Mark Zinno recommends fading Justin Verlander early in the matchup against the Phillies due to Verlander's struggles this season. He's allowed 10 earned runs in just 13 innings, surrendering two home runs across three starts. Mark pointed out two of these shaky performances came against weaker hitting teams, the Reds and Mariners. On the other hand, the Phillies lineup remains potent, evidenced by recent scoring output. Additionally, the Giants have been dreadful vs lefties, hitting only .195 (25th in MLB) with the sixth-highest strikeout rate facing left-handed pitching. With the Phillies starting Jesus Luzardo—who has struck out 25 batters over 18 innings—Mark anticipates Verlander getting shelled, making the Phillies first five innings run line a strong play.

Data Skrive pointed to Giants' pitcher Justin Verlander's concerning start (0-0, 6.92 ERA) as a reason that betting on Giants (+130) over the Phillies as underdogs is sound value. The model projects a 5-4 Giants victory despite strong Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo (2-0, 1.50 ERA), noting that Verlander's early season struggles could create higher-than-average variance—precisely the conditions where betting an underdog payoff makes sense.

Greg Peterson strongly suggested fading Justin Verlander and the Giants in favor of the Phillies, recommending Philly on the Run Line (-1.5 at +145). Verlander is off to a poor start this year, holding a 6.92 ERA and surrendering 1.4 home runs per nine innings despite still showing decent strikeout numbers (11.4 Ks per nine). On the flip side, Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo is thriving, limiting opponents to three runs in 18 innings with an impressive 25 strikeouts thus far. The Giants have scored well on the road but Peterson still favors Luzardo's form and sees substantial value betting against Verlander, handicapping Phillies run line at +113.

Drew Martin recommends fading Justin Verlander early this season due to significant concerns. The 42-year-old pitcher has struggled immensely, sporting a glaring 7.00 ERA through his first three starts. Additionally, Verlander hasn't completed six innings once this season. Drew highlights that Verlander is facing a strong Phillies lineup, which compounds the issue, making the Giants a team to avoid betting until Verlander improves his form in future outings.

Dana Lane recommended the Giants moneyline play with Justin Verlander on the mound. Despite Verlander's unimpressive season stats (0-0, 6.92 ERA), Lane is comfortable backing the Giants due to their recent hot form, winning four of their last five and leading MLB at 12-4. Lane also pointed to the brisk 17 mph winds expected at Citizens Bank Park and chilly game temperatures around mid-40s, anticipating these conditions to benefit strong pitching and limit offense. Given the Giants' excellent early-season form and the Phillies' struggles (losers of four out of five), Lane considers getting the Giants at plus money (+$1.26) significantly valuable.

Chris Welsh expressed strong concerns about Justin Verlander's rest-of-season value after he allowed six earned runs in his last start despite striking out nine. Welsh noted Verlander, now in his 40s, is showing significant signs of decline with consistent ERA troubles and getting 'obliterated' in some starts. He emphasized that while occasional strikeouts might still show up, the risk of blowup outings and lingering high ERA is now too high. Welsh specifically stated he'd be comfortable dropping Verlander for favorable matchup streaming pitchers like Zebby Matthews, especially against strikeout-prone teams like the White Sox, due to Verlander's declining fantasy reliability.

Derek Carty from EV Analytics identified Justin Verlander's Wednesday strikeout total prop (over 4.5 strikeouts, -130) as the day's best player prop bet. Verlander has shown impressive spin rates on his fastball at 2400.7 RPM since the beginning of last season, placing him in the 77th percentile among MLB starters. The projection indicates a 73% likelihood of Verlander surpassing this strikeout total, implying substantial expected value (EV) on this wager at $37.56.

Derek Carty identified Justin Verlander's strikeout total prop as offering strong betting value at over 4.5 Ks (-130). The projection model gives this bet a 73% likelihood of hitting, carrying a significant expected value of $37.56. Supporting this take, Verlander's impressive metrics, including a 2400.7 RPM fastball spin rate ranking in the high (77th percentile), suggest he continues to maintain the ability to generate strikeouts consistently. This matchup with the Cincinnati Reds presents an optimal opportunity to surpass his modest set strikeout line.

Kenny G sees Justin Verlander as offering moderate appeal despite an inconsistent start to the season. While Verlander navigated five innings decently against Cincinnati previously (two ER, five strikeouts), his subsequent outing against Seattle was rough, giving up three earned runs alongside a home run over only two and one-third innings. However, Kenny expects Verlander to benefit from playing at home against a struggling Cincinnati lineup ranked below average offensively, including falling performances from Elly De La Cruz. While Kenny tagged the Giants at -145 as a lean rather than a sure thing, highlighting some underlying risks, he sees some value in Verlander's experience and the Giants' elite bullpen (2.13 ERA, top-3 MLB).

Just A Bet Outside recommended backing the Reds to score at least two runs in the first five innings against Justin Verlander, strongly highlighting Verlander's evident decline. Last season, Verlander's ERA ballooned over 5.00, and it currently sits above 6.00. The analyst stressed that Verlander looks hittable at this stage of his career, explicitly saying 'Verlander is toast' and that this is likely his last year. Considering these struggles, bettors should target him by betting the Reds team total over 1.5 runs in the first five innings or over 3.5 for the full game.

Kingpin liked Justin Verlander’s pitching prop of over 6.5 strikeouts against the inexperienced Reds lineup. Even at age 42, Verlander showed no slowdown in effectiveness striking out 7 batters in his Giants debut. Cincinnati's lineup, headlined by Elly De La Cruz, while talented, is still inexperienced and prone to chasing pitches outside the zone. Given the spacious, pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, Kingpin expects Verlander’s veteran presence and talent to allow him to successfully limit Cincinnati bats and comfortably exceed the strikeout total.

Dylan Rockford advised strongly betting on Justin Verlander to surpass his strikeout total against Seattle, recommending laddering up to eight strikeouts. Verlander historically dominates the Mariners with a 22-10 career record, a 2.98 ERA, and approximately seven strikeouts per start against them. Given Seattle's consistent struggles to generate offense—scoring two or fewer runs in four of their seven games—Verlander's matchup is favorable. Rockford also supports betting on the Giants moneyline, citing their impressive recent form and overall team consistency.