pricing the Tigers at –125 because Jack Flaherty is simply the superior arm to Ronel Blanco. Flaherty’s strikeout stuff has returned (10.8 K/9) and he already blanked Houston in Minute Maid during last year’s postseason run, so the environment holds no fear. Blanco, meanwhile, sports a 5.01 ERA, an 11% walk rate and has been tagged for a .444 slugging percentage the second time through the order. Reichel pointed to Houston’s sputtering offense—Yordan Alvarez remains "invisible" and the Astros are 9-1 to the under in their last ten—as further evidence the defending champs do not deserve home-favorite status. Detroit’s bullpen sits top-10 in FIP, and the club is riding an 8-3 surge that includes series wins over the Mets and Guardians. Add in Houston’s mediocre 6-8 home record and Reichel believes the wrong team is laying juice.

Todd Zola urged fantasy managers to avoid Jack Flaherty on Tuesday. The Tigers right‑hander owns a 10.3% walk rate and has yet to finish six innings in any of his four starts, driving up pitch counts and capping his fantasy value. The opponent compounds the concern: San Diego ranks among the most patient lineups in baseball and pairs that discipline with a low strikeout percentage. Zola sees too much early‑week downside to justify taking the risk in weekly formats.

Kyle Purviance plans to take Jack Flaherty under on strikeouts if books open at 5.5 or higher. He argues that San Diego’s projected lineup is loaded with right‑handed bats who crush fastballs and sliders—the two pitches Flaherty throws nearly 75% of the time—and that several hitters (Tatis, Machado, Cronenworth, Bogarts) carry sub‑20% strikeout rates against those offerings. Purviance added that Detroit has allowed Flaherty to work deep only when his pitch count is low; if the Padres grind out early counts, Flaherty could exit before the sixth, capping his K ceiling. Anything north of 5 K’s is ‘too rich’ given San Diego’s contact profile and their top‑five chase‑rate discipline in April.

Zola urged fantasy managers to bench Jack Flaherty on Monday. Flaherty’s 10.3% walk rate has kept him from recording six full innings in any of his four starts, inflating pitch counts and capping his win potential. He now faces a patient Padres offense that owns one of MLB’s lowest strikeout rates, meaning fewer free whiffs to offset the walks. Early‑week risk isn’t worth the potential ratios hit, especially in head‑to‑head leagues.

Kenny G expresses optimism regarding backing Detroit, primarily drawn by Jack Flaherty's impressive start to the season (1-0, 1.62 ERA), most notably a recent strong performance against the Yankees with zero runs and nine strikeouts. Kenny noted some bullpen concerns for Detroit (3.93 ERA), but sees potential with the offense improving significantly, fresh off a nine-run outburst in game one versus Milwaukee. While recognizing sustainability as a concern, Kenny still identifies value in backing Detroit, given Flaherty's strong form and recent offensive uptick.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommends taking the Detroit Tigers money line against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Tigers enter this contest in excellent form, winning seven of their past nine games. They have also had the Brewers' number historically, winning 6 out of the past 10 matchups. Detroit has been strong offensively, particularly against right-handed pitchers, which will challenge Milwaukee's Quinn Priester, who has struggled, surrendering six runs in his last two outings. Tigers' starter Jack Flaherty has been consistent and effective this season, allowing only three runs total across his appearances, and historically performs well against Milwaukee, giving up just five runs in his last three starts against them. With Milwaukee trending downward, losing three of their last four games, Detroit holds decisive momentum and pitching advantages for this pick.

Kenny G recommended betting the Tigers as an underdog (+122), spotlighting Jack Flaherty's impressive start to the season as a key reason. Flaherty carries a strong 2.38 ERA, highlighted by dominant outings against quality opponents like the Dodgers and White Sox, combining to allow just five hits and two earned runs in over 11 innings pitched. Kenny praised Flaherty's ability to perform against tougher offenses, expecting him to succeed against the Yankees' currently cold bats at home, where Detroit remains undefeated early in the season.

Peter Dewey recommended betting the under on Jack Flaherty's hits allowed prop of 4.5. Flaherty has allowed just six hits across 11.1 innings this season, maintaining a stellar 0.88 WHIP. Dewey highlighted the Yankees' recent challenges offensively, emphasizing their mere 13 hits and two runs scored across the first two games of this series. Additionally, he referenced Flaherty's impressive past performance, where last season he gave up only 135 hits across 162 innings.

Greg Peterson advises betting the over 7 runs total in Yankees vs Tigers based on potent hitting and vulnerable pitching. The Yankees have been explosive offensively, averaging 7.1 runs per game and 2.3 homers per contest, despite a shutout yesterday. Tigers starter Jack Flaherty is vulnerable, with a 4.36 ERA in recent starts and notably allowing over 1.6 HR/9 innings for the Dodgers and Tigers. Yankees' Max Fried may look good with a 2.61 ERA but has benefited from four unearned runs skewing his numbers. Peterson emphasizes this misleading factor, noticing Fried's underlying FIP (3.84) is significantly higher than the posted ERA. Given these offensive fireworks and suspect starting pitching matchups, he projects a higher-scoring outcome at 7.8 runs, providing clear over value at 7.

Chris Welsh enthusiastically backed Jack Flaherty's betting prop for outs recorded against the Marlins, expecting Flaherty to go at least six innings after consistently hitting that benchmark previously. Although Welsh acknowledged the betting price was somewhat juiced at -150, he asserted confidence in Flaherty comfortably reaching six innings against a favorable matchup. Welsh particularly called out Flaherty's strong historical performance in consistently pitching deep into games and viewed the Marlins lineup as an ideal situation for this wager.

Mike Ianniello expressed strong confidence in pitcher Jack Flaherty, highlighting him as a favorite pitcher to support due to a high strikeout rate. Flaherty's resurgence following past injury issues was underscored by his league third-best 10.78 K/9 rate last season. Ianniello particularly emphasized Flaherty's excellent curveball, which generated a 43.6% whiff rate, as well as his effectiveness in pounding the strike zone with his fastball. These strengths create considerable betting value for Flaherty against a weak White Sox lineup.

Tokyo Brandon identified Jack Flaherty's strikeout prop of 4.5 strikeouts (available on DraftKings) as significantly undervalued, strongly recommending betting the over. Brandon modeled Flaherty for approximately 5.36 strikeouts against the Dodgers in this matchup—well above the listed line—and cited that historically Flaherty has averaged 6.34 strikeouts per start against these Dodgers hitters specifically. Although Brandon still expects Los Angeles to win and Flaherty to concede some runs, he sees considerable betting value in Flaherty surpassing the modest 4.5 strikeout line and made this his second pick for the game.

Brian Howard disagreed strongly with any consideration toward Jack Flaherty as a viable underdog bet against the Dodgers. Howard pointed out that Flaherty's perceived pedigree is overshadowed by repeatedly being listed as a large underdog, indicating limited confidence from sportsbooks. Considering Detroit's weak offensive lineup, he sees virtually no path for the Tigers to win outside of an exceptional Flaherty outing. With Yamamoto's elite stuff for the Dodgers, Howard strongly discouraged taking a chance with Flaherty even at the large plus money odds.

Rob Donaldson prefers betting on Detroit at plus 1.5 runs for three units, projecting a potentially close contest or outright Tigers upset. Despite Yoshinobu Yamamoto's talent and the Dodgers' overall strength, Donaldson insists Jack Flaherty has the capability to outduel star-level opposing starters on the right day. Donaldson emphasizes MLB betting value lies in situations like this, where powerhouse teams still lose 30-35% of games. Additionally, he recommends a smaller one-unit wager on Detroit plus-one, underscoring his confidence Detroit remains highly competitive.