Cash Out Sports Picks recommended taking the Atlanta Braves money line against Toronto, highlighting concerns around Kevin Gausman's decreased strikeout ability. Specifically, Gausman's splitter has become much less effective lately, not fooling hitters as it previously did, and his strikeout numbers have dipped significantly over recent starts. This recent trend raises red flags, making him vulnerable against Atlanta. They emphasized confidence in Spencer Schwellenbach to maintain control over the Blue Jays lineup, leading Atlanta to a win.

Kingpin sees value in backing Kevin Gausman over 6.5 strikeouts, highlighting his dominant splitter and Atlanta's slumping, strikeout-prone lineup. Gausman is projected to work deep into the game thanks to his recent effectiveness and durability, which means he has a solid floor to rack up at least 7 Ks.

Mike Noblin advised taking the Over 5.5 strikeouts for Kevin Gausman against the Braves. Noblin cited Gausman's recent dominant 10 strikeout performance against Boston, emphasizing that his splitter looked particularly sharp. He also referenced Gausman's career strikeout rate of 27.3% against the current Braves roster, his typically deep outings averaging at least six innings per start, and outstanding early-season command reflected by a mere 4.4% walk rate. Noblin noted Atlanta's significant vulnerability, ranked third-highest in strikeouts against right-handed pitching, along with five hitters in their lineup who possess over 26% strikeout rates.

Greg Peterson is keen to back Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays at plus-money odds against the Braves. Despite strong pitching from Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach (one run allowed in 20 innings this season), Atlanta's offense has been extremely lackluster, averaging only 2.5 runs per game on the road and under 3.3 overall. Gausman, meanwhile, has been solid with just five earned runs allowed thus far through three starts while maintaining excellent control (only 0.9 home runs and 1.4 walks per nine innings). Peterson handicapped Toronto as favorites at -126, indicating clear betting edge at the current price of +115.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommends placing a bet on the Toronto Blue Jays money line at home against Atlanta, mainly due to Kevin Gausman’s successful history pitching against the Braves. Gausman has recorded a great 2.29 career ERA against ATL across roughly 20 innings pitched, putting Toronto in a strong position on the mound. Coupled with Atlanta's struggles this season—sitting at just 4-11 after a rough start—and their inconsistent offensive production (just 2.44 runs per road game), Toronto appears heavily favored. Toronto is also in better form overall, having won three of their last five and boasting one of MLB's top pitching staffs with a collective ERA of 3.21. All these factors lead Cash Out Sports Picks to confidently back Toronto's money line.

Steve Seagrave highlighted Kevin Gausman's historical difficulties at Fenway Park as reason for fading him against the Red Sox. His career ERA at Fenway is half a run higher than his overall career average, indicating consistent struggles in Boston. Additionally, the top of the Red Sox lineup has been successful against Gausman, particularly Jarren Duran (7 for 19 with five doubles and a home run) and Rafael Devers (9 for 30, also five doubles and a home run). Considering this matchup history, Seagrave expects Boston's hitters to perform well against Gausman, making him wary of trusting the Blue Jays starter here.

JD Bets strongly recommended passing on Kevin Gausman's strikeout prop versus Boston Red Sox due to concerningly volatile recent performances, including a zero strikeout outing recently. Even though Boston hitters rank among the higher strikeout teams, Gausman's recent instability coupled with him giving up three earned runs against the struggling Mets lineup makes him too risky. JD explicitly advises bettors to ignore Gausman props until he regains consistent form.

Guy Boston backed Kevin Gausman to surpass 2.5 earned runs at odds of -120, noting the Red Sox have historically hit him well. Gausman has already exceeded this line in 1 of his 2 starts this season, allowing 3 runs to the Mets in his latest outing. Against Boston specifically, he's gone over 2.5 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 matchups, averaging 2.67 ER per game in those meetings. Boston ranks as the third-best offense last year against right-handed pitchers and currently remains top-five in the last 30 games, signaling consistently strong hitting. Guy Boston believes Boston, coming off two straight losses, will bounce back offensively against Gausman tonight.

Kenny G advocated betting on the Blue Jays at plus-money (+110) against Boston despite potential sweep concerns. He liked Kevin Gausman as a pitching advantage over Boston's struggling Tanner Houck. Gausman, while not dominant, has managed solid outings (3.97 ERA), and Kenny expects him to outperform Houck’s rocky early-season numbers (0-1 with a troubling 6.57 ERA and multiple home runs allowed in consecutive starts). In his view, Toronto’s reliable offensive metrics contrasted favorably against Boston’s misleading offensive totals inflated by two big games versus poor pitching from the Cardinals.

Just A Bet Outside recommended taking Kevin Gausman's strikeout prop under 5.5Ks, citing significant concerns over his sharply declining swing-and-miss ability. Gausman recorded only 4 strikeouts against the Orioles and zero against the Mets this season, despite pitching over five innings in each game. Focusing on his splitter, JABO noted its steep drop-off from a 22% swinging strike rate in 2023 down to just 5% this year, highlighting the pitch's diminished effectiveness. Furthermore, while the Red Sox maintain a seemingly average 23% strikeout rate overall against righties, their rate at Fenway Park is drastically lower at just 15.5%, third-best in MLB. Additionally, the analyst emphasized that Rafael Devers has had previous success hitting Gausman, making Boston's lineup even less strikeout-prone. Given Fenway Park's hitter-friendly environment and Gausman's decreased ability to miss bats, this bet is strongly supported by data and recent form.

Kingpin saw value in backing Toronto as road underdogs behind ace Kevin Gausman against the Red Sox (+115 moneyline). Noting Boston’s hot offensive start—led by Rafael Devers—they still emphasized Gausman’s elite strikeout ability and how his splitter is extremely tough, even against top lineups. Gausman, coming off a 10-strikeout start, historically fares well against aggressive Boston hitters. With Toronto’s own impressive offense (Vladenmir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette) able to scratch out runs against Tanner Houck and the Boston bullpen, Kingpin believes the pitching edge makes the Jays strong value at plus odds.

Derek Carty recommended betting over 5.5 strikeouts (-110 odds) on Kevin Gausman as he holds a 61% projection of succeeding with the bet, yielding an expected value of $18.42. The model pointed to the elite pitch framing skills of Alejandro Kirk, the Blue Jays catcher who will be catching for Gausman, greatly enhancing strikeout potential. Additionally, Gausman's consistent and generous workload since last season further supports the recommendation.

Lonte Smith supports backing the Blue Jays with Kevin Gausman against the Mets, highlighting Gausman's solid initial outing (2 earned runs across 6 innings pitched). Smith mentioned Toronto's excellent hitting (.300 team batting average) and their four consecutive unders, reflecting strong pitching form. Furthermore, Smith pointed to the Mets' inconsistent offense, batting under .200 so far, providing a clear advantage to the Blue Jays in this matchup and making them a strong betting recommendation.