Guy Boston Sports targeted Jo Adell for an under style prop (hits, total bases, or over on strikeouts) because Charlie Morton is expected to throw a "ton of curveballs." Adell owns a .137 wOBA and a 44% strike-out rate versus curveballs this season, numbers Boston called ugly enough that he’s "considering [it] a final play" despite Adell homering the last time they faded him.

Guy Boston Sports is eyeing Jo Adell UNDER props (0.5 hits or 1.5 total bases) because Charlie Morton throws his curveball 36% of the time and Adell has been hopeless against that pitch: .137 wOBA with a 44% strikeout rate this season. Despite Adell burning him with a first-AB homer the last time he faded him, the tout will go back to the well, reasoning that Detroit’s game plan will feature a steady diet of breakers and Adell’s 34.2% whiff rate versus curveballs makes multiple productive plate appearances unlikely.

Bill Harrelson advised betting Jo Adell NOT to score a run. Adell has failed to record a run in 7 of his last 10 games, including four straight, and is 14-for-20 (70 %) to the "no run" side. Historically against Seattle he is 11-for-18 (61 %) in this prop. Over a 92-game 2025 sample his under rate is 64 %, and last season’s 127-game sample was similar at 61 %. He sees roughly four plate appearances per game but has been mediocre at the plate (.240 AVG versus both righties and lefties). Thursday’s opposing starter, Evans, allows a .255 average to right-handed hitters—9.5 % lower than his season average—further reducing Adell’s chances of scoring. Every major pick-em site, including Underdog, posts the no-run side as the favorite, so Harrelson expects Adell’s cold streak to continue.

Harrelson took Jo Adell to NOT score a run. Adell has failed to reach home in 7 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20 (70 %). Versus Seattle he has stayed under in 11 of the last 18 meetings. Season-long data (92 games) shows a 64 % under rate, and last season’s 61 % adds confidence in a larger sample. He noted opposing starter Evans is tougher on right-handed bats (overall .277 BAA drops to .255 vs RHB, a 9.5 % improvement), while Adell is merely a .240 hitter from either side. With sportsbooks and pick-em apps unanimously pricing the under, Harrelson expects another scoreless night from the Angels outfielder.

It’s The Final Round backed Joe Adell to collect a hit against Braves right-hander Bryce Elder. Elder has been torched by righties recently, giving up a .432 batting average in his past three outings while leaning heavily on a sinker (52 % usage) and slider (42 %), both allowing opponents over .280. Adell owns a .308 average versus right-handers, hit .286 against sinkers and .385 against sliders in June, and is on a 12-game hit streak. Those splits moved the tout to bet Adell over 0.5 hits and view him as a dependable DFS play while he stays hot.

It’s The Final Round likes Jo Adell to keep his 11-game hit streak alive against Didier Fuentes. Fuentes throws a four-seam fastball 61 % of the time and has yielded a staggering .571 average on it through two big-league starts, plus a sweeper 31 % of the time. Adell hit .333 against four-seamers in June and .333 against sweepers in early July, while batting .333 versus right-handers over the past 10 days. Fuentes has allowed a .400 BAA overall, so the tout believes Adell 1+ hit is very live with home-run upside if Fuentes’ fastball command remains suspect.

Bill Harrelson said he is taking Jo Adell for more than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs against Atlanta. Harrelson highlighted that Adell has cashed this prop in 8 of his last 10 outings and 5 of his last 6, averaging 3.5 HRR in that span with individual game lines of 5-5-3-4 across the most recent four. Adell is getting 4.4 plate appearances per contest and owns a .246 average versus right-handed pitching, slightly better than his .243 overall mark. The matchup is what really sold Harrelson: Braves right-hander Fuentes is surrendering a .378 batting average overall and an eye-popping .400 to right-handed hitters. With both the hitter and the matchup red-hot, sportsbooks like DraftKings (-125) and Sleeper (-137) are already juicing the over. Harrelson is happy to follow the numbers and ride Adell’s heater.

B Wade backed Joe Adell to go Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs against Fuentes. Adell owns an active 11-game hit streak and is averaging three combined HRR over his last 10 appearances despite a season-long .246 average versus righties. Wade pointed out that Fuentes has been demolished in both of his 2025 starts and expects the Angels to knock him out early, giving Adell multiple chances to cash this by the fifth inning.

Lonte Smith called Jo Adell’s stolen-base prop one of his favorite angles Friday night. Miami’s Sandy Alcantara has long struggled to control the run game and is allowing 0.48 steals per inning this year. Adell owns 97th-percentile sprint speed and has attempted a swipe once every 13 times on base in 2024. With Alcantara’s road ERA ballooning to 14.81 and his walk rate spiking (10 BB in 10.1 IP away from Miami), Smith anticipates plenty of traffic for Los Angeles hitters. The rookie outfielder is being offered at +300 in most markets; Smith would play anything north of +220 and sprinkled a same-game combo with the Angels’ team total Over, expecting multiple stolen-base opportunities against Miami’s battery.

Kyle Purviance said he is taking a home-run flyer on Jo Adell tomorrow against Pittsburgh. Purviance tied the play to the same Carmen Mlodzinski fade he broke down earlier: the Pirates right-hander carries a 2.00 WHIP and leans on a four-seam/sinker mix that lives belt-high, generating only a 12 % swinging-strike rate. Right-handed power hitters have posted a .289 ISO against that profile, and Adell brings a 94th-percentile barrel rate plus a career-best 45 % fly-ball rate since his call-up. Purviance calculated a 7.3 % home-run probability—roughly +1270 fair odds—so he will fire on any book listing 14-to-1 or longer.

Guy Boston is taking the under for Jo Adell at 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs today. He highlighted several key matchup splits to support the pick. Jo Adell historically struggles against right-handed pitching, batting under .200 since last season. Against Zach Littell specifically, Adell has made two plate appearances without reaching base. Digging deeper into pitch-level details, Littell's slider induces a 33% strikeout rate versus Adell, and his splitter dropped Adell's weighted on-base average (wOBA) significantly to 0.070. Littell also predominantly pitches the sinker up-and-in and slider outside, locations Adell is weaker against. With favorable pricing at -130 to -140 available, Boston indicated this player prop under has a solid chance of making his final selections today.