Derek Carty recommended betting under 3.5 strikeouts for Kyle Freeland (+130 odds) at Coors Field, given a 53% probability and significant $22.29 expected value. Coors Field ranks as the number one venue in MLB for suppressing strikeouts due to altitude-driven environmental factors, making this an attractive betting opportunity against Freeland's strikeout potential.

Joe Osborne strongly recommended betting Kyle Freeland under 17.5 total outs recorded against the Phillies, citing clear recency bias inflating the current market. Despite Freeland's strong season debut where he registered 18 outs against Tampa Bay without giving up a run, Osborne views that start as an outlier. He pointed to Freeland's poor historical performance, emphasizing that he's posted back-to-back seasons with an ERA over five and highlighted surprisingly worse road splits with a 5.98 ERA away from Coors Field last year. Osborne also noted that Freeland faces an elite Phillies offense, which currently ranks second in MLB in OPS just behind the Yankees and leads the National League in offensive productivity to start the season. Adding to his rationale, Osborne mentioned that the Rockies bullpen is fresh and ready to act quickly, as Hermann Marquez provided six innings in the previous game, meaning the Rockies won't hesitate to pull Freeland early if he's ineffective.

JD Bets highlighted Kyle Freeland's struggles and recommended taking the over on Freeland's earned runs allowed prop (set at 2.5) against Tampa. Freeland's spring numbers were shaky, posting a 6.16 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, following a disappointing previous season where he went 5-8 with a 5.24 ERA. Additionally, JD pointed out how Tampa has multiple hitters that excel against left-handed pitching, with several strong batting averages including a standout matchup for Christopher Morel (2 home runs in 6 at-bats vs Freeland). Considering Freeland's poor form and Tampa's strength against lefties, JD confidently suggested the earned runs prop as a strong wager.

Eric Lindquist advises betting against Kyle Freeland when he faces Tampa Bay, highlighting Freeland's alarming underlying metrics from 2024. He posted a .279 expected batting average and a .345 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), along with an elevated 10.6% barrel rate—clear indicators of a struggling pitcher. Lindquist also notes this game isn't at Tropicana, which typically is pitcher-friendly, making conditions even more favorable for offense against Freeland. He emphasizes this situational advantage isn't fully accounted for in current betting market pricing, making it an actionable betting opportunity.