Lonte Smith grabbed the Royals at +120 because Kris Bubic is quietly shoving: 12 consecutive scoreless innings, zero homers allowed in his last five starts and only one outing with more than two runs surrendered in that span. Smith noted the contact suppression—just 1 HR over five games—makes Kansas City live even in a tough park. Framber Valdez, meanwhile, has dropped four of his five decisions and has been tagged for 11 earned across two of those turns. Houston’s form has been see-saw at best, alternating wins and losses for two weeks. Given the Royals’ steadier recent play and Bubic’s spike in swinging-strike rate, Smith declared the underdog price too tempting to pass.

JD Bets locked in Kris Bubic over 4.5 strikeouts at -120, calling it his favorite play of the game. Bubic has eclipsed this number in four of five 2024 starts (80% hit rate) with game logs of 8, 8, 5, 6, and 6 Ks before a 4-strikeout blip versus Houston. Baltimore provides the perfect get-right spot: the Orioles rank 28th in strikeout rate, whiffing 9.3 times per game overall and 9.7 on the road. JD’s spreadsheet showed individual K-rates north of 30% for half the projected lineup, with several hitters—Mountcastle, Santander, Mullins—sporting 33–50% punch-out clips against lefties. He expects Bubic to work at least five frames, enough to fan the required five batters and cash the "EV play." JD reminded listeners to shop multiple books for the best price but said anything up to -135 is playable.

Beermakersfan tabbed Chris Bubic as his favorite SP, noting that the lefty already owns two 8‑strikeout outings in four starts (nearly 7 K per start). Colorado is the perfect opponent to spike a ceiling; only Minnesota is striking out more vs LHP, and the projected Rockies lineup features six hitters above a 33 % K‑rate (several north of 40 %). With Kansas City favored and pitching weather neutral, Bubic offers a sturdy strikeout floor plus realistic double‑digit K upside at a mid‑range salary, making him a core play in both cash games and GPPs.

Brian Howard targeted Kris Bubic’s alternate strikeout ladders against Colorado, taking 8+ Ks at +115 and a sprinkle on 9+ at +225. He highlighted the Rockies’ league‑worst 31.7% strike‑out rate on the road and their futility versus four‑seam/changeup pitchers—the exact mix Bubic uses 75% of the time. Savant data shows eight of nine projected Colorado starters carry a whiff rate over 25% against four‑seamers, and five eclipse 30% versus changeups. Bubic has already reached eight punch‑outs twice this month (Milwaukee and Baltimore) and owns a career‑best 14.5% swinging‑strike rate, so Howard believes the ceiling is worth chasing even if the standard 5.5 line is juiced to –170.

Guy Boston sees a good underdog opportunity backing Kansas City Royals at around +135 against the Yankees. He pointed to uncertainty around Clark Schmidt, who's making his season debut after returning from injury, creating vulnerability. Kris Bubic, Kansas City's starter, has shown vastly improved form this season, especially against right-handed hitters, despite historical struggles versus lefties. Even acknowledging potential regression for Bubic facing a potent Yankees lineup, Guy Boston feels comfortable taking a calculated risk on Kansas City to pull off an upset against an unstable and rusty returner in Schmidt.

Jimmy Adams highlighted Kris Bubic's spectacular start to the season, portraying him as an emerging ace. Bubic has maintained a stellar ERA under 1.00 through his first three starts and ranks in the 87th percentile in pitching run value. Adams specifically praised his elite performance metrics, including a high chase rate, excellent whiff percentage, strong strikeout rates, minimal walks, and significant ground ball production. With Bubic consistently delivering lengthy starts—at least six innings each outing—Adams is highly optimistic about his continued success, recommending bets backing his excellent current form.

Gary Sheffield Jr. enthusiastically recommended backing Kris Bubic after an impressive start, ranking him as one of the league's top pitchers. Calling his performances "incredible" with a "sensational arm," Sheffield strongly supports investing in Bubic in fantasy and betting given his standout ability this season.

Kenny G strongly sees betting value on the Royals at plus 140 against the Yankees, primarily due to Kris Bubic's excellent early-season form (0.96 ERA). Bubic started impressively by holding Milwaukee scoreless and only allowed one unearned run against Baltimore. Although his last start against Cleveland was somewhat less dominant (6 innings, 2 ER), he has demonstrated resilience and ability to manage decent lineups. Kenny believes Clarke Schmidt's return from a shoulder injury introduces uncertainty and potential vulnerability for the Yankees, who have struggled offensively lately, scoring just three runs total in the first two series games against Kansas City. He views Bubic's current strong form against the Yankees' inconsistency as an ideal underdog scenario to back the Royals for a potential upset.

Cash Out Sports Picks strongly recommends betting the Royals money line, primarily because of Kris Bubic's outstanding early-season pitching. Bubic has showcased dominance, posting an ERA and WHIP both under one, with 21 strikeouts in just 18.2 innings through three starts. Facing the Yankees at Yankee Stadium, his lefty arm should help neutralize New York's power-hitting left-handed batters. In contrast, Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt is making his season debut after being sidelined with injuries, likely leading to rust. While the Royals haven't fully clicked offensively yet, Schmidt's return could allow them to find their footing. Given these circumstances, backing the Royals at positive odds offers serious betting value.

Guy Boston is bullish on Kris Bubic against Cleveland. Bubic has started this year extremely well, throwing six scoreless innings against Milwaukee and 6.2 shutout innings vs Baltimore previously. Now facing a Cleveland Guardians lineup that Guy Boston finds unconvincing, particularly against left-handed pitching, he sees another strong outing coming from Bubic here. Additionally, he noted Guardian struggles against lefties as a key component, making an under or first-five-innings under attractive due to pitching strength on both sides.

Dylan Rockford sees significant value in backing Kris Bubic to record a win at +170 against the Cleveland Guardians. Rockford emphasizes Bubic's dominant start to the season, highlighting a strong 32% K-rate and an impressive 2.49 SIERA as the best among starters on the slate. Rockford criticizes Cleveland despite their recent sweep of the White Sox, noting the team's weak performance versus left-handed pitching with only a .317 wOBA. Moreover, Rockford voices doubt about Guardians pitcher Tanner Bibee, highlighting his poor form to start the season and points out this would be Bibee's first home start. He also suggests doubling down by betting Bubic's strikeout prop, expecting around seven strikeouts, reinforcing his confidence in the Royals starter.

Derek Farnsworth highlighted Kris Bubic as an appealing DFS option due to significant strikeout potential and excellent underlying metrics. Over the last two seasons, Bubic is carrying an elite 32% strikeout rate paired with a strong 2.19 SIERA and 2.23 ERA. His swinging strike rate of 15%, combined with Cleveland's lower projected total of just 3.81 runs, positions him favorably. Additionally, Bubic has demonstrated solid groundball (56%) and excellent hard contact metrics (low 17% hard hit rate), further supporting his appeal in DFS formats at a modest salary of just $200 (presumably a misprint meant to indicate DFS affordability).

Scott Reichel advised betting on the Kansas City Royals at plus money against the Cleveland Guardians, specifically citing Kris Bubic as a clear pitching edge over Tanner Bibee. Bubic has pitched exceptionally well this season, allowing zero runs through two starts, while Bibee was notably poor in his recent start, surrendering 7 total runs and 4 home runs in just 4 innings pitched. Reichel expressed skepticism about the Guardians sweeping a struggling White Sox lineup being meaningful, believing both teams are otherwise similar in talent level, making the plus money odds on Kansas City attractive.

Eric Lindquist advised betting Kansas City starter Kris Bubic in the first five innings against Cleveland, emphasizing Bubic's impressive underlying metrics. Bubic displayed significant improvement last season with a 1.81 expected ERA over limited innings, and prior had a respectable 4.04 expected ERA the year before. Lindquist praised Bubic's recent performance, highlighting a refined arsenal featuring a nasty sweeper-slider-change combination leading to increased pitching run values. In contrast, opponent Tanner Bibee shows worrying signs including a 5.08 expected ERA this year, and Lindquist expressed doubts about Bibee's pitch mix and hard-hit susceptibility. Lindquist recommended isolating Bubic's matchup by playing the first five innings line (currently plus 106 on FanDuel), avoiding the Guardians' stronger bullpen.