Palyo labeled Jesse Winker his favorite lottery ticket, taking the over 0.5 HR at a juicy +800. The veteran lefty owns a 43% fly-ball rate and 57% pull rate, indicators that more homers are coming despite only one so far. He invoked the old DFS mantra “Winker vs. sinkers,” pointing out that Cardinals starter Erick Fedde leans on a low-90s sinker/cutter/slider mix for 90% of his pitches, posts a 92.2% zone-contact rate, and records just a 7.6% swinging-strike rate—meaning lots of hittable pitches. Weather models call for wind blowing out to right at Busch Stadium, and for the BvP crowd Winker is 4-for-12 (.333) with two career homers off Fedde. All factors combine for a live longshot.

Guy Boston said Jesse Winker is worth a half-unit over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at +110 because of a lopsided pitcher–batter history and a dream platoon split. Winker owns a 6-for-10 lifetime line (.750 AVG, .800 OBP) off Trevor Williams, and Williams has been crushed by lefties in 2025 (7.50 ERA, .433 AVG allowed, 2.2 HR/9, .469 wOBA). Although Winker is hitting only .200 with a 79 WRC+ on the year and has cleared this line in just 26 % of games, Boston expects the matchup to outweigh the cold surface stats. He framed it as a plus-money dart with clear situational edges rather than a full-unit core play.

Beermakersfan highlighted Jesse Winker as the key value piece to offset Soto’s price or to use as a one‑off punt. Winker costs just $3,100 on DraftKings and $2,500 on FanDuel yet owns a .351 wOBA against righties this year and profiles well versus the same Michaelis slider/fastball/sinker trio. Michaelis has been hammered by lefties ( .400+ wOBA, 53% hard‑contact ), so Beer thinks Winker offers 5X salary‑multiplying upside and keeps Mets stacks affordable.