Derek Carty recommended Jake Meyers OVER 0.5 HR at +1100. THE BAT X assigns a 10% probability, good for a $19.28 expected value. Carty points to a major gap between Meyers’ actual wOBA (.287 since 2024) and his model’s expected mark (.323), framing it as pure bad luck that should normalize. If the underlying quality of contact regresses the way the projection anticipates, the long‑shot home‑run ticket becomes lucrative.