Joe Orrico advised buying Jacob deGrom at a notable discount despite early-season struggles. deGrom has seen concerning trends so far in 2025, posting an ERA over 4.00, reduced strikeouts per inning, an increased walk rate approaching 10%, and a significant velocity dip, down about a mile per hour on both his fastball and slider. Orrico acknowledged the fears related to injury history but advocated patience, citing the small sample of only 14 innings pitched so far. He suggested deGrom is adjusting to pitching at 96 mph rather than the consistent 98-99 mph, and noted deGrom's increased use of changeups may reflect a new approach. Orrico concluded that early-season struggles frequently precede bounce-backs, referencing Blake Snell's Cy Young recovery from a slow start as an analogy to underscore his point.

Dan Marcus highlighted Jacob deGrom as the top DFS pitching option on Saturday night's slate, emphasizing his elite skill level despite workload concerns. deGrom pitched just 73 pitches and five innings in his first start of the season, and similar limitations might persist. Still, given his clear talent superiority, Marcus says the relatively low DraftKings price tag of $9,000 makes deGrom an attractive DFS investment regardless of potential pitch-count limitations.

Dan Marcus is optimistic about Jacob deGrom's DFS value at a relatively low price of $9,000. While deGrom only threw 73 pitches and lasted five innings in his first appearance of the season, his elite skillset still makes him a strong DFS option. Despite uncertainty around increased pitch count or innings in his upcoming start, Marcus emphasizes deGrom's skill level and depressed price, making the right-hander worth targeting as a top pitcher option in DraftKings tournaments.

Chris Welsh analyzed Jacob deGrom’s recent start as extremely encouraging, emphasizing his notable shift toward heavy slider usage (40% usage) and changeup deployment early in at-bats. Despite minimal strikeouts early in the game, Welsh noticed how deGrom set hitters up through changeups, leading to more whiffs and strikeouts later. deGrom finished with six Ks in five scoreless innings, with his slider achieving an impressive 50% whiff rate. Welsh described this adjusted approach positively, projecting higher strikeout numbers and recommending careful monitoring for betting strikeout props and fantasy matchups.

Joe Orrico is strongly recommending Jacob deGrom as a high-value Cy Young candidate at +1400 odds. He explained that despite recent injury concerns, deGrom now has a brand new UCL from Tommy John surgery and fewer career innings pitched compared to others his age. Orrico referenced Justin Verlander as a notable precedent, who returned from Tommy John to post a career-best season. He expects deGrom to avoid max velocity, sitting instead at 95-96 mph, and highlighted the Rangers' smarter approach to managing his innings. Even with limited starts bringing him to around 150 innings, Orrico believes it is plenty enough in the current MLB climate for deGrom's elite skillset to earn the Cy Young consideration.

Sean Zerillo endorses Jacob deGrom as a high-upside bet at 4 to 1 odds to lead MLB in strikeouts, despite being highly injury prone. Zerillo incorporates injuries into his modeling and asserts that even if deGrom has a high (70%) injury risk, he's still mathematically a decent value at current odds. DeGrom offers significant ceiling potential, making him an intriguing long-shot given his elite strikeout rate and dominance when healthy.

Millz Young sees Jacob deGrom as a strong over candidate for his strikeout prop (5.5). Despite a slow start this season, Millz believes this matchup will see deGrom return to form, anticipating him pitching deep into the seventh or eighth innings and comfortably surpassing seven strikeouts.

Derek Farnsworth praised Jacob deGrom as a premium DFS play due to his dominant statistical profile (1.25 xERA, 2.74 SIERA, 31% K rate) and advantageous matchup. The Mariners offense has struggled notably against right-handed pitching (.294 wOBA), making them vulnerable versus elite pitchers. With Seattle projected for a paltry 3.07 runs, deGrom's immense strikeout potential and pristine metrics provide enormous upside, justifying inclusion in fantasy baseball contests despite high DFS pricing.

Scott Reichel advocates betting the Rangers-Mariners game under a low 6.5 or 7 runs, emphasizing both teams' struggling offenses and the elite pitching matchup of Jacob deGrom versus Bryce Miller. He underscored Miller's consistently strong performances at home year over year and anticipates at least five scoreless innings from deGrom. Although cautioning that Texas has been oddly inefficient offensively despite their strong win-loss record, and the Mariners remain poor hitters overall, Reichel feels very comfortable backing this low-scoring affair. He also highlighting possible conservative bench management with deGrom early in the year, potentially limiting Seattle's scoring opportunities even further.

Dylan Rockford recommended backing the Rangers at minus 122, believing the line undervalues Jacob deGrom significantly. Dylan made the line closer to minus 140, highlighting that Bryce Miller has not earned his current market respect, having struggled in both starts this season, allowing three or more runs in each and struggling with walks. Rockford expects deGrom to deliver a bounce-back performance, specifically mentioning deGrom likely pitching five scoreless innings against a weak Mariners offense. Though he acknowledges Texas has had offensive struggles despite their solid record, he noted they have scored six runs in three of their last five games, demonstrating sufficient hitting form for them to pull out the win comfortably.

Kenny G leans toward backing Jacob deGrom and the Texas Rangers against Seattle, citing a clear pitching advantage. Despite mixed results (stellar versus Boston, shaky versus Tampa), deGrom’s potential dominance (six strikeouts, no runs in best outing) gives Texas an advantage compared to Mariners starter Bryce Miller, who struggled against weak offenses Oakland and San Francisco. Although the Rangers offense and bullpen have been below average, Kenny believes that deGrom can set the tone, while Miller’s poor early-season form (5.73 ERA) raises red flags. This makes Texas a favorable betting option in Kenny's eyes.

Kyle Purviance firmly backs Jacob deGrom and the Rangers' first five innings run line against Bryce Miller and the Mariners. He underscored deGrom's historical dominance in the first five innings, referencing an extraordinary streak of around 22 consecutive starts without conceding a run within that span. Despite acknowledging deGrom has struggled in his last outing, Purviance still emphasized his trust, supported by the Rangers' recent strong offensive form. He particularly pointed out Bryce Miller's recent shaky performances and the Rangers' capacity to quickly pile up runs, suggesting good betting value picking Texas on the first five run line at likely small plus money.

Drew Martin identifies Rangers ace Jacob deGrom as an excellent value at only minus 120 against the Mariners. Despite injury concerns, deGrom remains an elite starter with a strong early-season showing (9:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 3.3 ERA, velocity topping 97 mph). Drew contrasts this with Mariners' Bryce Miller, currently struggling (0-2, 6 ERA, 13 hits and five walks allowed in 11 innings against weak lineups including Giants and A's). Drew believes Miller may improve later this season but argues the Rangers' potent lineup will continue his struggles tonight. Therefore, laying a short price with deGrom is Drew's best bet of the day.

Kyle Purviance believes Jacob deGrom's strikeout prop holds betting value if bookmakers provide a reasonable line. He pointed to deGrom throwing only 73 pitches but still striking out six against Boston, showing efficiency and strikeout upside. Purviance speculated that sportsbooks might set the line around 8.5 strikeouts, which he considers unreasonable, but believes a line of 6.5 would attract heavy betting action to the over. His analysis suggests watching closely for a market mispricing rather than automatically betting regardless of the number posted.

Dylan Rockford recommends backing the Rangers on the run line at +125, primarily due to Jacob deGrom's strong opening performance (five scoreless innings, two hits, six strikeouts) against a solid Red Sox lineup. He believes the Rays' recent offensive numbers have been artificially inflated due to weak competition (Pirates and Rockies), anticipating a regression when facing tougher pitching. Rockford also notes the Rangers' bullpen as decent and sees limited scoring opportunities for Tampa in this spot. With his projection having Rangers comfortably winning and returning home, he's confident that the run line at plus money shows clear betting value.

Bettor Mark acknowledged Jacob deGrom's outstanding performance in his first start coming back from injury but advised caution moving forward in the short-term, predicting that deGrom's pitch count and innings would stay closely monitored. Despite looking great, Mark predicted deGrom will remain "babied" by the Rangers to preserve health, limiting DFS upside regarding strikeouts or pitcher-outs props. Mark preferred waiting to see deGrom's durability further unfold before targeting props involving him, especially against a Rays offense capable of making innings tough.

Daniel Vreeland advocates strongly for a No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bet between the Rays and Rangers based heavily on the pitching matchup in the first inning. Jacob deGrom looked dominant in his inaugural outing against a tough Red Sox offense, allowing just four baserunners over five scoreless innings, posting six strikeouts. Vreeland emphasized the Rays' lineup as notably weaker and cooling off offensively, implying a skill gap deGrom could exploit early. Additionally, Tampa's starter Taj Bradley showed reliability in his previous start, holding a relatively weak-hitting Rangers lineup in check until the fifth inning. The Rangers currently rank 28th in the MLB, managing just 2.9 runs per game, further bolstering the case for this NRFI pick.

Greg Peterson advises playing under the total (8.5 runs) in the Boston vs Texas matchup. Despite Jacob deGrom being 37 years old, being healthy to open the season significantly boosts his effectiveness — he carries a brilliant 2.07 ERA and 2.12 FIP since 2018. Richard Fitts also looked promising in Spring Training and impressed late last season (1.74 ERA over four starts). The Rangers lineup was relatively uninspiring at home last year (ranked 18th in runs/game), further suggesting Peterson’s projected total (7.8 runs) is lower than current odds indicate.

Bettor Mark suggested potential value in fading Jacob deGrom’s total recorded outs for his first season start against Boston. He reasoned that deGrom might be on a shorter leash given it’s his initial start of the season, creating appeal to bet under his total outs prop. Although acknowledging an attractive price on the Red Sox money line (+166), Mark favored betting against deGrom's ability to go deep into this game as the sharpest play.