Jim Sannes favors betting the over 4.5 strikeouts (+114) for Jake Irvin against the Pirates. Irvin impressed against the Dodgers recently, striking out seven batters over six innings in his previous start. The Pirates provide an even easier matchup, carrying a 23.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers since last season. Despite Irvin's modest career strikeout rate (20.3% last year, 17.4% currently), his workload is substantial, as evidenced by the 103 pitches thrown in his last outing, granting sufficient runway to accumulate strikeouts. With this considered, Sannes projects Irvin at approximately 4.96 strikeouts, making this plus-money bet an enticing value.

Kenny G expresses concerns about the Nationals' pitching woes, specifically with Jake Irvin struggling (5.63 ERA) against tough opponents like Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers. Irvin has given up multiple earned runs in each start and the Nationals have lost all three of his starts. The Nationals' bullpen ERA close to six is one of the league's worst, overshadowing their middling offensive production (12th in runs scored and batting average). Although the Pirates offense has also struggled (dead last in batting average and slugging percentage), Kenny slightly prefers backing Pittsburgh at home (-125), given Mitch Keller's recent strong performance and Washington's overall pitching struggles.

Guy Boston recommended betting Jake Irvin's over 5.5 hits allowed at plus-money, highlighting that in both starts this season Irvin exceeded this line, averaging 7 hits per game. Irvin's faced elite offenses early this year like the Phillies and Diamondbacks, both top-10 hitting teams, and now faces the Dodgers' loaded lineup. In his last appearance last season against the Dodgers, he allowed 12 hits in a blowout loss. Dodgers ranked fourth-best last season and remain top-10 in batting average vs right-handed pitching over their last 30 games. Considering these consistent trends and the Dodgers' powerful offense, Boston sees good value at plus 110 odds available on DraftKings.

Based on Derek Carty's wagering analysis from EV Analytics, Jake Irvin's under 4.5 strikeouts (-100) prop bet against the Dodgers is recommended. Irvin had difficulty generating strikeouts in his last outing, registering only two strikeouts. Wednesday's matchup projects a 58% probability of going under, constituting solid expected value for bettors ($15.12 EV). Recent struggles suggest Irvin is unlikely to significantly improve strikeout rates immediately, making the under bet especially attractive.

Eric Lindquist strongly advises targeting Jake Irvin tonight after highlighting significant regression potential. Lindquist explains Irvin dramatically outperformed underlying metrics last season (4.41 actual ERA versus 4.31 expected ERA) and started this season even more poorly with a 9.15 expected ERA, boding poorly for upcoming matchups. He argues Irvin's pitch mix and inflated prior year stats make him a clear regression candidate and excellent offensive target, particularly with left-handed hitters.

Scott Reichel sees clear value in taking the Nationals and Jake Irvin as underdogs because he considers Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo extremely unpredictable and overpriced at roughly -150. Luzardo, a once highly-touted prospect, has flashing talent but has been up-and-down, especially struggling with consistency. Even though the Nationals bullpen was ineffective on opening day, starter MacKenzie Gore's 13-strikeout performance highlights potential strength in Washington’s starting rotation. Scott recommends betting the Nationals either full game or specifically the first five innings to mitigate bullpen risk and capitalize on Luzardo’s volatility.