Bamford laid out a simple directive: back the Mariners at –120 or play their team-total Over because Lance McCullers Jr. is a ticking time bomb right now. McCullers owns a bloated 1.66 WHIP and a game log littered with blow-ups, making him, in Bamford’s words, “really easy to hit.” Conversely, he expects Logan Gilbert (listed by books as Logan Evans) to keep rolling at T-Mobile Park where the right-hander sports a 2.28 ERA and a 4-2 record. Seattle is chasing Houston in the division, turning this into what Bamford calls “a great spot” for the home side to chip away. He projects four or five Mariner runs as “absolutely live” and sees McCullers’ shaky command feeding extra base-runners for an already motivated lineup. All signs, to him, point toward Seattle in both the side and the offensive prop markets.

Scott Reichel said the safest way to attack the uncertain Dodgers-Astros matchup is to isolate Lance McCullers’ earned-runs line instead of laying a steep –170 without knowing the Dodgers’ starter. Reichel expects the market to hang a juiced 2.5 (or possibly 3.5) and is happy to play the over, noting that oddsmakers clearly anticipate Los Angeles scoring given the price disparity despite an unnamed pitcher. He plans to ‘fade McCullers and pick him to get shelled,’ arguing that any number south of 3 earned runs is worth betting because the Dodgers’ lineup remains dangerous and the ballpark weather does not suppress offense.

Sean Zerillo advised bettors to quit shorting Lance McCullers Jr. because the right-hander’s pitch models show a sharp upward trend since returning from the IL. McCullers opened the season with 97, 87 and 97 Stuff+ marks, but has popped 105 and 115 in his last two starts. His batted-ball ERA has fallen from 5.45 to 3.24 and then 2.82 across that stretch. Zerillo expects continued improvement as the veteran regains full arm strength and said any price fading Houston simply because of McCullers’ early surface numbers is now stale value.

Eric Lindquist recommended betting Lance McCullers to allow more than 2.5 earned runs in Friday’s start against Texas. He noted that McCullers’ trademark strike-out juice has disappeared—just a 15.4 % K-rate through two outings compared to 26-30 % in his prime—and the veteran was yanked after a seven-run inning last time out. Lindquist pointed out that most of the Rangers’ order is right-handed, the very split McCullers used to dominate, but his sinker/cutter combo is no longer missing bats or limiting hard contact. Because Texas profiles as a top-10 offense versus righties and Houston may monitor McCullers’ workload after multiple injury-plagued seasons, Lindquist expects a short leash that still leaves enough time for three earned runs to cross. He would play the prop to –125 or better.

Razzle said Lance McCullers is "in play" as a salary-saver on this slate despite the obvious unknowns. The right-hander is making his first MLB start in nearly two seasons after forearm surgery, so the key variable is how many pitches Houston will actually let him throw. Razzle plans to monitor pre-game reports on pitch count and first-time-through-the-order expectations, but noted that McCullers historically posts a 28% strike-out rate and an elite 57% ground-ball rate—numbers good enough to pay off a sub-$7K DFS tag even in four-to-five efficient innings. The tout recommends treating McCullers as a low-owned GPP dart who can crack 15–18 DraftKings points if he reaches 75 pitches and secures the win bonus.

Morgan framed Lance McCullers as a GPP dart at $7,700. Although the righty hasn’t appeared in the majors since the 2022 World Series, he tossed four and five scoreless innings in his last two Triple-A rehab starts. The White Sox rank bottom-eight in both runs and OPS, so even a limited 5-to-6 inning workload could generate value if McCullers’ stuff is close to form.

Kirby flat-out dismissed Lance McCullers as a fantasy option, stating she has "never had interest" and sees none now despite reports of an upcoming return. The long injury layoff, chronic forearm/elbow issues, and McCullers’ historically bloated walk rate (career 9.8%) make him too risky. She would only consider him in ultra-deep dynasty formats where an IL slot costs nothing; otherwise, she prefers to leave the inevitable first-start pitch count and command hiccups for someone else to endure.