The Bettor Mark fired an official half-unit on the Nationals at +185, calling it the most mispriced number on Friday’s board. He trusts Jake Irvin more than the betting market does and thinks Arizona is entering a "fade territory" stretch despite Merrill Kelly’s solid surface stats (5–2, 3.52 ERA). Mark pointed to Washington’s right-hand-heavy lineup metrics—top-10 in wRC+ versus righties over the last 14 days—and noted that Chase Field’s humidor has played more neutral this season, which lessens Arizona’s usual home-field run suppression. He expects a competitive duel early but believes the Nats’ bullpen gives them a viable path to steal it late.

Lonte Smith echoed the value on Washington but isolated the first-five inning line to avoid the Nationals’ 5.22 bullpen ERA. Irvin has delivered at least six frames in five of his last six turns, giving up a single run or less in three of them, while Atlanta’s sticks have been ice-cold—sub-210 team average and under three runs per nine over the last ten. Holmes, meanwhile, has ceded five-plus innings in three straight and owns a 1.42 WHIP. Lonte expects Irvin’s pitch-efficient style to keep Washington within striking distance early and prefers the reduced variance of the F5 market.

Scott Reichel grabbed Nationals +145, calling the price on Atlanta and slumping starter A.J. Holmes "way too steep." Reichel highlighted Jake Irvin’s quietly solid month—four of his last five outings at three earned runs or fewer and 6+ innings in three of those starts—which limits exposure to Washington’s shaky pen. Holmes owns a 4.58 ERA and has been tagged for 12 earned across his last 17 innings. Scott also noted the Braves have hit under .220 at Truist Park and are scoring fewer than three runs per game over their last ten. With Irvin’s ground-ball profile playing well against Atlanta’s swing-and-lift approach, Reichel thinks the Nats are undervalued and worth a full-game sprinkle.

Kenny G said the +150 moneyline on Washington is worth a bite because Jake Irvin has quietly been solid (2-1, 3.94 ERA) while Atlanta’s bats look lifeless. Irvin allowed only two earned over 5.1 IP in Cleveland and owns a 15-to-4 K/BB over his last three turns. By contrast the Braves sit 21st in MLB in runs and batting average, scraping together just eight total runs in three games versus Pittsburgh. Kenny noted Grant Holmes has been homer-prone lately (6 bombs in his last three outings, 4.58 ERA overall) and faces a Nats lineup that, although middle-of-the-pack, has Steven Kwan-style on-base pieces like Keibert Ruiz and Nathaniel Lowe who can punish mistakes. Washington’s bullpen is atrocious (7.13 ERA), so he recommended first-five wagers for the timid, but ultimately felt the full-game price is long enough to ride the live dog.

Guy Boston advised taking Jake Irvin under 5.5 hits allowed at ‑150 on DraftKings. Irvin has stayed below this line in four of seven starts (57%) while giving up just 5.29 hits per outing. Two of his three overs were against Philadelphia; removing those blow-ups leaves him 4-for-5 to the under. He also held Cleveland to exactly five hits on June 2 of last season. Recent form is strong—unders in four of his past five with a 4.6-hit average—and Outlier notes the under has cashed in four of Irvin’s last five overall. Cleveland’s lineup helps: the Guardians are bottom-seven versus right-handed pitching with a .237 average and rank 27th in BABIP. Boston concluded that a righty-struggling Guardians lineup plus Irvin’s non-Phillies success make the juice worth paying.

Guy Boston suggested playing Jake Irvin under 5.5 hits allowed at ‑135. The right-hander has stayed below this number in 4 of 7 starts (57%) and in 4 of 5 when the opponent is not the Phillies. Over his last five outings he is averaging just 4.6 hits surrendered. In his only prior meeting with Cleveland (June 2, 2024) he allowed five hits, cashing the under. Boston highlighted that the Guardians rank 23rd in batting average and 28th in BABIP versus right-handed pitching this season. Irvin’s own .230 BAA and 77th-percentile BABIP suppression support the play. With Cleveland’s lineup scuffling and Irvin’s track record solid outside the Philadelphia matchups, Boston expects five hits or fewer again.

Just A Bet Outside played Jake Irvin over 15.5 outs recorded (-115), noting the right-hander has morphed into a strike-throwing, pitch-efficient workhorse. After modest pitch counts in his first two outings, Irvin has gone 18, 21, and 19 outs in his last three starts, thanks to a 6% walk rate and 1.06 WHIP. He has allowed only 3, 4, and 7 total base runners in that stretch, even surviving Coors Field and the Dodgers. The matchup is soft: the Mets rank 21st in average (.233) and 24th in OBP (.308) against righties, with middling walk numbers. They also swing early, offering quick outs. Five of the last seven right-handed opponents—names like Wheeler, Nola, Gray, and even depth arms Palante and Ober—cleared this outs line. With Irvin now stretched to 90+ pitches, the tout felt he needs just one out in the sixth more often than not.

Martin is grabbing plus money with Colorado because Jake Irvin allows 2.5 HR/9 and now has to navigate Coors Field. Despite Colorado’s ugly record, Kyle Freeland is listed and still owns a 52 % ground‑ball rate at home. Martin believes one or two long balls will flip the game and expects oddsmakers to hang +120 or higher on the Rockies. He will list Freeland and play Colorado moneyline.

Jim Sannes favors betting the over 4.5 strikeouts (+114) for Jake Irvin against the Pirates. Irvin impressed against the Dodgers recently, striking out seven batters over six innings in his previous start. The Pirates provide an even easier matchup, carrying a 23.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers since last season. Despite Irvin's modest career strikeout rate (20.3% last year, 17.4% currently), his workload is substantial, as evidenced by the 103 pitches thrown in his last outing, granting sufficient runway to accumulate strikeouts. With this considered, Sannes projects Irvin at approximately 4.96 strikeouts, making this plus-money bet an enticing value.

Kenny G expresses concerns about the Nationals' pitching woes, specifically with Jake Irvin struggling (5.63 ERA) against tough opponents like Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers. Irvin has given up multiple earned runs in each start and the Nationals have lost all three of his starts. The Nationals' bullpen ERA close to six is one of the league's worst, overshadowing their middling offensive production (12th in runs scored and batting average). Although the Pirates offense has also struggled (dead last in batting average and slugging percentage), Kenny slightly prefers backing Pittsburgh at home (-125), given Mitch Keller's recent strong performance and Washington's overall pitching struggles.

Guy Boston recommended betting Jake Irvin's over 5.5 hits allowed at plus-money, highlighting that in both starts this season Irvin exceeded this line, averaging 7 hits per game. Irvin's faced elite offenses early this year like the Phillies and Diamondbacks, both top-10 hitting teams, and now faces the Dodgers' loaded lineup. In his last appearance last season against the Dodgers, he allowed 12 hits in a blowout loss. Dodgers ranked fourth-best last season and remain top-10 in batting average vs right-handed pitching over their last 30 games. Considering these consistent trends and the Dodgers' powerful offense, Boston sees good value at plus 110 odds available on DraftKings.

Based on Derek Carty's wagering analysis from EV Analytics, Jake Irvin's under 4.5 strikeouts (-100) prop bet against the Dodgers is recommended. Irvin had difficulty generating strikeouts in his last outing, registering only two strikeouts. Wednesday's matchup projects a 58% probability of going under, constituting solid expected value for bettors ($15.12 EV). Recent struggles suggest Irvin is unlikely to significantly improve strikeout rates immediately, making the under bet especially attractive.

Eric Lindquist strongly advises targeting Jake Irvin tonight after highlighting significant regression potential. Lindquist explains Irvin dramatically outperformed underlying metrics last season (4.41 actual ERA versus 4.31 expected ERA) and started this season even more poorly with a 9.15 expected ERA, boding poorly for upcoming matchups. He argues Irvin's pitch mix and inflated prior year stats make him a clear regression candidate and excellent offensive target, particularly with left-handed hitters.

Scott Reichel sees clear value in taking the Nationals and Jake Irvin as underdogs because he considers Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo extremely unpredictable and overpriced at roughly -150. Luzardo, a once highly-touted prospect, has flashing talent but has been up-and-down, especially struggling with consistency. Even though the Nationals bullpen was ineffective on opening day, starter MacKenzie Gore's 13-strikeout performance highlights potential strength in Washington’s starting rotation. Scott recommends betting the Nationals either full game or specifically the first five innings to mitigate bullpen risk and capitalize on Luzardo’s volatility.