Eric Lindquist said Jackson Holliday’s home-run prop is worth an auto-bet at +350 or better given Monday’s freakish hitting conditions in St. Petersburg. Weather models show 93°F with 65-75 % humidity inside an opened Tropicana Field roof, effectively turning the park into a launching pad. Lindquist highlighted Ryan Pepiot’s 17° average allowed launch angle at Triple-A and the fact the Rays right-hander relies heavily on elevated four-seamers—exactly the pitch profile Holliday punishes (45 % hard-hit rate vs high heaters in Double-A/Triple-A data). With warm, moisture-laden air dramatically boosting carry and Baltimore’s rookie batting from the left side against Pepiot, Lindquist views any +350 or longer number as a clear positive-EV swing for bettors hunting long-ball tickets.

John Venezia said Jackson Holliday should not be sitting on any waiver wire. Holliday is still available in roughly 27% of Yahoo leagues even though he has caught fire in May, slashing .287/.345/.474 with 5 home runs, 16 RBI, and an 819 OPS. Venezia pointed to Holliday’s 326 BABIP and 118 WRC+ as proof the underlying skills are legit rather than fluky. The former 1.1 pick also benefits from hitting in a loaded Orioles lineup that should offer plenty of run-production opportunities. Venezia views Holliday as a long-term fantasy cornerstone who is already producing and needs to be rostered everywhere right now.

It's The Final Round backed Jackson Holliday in virtually every standard prop category (hits, total bases, Hits+Runs+RBI) against George Kirby. Kirby has made only two starts and has been shelled in both: 8.2 IP, 13 H, 11 ER, 3 HR, 1.85 WHIP. Left-handed hitters in particular are tearing him up at a .348 clip. Holliday, a lefty, is batting .288 versus right-handers on the season and an even hotter .320 over the last week. Recent prop results via Outlier: hits over 8/10, total bases over 1.5 in 4/6, Hits+Runs+RBI over 1.5 in 7/10. The tout suggested taking any of those overs or parlaying a basic "to record a hit" with another favorite because Kirby’s inability to miss barrels from either side of the dish makes Holliday one of the slate’s safest floor/ceiling combos.

Shubham Soni backed Jackson Holliday to leave the yard at +600 in Milwaukee. He cited the rookie’s Statcast resume—91.1 mph average exit velocity and a 47.7% hard-hit rate—on top of a .272 average with six homers and 18 RBI. Soni argued those underlying numbers show Holliday consistently barrels baseballs even if the box-score power has been modest. Facing a Brewers staff that has surrendered above-league-average fly-ball contact, Soni believes one well-struck swing can cash the long odds.

Donaldson bet Jackson Holliday over 1.5 total bases at plus money (three units). He expects Camden’s hitter-friendly conditions and Chris Paddack’s straight four-seamer to play into Holliday’s gap-to-gap approach. The rookie left-hander owns a 44% hard-hit rate against right-handers and has already stacked nine extra-base hits in his first 60 MLB plate appearances. Donaldson sees multiple avenues—double in the alley, single and a steal, or a pull-side homer—for Holliday to cash this ladder play.

Mike Maher cautioned managers not to overreact to Jackson Holliday’s recent hot streak, ranking him only around 21st among second basemen for the remainder of 2024 and preferring to use him as a middle-infield slot in standard leagues. Maher conceded the .387/.457/.581 run over 11 games is encouraging, but believes Holliday will be ‘a better major-league player than fantasy asset in the short term’. Key concerns: he still sits versus most left-handers (three of the last four lefty starters), has yet to attempt a steal despite 89th-percentile sprint speed, and his barrel plus hard-hit rates are down from 2023. Maher also noted the Orioles’ coaching staff appears hesitant to let their youngsters run or hit atop the order consistently. With expected batting average (xBA .262) merely league-average and limited category juice beyond runs, Maher advised holding Holliday as a depth piece, pointing out he originally had him outside the top-30 at the position and only nudged him into the low-20s after the recent surge. Long-term outlook remains bright, but Maher believes fantasy gamers are at least a year early on counting on premium production.

Ryan Wormeli said Jackson Holliday is finally making ‘the leap’ and belongs in the mid-teens among fantasy second basemen right now. Over his last 11 games before Thursday, Holliday slashed .387/.457/.581 (1.038 OPS) and was rewarded with a move to the No. 2 spot in the Orioles’ order. Wormeli highlighted several indicators of a real skills growth: the swinging-strike rate has cratered to 8.1% from 13% last year, overall K-rate is down nearly five points, and his expected batting average (.262) essentially matches the actual .263—signs the contact uptick is earned. Although his barrel and hard-hit rates are slightly lower than 2023, Wormeli credited a shorter swing and the removal of a leg kick— tweaks likely guided by father Matt Holliday— for all-fields line-drive contact. He also expects volume to hold because Holliday’s defense ‘looks night-and-day better,’ making benchings less likely once Brandon Hyde is forced to give him everyday reps. Wormeli admitted the lack of steals (89th-percentile sprint speed but no green light yet) caps immediate ceiling, yet he still projects Holliday for useful average, runs and double-digit homers the rest of 2024, urging managers in 12-team formats to start him confidently at 2B.

Chris Welsh strongly advised selling Jackson Holliday after a superficially hot start, noting severe underlying red flags. Even though Holliday is hitting above .300 in April, his expected batting average is under .200, coupled with a declining hard-hit rate and concerning 40% strikeout rate. Welsh also observed Holliday's bat speed dropping by one mile per hour while becoming shorter at the same time, revealing inefficient mechanics. He recommended proactively trading Holliday for less-heralded assets experiencing temporary downturns, such as Jeremy Pena or Xavier Edwards.

Chris Morgan identified Jackson Holliday as a DFS value play and excellent buy-low candidate following his poor age-20 season (.under Mendoza Line, 5 HR in 60 GP). Morgan highlighted Holliday's pedigree—being the first-overall pick—as reason to remain optimistic. He specifically mentioned facing veteran righty Chris Bassitt, who notably struggled at home with a 4.56 ERA, allowing left-handed hitters to slash .305 against him last year. Holliday's lefty bat sets him up favorably for an ideal DFS situation to exploit matchup advantages and drive value.