Kenny G leaned to the Blue Jays at +102, arguing Jose Berrios offers the far safer floor than Shane Baz right now. Baz owns a 5.33 ERA and has been torched in three straight outings—five earned in Miami, three runs and two homers to these same Jays, then a blow-up versus Philadelphia at Tropicana. Berrios is coming off one of his few rough turns but still holds the better xERA and a 50% ground-ball rate that travels well in a dome. Tampa’s offense ranks 24th in runs and 20th in batting average, while its pen (3.40 ERA) masks how hard it is for the lineup to build a cushion. Toronto is 11-9-1 to the under on the road, showing their games stay tight, and Kenny expects another low-scoring grind where one big Berrios inning could be enough. With Baz’s command in question and the Rays just 13-18 at home, Kenny sees value on the dog money line even if he stops short of a ‘pin comment’ play.

Razzle endorsed Jose Berrios as a primary pitcher on the slate. The right-hander owns a 5.5 strikeout prop that is juiced to the UNDER, yet he still carries +160 win odds thanks to facing an Angels lineup Razzle loves to attack for its 25% K rate and bottom-10 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Berrios is coming off his best fantasy outing of the year and, although manager John Schneider has kept him in the upper-80s pitch range, Razzle believes the matchup plus Anaheim’s spacious park give him six-inning, quality-start potential. With Toronto a slight favorite in a game total sitting at 8.5, Berrios offers both reasonable floor and a path to 20+ DraftKings points without needing elite strikeout volume.

Bryan Zarpentine backed Jose Berrios under 5.5 hits allowed. The Angels have the fewest home hits in MLB and have scored one run or fewer in four of their past nine. Berrios has surrendered five hits or fewer in four of his last six starts and boasts a 2.60 ERA on the road, yielding less than a hit per inning. Tuesday’s eight-run outburst by L.A. was labeled an outlier, giving Zarpentine confidence the right-hander can suppress contact in Anaheim.

Derek Carty advised taking UNDER 5.5 strikeouts on Jose Berrios at -140. THE BAT X projects a 35% chance of six or more punch-outs, translating to a 65% win probability and +$15.06 expected value on the under. Berrios’ current 7.97 K/9 outpaces his true-talent 7.51 K/9, suggesting recent positive variance. With the Angels owning a middling whiff rate and the game in a neutral strikeout environment, Carty expects regression to pull Berrios below the 6-K threshold.

JD Bets bet Jose Berrios over 1.5 walks (−125) against Boston, noting that the right-hander is averaging 2.2 free passes per start in 2024 and has issued at least two in five of his six outings. Boston is the third-most patient lineup in baseball, drawing 4.5 walks per game over the last ten and cashing a first-inning run 70 % of the time, meaning traffic should arrive quickly. With neither club striking out much, JD expects deep counts and thinks Berrios’ shaky command puts him in constant trouble, making the walk prop far safer than strikeout or earned-run alternatives.

Osborne took Over 1.5 walks for Jose Berrios, noting the right-hander has handed out at least two walks in five of six starts this season, including three the last time he faced Boston on April 7. The Red Sox enter the rematch walking at the second-highest clip versus right-handed pitching over the past two weeks and rank fifth in walk rate for the full season. With Berrios struggling to locate and the Sox showing elite plate discipline, Osborne feels two free passes is the floor, not the ceiling.

BetMGM Betting recommended taking Under 5.5 strikeouts on Jose Berrios (-155). The analysis hinges on Berrios generating a league-low 17% whiff rate on first pitches since 2024 and a 20% miss rate vs right-handed hitters—both bottom-10 percentile marks that cap his strikeout upside. Boston’s lineup may strike out vs lefties, but against right-handers it owns MLB’s best hard-hit rate and a bottom-third chase rate, forcing Berrios into contact. With the Red Sox putting just 26% of swings in play on first pitch (lowest in MLB), they extend counts rather than whiff early, further limiting quick K opportunities. BetMGM’s simulation lands Berrios at 4.8 punch-outs, making the Under playable down to ‑150.

Daniel Vreeland laid out a case for betting the No Runs First Inning prop at -130 in Seattle‑Toronto. He pointed to Jose Berrios’ recent bounce‑back stretch—12.2 IP, only 3 ER combined against Boston and Washington—as evidence that he can quiet a Seattle lineup that sits just ahead of Washington and well behind Boston in season‑long run production. On the flip side, Logan Gilbert brings a 2.38 ERA into Saturday and has surrendered more than one earned run in just one of four starts. Vreeland cited league‑wide data (the Pirates’ 0.35 first‑inning runs average was mistakenly referenced but underscores how low‑scoring he expects the frame to be) and the improved pitching matchup compared to Friday’s series opener to justify the NRFI play.

Kenny G highlighted a promising bounce-back scenario for Jose Berrios against Baltimore, noting his improved form following a disastrous start against the Orioles earlier this year. Berrios recently pitched superbly at Boston, delivering seven innings of one-run ball, reflecting steady improvements start-to-start. While wary of Toronto's bullpen struggles (4.25 ERA), Kenny recommended considering Toronto specifically as a first five innings play rather than full-game bets to avoid bullpen risk. This recommendation reflects confidence in Berrios carrying forward his positive momentum early in this matchup.

Kingpin recommends backing Jose Berrios as an underdog play against the Orioles, highlighting Berrios' historical dominance against Baltimore. He holds an impressive career record of 10-2 with a 3.31 ERA against the Orioles and is coming off an excellent performance with 7 innings of 1-run ball versus Boston. The Orioles starter Cade Povich has struggled historically against Toronto (0-2 with an 8.38 ERA). Kingpin believes the right-handed-heavy Jays lineup and Berrios' strong history against Baltimore set him up for success today.

Kyle Purviance made it clear that if Jose Berrios starts against the Orioles, bettors should immediately target the Orioles moneyline or at least consider betting the game over. He recalled that Berrios was shelled badly by the Orioles earlier this season, calling out Berrios' consistently poor performances against Baltimore and his general struggles as key reasons for the advice.

Eric Lindquist recommends betting on the Nationals moneyline at +135 against Jose Berrios and the Blue Jays. Lindquist highlighted Berrios' concerning start to the season, mentioning he surrendered six earned runs on nine hits and two walks over just five innings on Opening Day. Lindquist referenced Berrios' historical inconsistencies as reason to target against him. Despite Trevor Williams of the Nationals having unsustainable peripheral numbers (an elite 277 xWOBA but low whiff percentage), Lindquist prefers betting on Williams and the Nationals against Berrios given the attractive plus-money odds, believing the volatility from Berrios justifies this risk.

Eric Lindquist recommended targeting runs anytime Jose Berrios takes the mound, which indicates skepticism about Berrios' effectiveness. Given Berrios' past volatility and struggles, Lindquist implied that betting the over on total runs scored could be profitable in the matchup between the Nationals and Blue Jays.

Brian Howard liked Jose Berrios' potential to surpass his strikeout prop against the Nationals, who have been struggling excessively with strikeouts. Coming into the discussion, the Nationals were averaging 13 strikeouts per game recently, though they only had 9 that particular day. Howard mentioned that despite Berrios' rough start previously against Baltimore, he remains a pitcher equipped with legitimate strikeout capability. Howard speculated that the line will likely open around 5.5 or 6.5 strikeouts, indicating he would comfortably bet at 5.5 and may also consider 6.5 if priced correctly. He's bullish on Berrios' ability to rebound and exploit Washington's strikeout issues but advises caution if the line is higher.